TPJ’S TURNING NC BLUE AWARD 

  The Forsyth County Democratic Party is this week’s recipient of TPJ’S TURNING NC BLUE AWARD.   

  In the race for each county to meet their target of registering a net of 200,000+ new voters for the General Election, Forsyth has surpassed its goal of registering 6,779 new voters.  At the end of the week, Forsyth Democrats registered 6,863 net new Democrats, 101.24% of the target.  

  TPJ extends kudos to the Forsyth County Democratic Party.  Forsyth is the first to cross the voter registration line; it will not be the last. 

  Now, Forsyth Democrats – double it.  

  Who will be next County receiving TPJ’s TURNING NORTH CAROLINA BLUE AWARD?                         

                        PROGRESSING                       

  One component in making Democrats competitive in the North Carolina General Election is registering 200,000 net new registered voters.  Democrats registered 7,306 net new voters during the past week, making solid progress towards that goal.

  The numbers for this week: 

  Our observations: 

1.   As might be expected with a hotly contested Presidential Primary, Democratic registrations outpaced both Republican and Unaffiliated registrations by over 3 to 1.  
 

2.   Republican registrations are simply mired.  Even with an important gubernatorial primary, Republicans had a small net loss in registrations.   
 

3.   Unaffiliated registrations are the lowest recorded this year.  On a percentage basis, Unaffiliated registrations declined year to date by a fractional amount – again a first this year. As discussed below, this is not necessarily a positive development for Democrats.  

  Another component of turning NC POTUS blue in November is improving Democratic Party performance among unaffiliated voters.  In 2004, Sen. Kerry lost Unaffiliated voters by 56% to 44%.  To win in 2008, the Democratic Presidential candidate must narrow that margin by 4% or 52 to 48%.  From our observations to date, a large number of Unaffiliated voters are younger citizens.  Studies of this age group indicate that these voters will vote with Democrats in the Fall.  

  Democrats reached are at 60.69% in the quest for 200,000 net new Democratic registrants. For the election cycle year (which ends in October), we are approaching the half-way milestone and Democrats are clearly on target to reach the goal of 200,000 net new registrations. Every registered voter above that target makes the patch to victory more probable.   

  The chart below lists each county’s target to reach 200,000 new registrations, the number registered as of the end of the past week, the remaining number needed to meet target and the percentage of completion.  Twenty-eight counties are above 50% of quota (highlighted in yellow). Eight counties joined the “50% Club” this week. (County name in bold.)  

  Counties between 30% and 50% are highlighted in green.  With effort, these counties can reach the targets necessary.  Four counties joined the “30/50% Club” this week. (County name in bold.)