The Political Junkies

                        VERY SCARY  

Bush denies the reality for most Americans, an economic recession is underway.   

 Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, International Business Editor of the London Telegraph pens an analysis of the American economy that should strike fear into every American: 

Any doubt about Evans-Pritchard’s assessment should be dispelled by the fact that the Chairman of the US Federal Reserve is now calling on the US Government to do more to stem the tidal wave of home foreclosures.  

Bernanke’s call to forgive portions of sub-prime loans is an anathema to Republican economic policy.  Even as Bernanke is attempting to stem the growing problem, Bush with the aide of Republicans in the US Senate filibuster legislation to help Americans keep their homes: 

Hundreds of thousands of hard working Americans will lose their homes and pay out of their pocket for the basics necessities of life because of Republican policies.  

Had enough?

_____________________________________________

                        “UNITARY” PRESIDENT TO CONGRESS: “GO TO HELL” 

Bush has essentially told Congress to “go to hell,” as he is above the law.  

Bush’s message was delivered this week in the context of the US House authorization of Contempt proceedings against two former Bush administration officials.  Established law requires that the Contempt Citations are referred to the Department of Justice for prosecution.  Bush instructs his Attorney General to ignore the law: 

One editorial writer makes the point: 

No person should be above the law, especially those who are bound by their oath of office to uphold the law. 

Democrats will now move into civil court to enforce the subpoenas, exactly the right move.

If Americans want the rule of law to govern America the message is quite clear; elect Democrats in November.

                        CLUELESS REPUBLICANS

Bush made several startling comments during the past week.  First, the price of gasoline: 

The price of gasoline has already hit $3.59 on the West Coast this week.  Obviously, the President does not read the Washington Post (emphasis added):

Sundstrom is not the only analyst predicting the possibility of $4.00 a gallon gasoline. Bush has obviously not read any of them.

Second, whether America is headed into a recession:

Again, Republicans are simply clueless. 

Bush simply ignores the growing evidence of not only recession, but stagflation:

Simple question for Americans; “had enough?”

 HOW HIGH’S THE WATER

Did Americans ever expect to see these developments within their lifetimes?  First, Americans walking away from their homes:

Second, America has a negative savings rate.  As stagflation rises in the United States, increasing numbers of Americans are borrowing more money than ever to pay their bills:

The economic waters are very high, largely due to Republican economic policy.  Americans will be paying a steep price for those policies.

Them Dems

Dr. Steven Jonas

UPDATED:  MAR 5, 2008 

“GENTLEMAN JOHNNY MCCAIN, PART 3.” 

In this third installment of this series of columns on McCain, we’ll consider the question of just why the Right Wing of the Republican Party doesn’t like McCain (which has also been covered in his usual detail and with his usual passion by my good friend Mickey Walker in this space on Feb. 17, 2008).  It has to be noted that it is remarkable that the most right-wing major party, in relative terms, ever to appear on the American political stage, the current proto-fascist Republican Party, can actually have within it its own Right Wing.  But then again, there was a “left” within the German Nazi Party at the time the Hitler Regime took power on Jan. 30, 1933.  Its nominal head was a man named Gregor Strasser.  He actually believed that the word "socialist” in the full name of the Party, the “National Socialist German Workers Party,” had political and programmatic significance.  Strasser was murdered, along with other potential challengers for power to Hitler within the Party, on the “Night of the Long Knives,” June 30, 1934.  If the Rush-Coulter-Hannity Wing of the Republican Party ever takes full control, John, watch out for your back.  What the Republican Right publicly says it doesn’t like about McCain is well-known.   

They don’t like that: he did not originally support the Bush tax cuts (because he thought that would lead to massive deficits --- how irresponsible can you be?); he was outspokenly critical of Rumsfeld (arguably the worst Secretary of Defense since James Forrestal jumped out of a window of the Bethesda Naval Hospital in 1949); he supported Pres. Bush (!) in trying to do something reasonable about the undocumented aliens problem; he has not been constantly outspoken on the matter of freedom of belief as to when life begins; agreeing with several of the major oil companies (other than the most profitable one. Exxon-Mobil, of course) he thinks that something more than lip-service should be paid to the problem of global warming; he thinks (or thought) that there should be some kind of vague controls on political campaign contributions; he was until very recently against the use of torture by any branch of the US government; he has been against a Constitutional Amendment to levy permanent second-class citizenship on all persona identified as homosexual (although who knows, he might just change his mind on that one any day now too).  That he was one of the few outspoken supporters of the so-called “Surge” and has actually a years-number on the Bush heretofore not clearly stated but clear-as-a-bell-to-anyone-who-bothered-to-look policy of Permanent War counted for naught in the eyes and loud mouths of Limbaugh, Coulter, Hannity, Ingraham and their countless clones in the Right-Wing Radio Scream Machine.

First, isn’t this all so deliciously revealing about what the real agenda of the self-styled “Conservative” wing of the Republican Party really is:

(Ah yes, if only the principal demonizes, the Democrats, could get up the nerve to put this agenda front and center in an election.  Dream on, MacDuff.  But back to McCain.)

And so on and so forth.  However, and this is the main point of this column, I don’t think that McCain’s disagreements on some of these issues are the real reason why the Right-Wing of the Right-Wing Republican Party has lined up against him.  On most of them the differences, even before he has begun to back down from his so-called “principled” positions as on torture and what the Christian Right is all about, are mainly on details.  Despite his carefully cultivated public persona (remember he first ran for President when he was eight years younger than he is now) the man is a long-time right-winger as many liberal and progressive political analysts are pointing out now with regularity.  He has a very high rating from the Right-Wing vote-rating organizations. 

I think that the Scream Machine’s opposition runs deeper than that.  I think that it is absolutely convinced that McCain cannot win, even should he end up running against the current all-time uniter-of-Republicans Hillary Clinton.  And why?  Not because of his policy stands.  McCain first won elective office because of his supposed suffering at the hands of his North Vietnamese captors during the War on Viet Nam.  This is a profile that has been very carefully maintained for all the years that he has been in the Congress. 

Somehow, getting shot down fairly early (1967) while bombing civilians over North Vietnam and then supposedly having been tortured regularly over a five-year period, has qualified him as a “war hero.”   (Funny.  Somehow John Kerry, who really was a war hero and really was decorated on a number of occasions by the United Sates Navy, ended up being disqualified as such by the same Right-Wing Republican Scream Machine.)  This story has formed the political foundation for John McCain since he first entered politics.  But this foundation is beginning to crack and I think that that’s what the Screamers are really afraid of: their party having its nominee forced out sometime later this Spring and then being left with whom?  The Christian Reconstructionist Mike Huckabee?  Or the “tell-me-what-you-want-me-to-be-and-I’ll-be-it” Mormon theocrat?

The stuff about his real behavior as a prisoner-of-war in North Vietnam is already out there, and not on secret, unsigned, unattributed emails like those accusing Barack Obama of being a secret adherent of Osama bin Laden because he went to a secular school on Indonesia and their names rhyme.  No the McCain stuff is on, for example, Ron Paul’s website.  At the Hanoi Hilton McCain was not known as “Gentleman Johnny” but rather as “The Songbird.”  Just consider the following:

“A former Vietnam veteran with top secret clearance says he has personally spoken to numerous POW's who dispute John McCain's claim that he refused to provide information after he was captured and tortured in Hanoi, saying that in fact McCain's code-name was "Songbird" because of his willingness to tell all to avoid torture.

“Jack McLamb served nine years in secret operations in Cambodia and other nations before going on to become one of the most highly decorated police officer's in Phoenix history, winning police officer of the year twice before taking a role as a hostage negotiator for the FBI.

" ‘I know a lot of Vietnam veterans and a few POW's and all the POW's that I've talked to over the years say that John McCain is a lying skunk,’ McLamb told the Alex Jones Show.

" ‘He never was tortured - they were there in the camp with him and then when he came in....he immediately started spilling his guts about everything because he didn't want to get tortured,’ said McLamb, contradicting the official story that McCain only offered his name, rank, serial number, and date of birth.

" ‘The Vietnamese Communists called him the Songbird, that's his code name, Songbird McCain, because he just came into the camp singing and telling them everything they wanted to know,’ said McLamb.” 

This quote is here doubly sourced: http://www.prisonplanet.com/articles...r_tortured.htm; http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=115304.

If this kind of thing is already up, even though it has yet to receive the kind of mainstream media coverage that the totally false charges against Kerry did, one can just imagine what hasn’t come out yet about McCain (in addition to his supposedly vile temper and uncontrollable impulsiveness).  It may well happen that he will not be the Republican nominee or if he is, he will be totally crippled in the campaign.  This, it seems to me, is the only valid reason why the Republican Right-Wing vultures are after him before he is even dead meat.

Mickey Walker

UPDATED:  MAR 2, 2008

THE MCCAIN MUTINY PART II 

I can’t help it, but McCain’s face and demeanor reminds me of Captain Kweeg of the USS Caine, the fictitious ship in the 1954 movie, “The Caine Mutiny.”  The beady eyes, the detached stare and soft-pedaled words mumbled so lightly that one can hardly hear them.  Humphrey Bogart did a smashing job of portraying the disturbed captain of the Caine.  Often, he was at a loss for words when he knew he was caught like the time he forgot to correct ship’s course when reprimanding an officer and Kweeg ran over his own tow line.  Master of denial, Captain Kweeg said the line was defective, and denied that he caused the ship to run over and cut the steel tow line.  Captain Kweeg is a character pregnant with delusions and examples of mental instability that endangered the ship and the men aboard the Caine.  And that is the subject of much concern because Senator John McCain appears to have some of the same signs. 

First, McCain cannot seem to get it right when it comes to the conservative agenda and GOP talking points.  He vacillates on illegal immigration, and he even considered running as John Kerry’s vice president.  I bet conservatives almost passed out over that little absolute no-no.   

McCain voted against Bush’s tax cuts for the rich, a cute little deviation from conservative lockstep that probably made Rush Limbaugh reach for the big bottle of Oxycontin.  Sure, McCain wants to continue the war, but 100 years, egad!  The chap will have his staff looking for an imaginary key to his motor home food locker before long.  Described by classmates at the US Naval Academy as “McNasty,” “Nasty,” and that “mean little f---er,” McCain admitted: “I acted like a jerk.”  Many years after The Naval Academy, John McCain acquired other monikers.  Known as Senator Hothead amongst his colleagues, McCain’s eruptive tendencies is well known still in the halls of Congress.  McCain’s lack of coolness under fire or when McCain is annoyed at someone who disagrees with him is not high on the list of presidential qualities we seek, I would think, from yet another temperamental, angry-brat Republican in the White House. 

It is troubling that McCain rationalizes reality much the same way as did Captain Kweeg of the USS Caine.  First, McCain endures the unthinkable when Bush dirty tricksters demonize him in the 2000 Election as having fathered a black illegitimate daughter.  When Bush just happened to speaking at Bob Jones University in South Carolina (a college that prohibits mixed dating) just before the state primary, the story about McCain hit.  Push pollsters (more like high-grade Rove rat f---ers) called voters around the state and asked how they would vote if they knew that McCain had fathered a black daughter out of wedlock.  In short order a professor at Bob Jones, Richard Hand broadcast an email to South Carolinians that McCain had fathered a child out of wedlock.  The news services picked up the story, and before McCain could decry the lie, Bush won the South Carolina primary and the nomination.  He snatched it from McCain’s grasp before McCain knew what hit him.   

And the point of all this discourse is about what ensued.  The story that McCain never got to tell was that he and his wife had adopted a dark-skinned Bangladeshi girl as their daughter from Mother Theresa’s orphanage.  But too late, the SC voting levers had been pulled.  It’s no surprise that Rove and Bush are capable of such demented atrocities, so what’s the point, one might ask?   

The point is McCain’s milque toast non-response.  Why wasn’t McCain mad as hell and outspoken about it all?  Shoot, McCain, for votes and for the sake of the GOP embraced Bush as the GOP nominee against Kerry, gave pro-Bush speeches, and acted true to the party in lieu of such a smear that cheated the GOP and the nation out of a duly nominated candidate, John McCain, himself.  It seems bizarre that McCain could be so trauma-bonded to go back to the GOP cigar lounge after such a monstrous act, but he did.  Seems like misplaced slinky logic and ripped integrity to me.  Does McCain seem to vacillate when it comes to courage?  Is it me?  Or is it that he knew that, bottom line, he could run as a sloppy seconds president after Bush II?   

It appears that McCain has some trauma-bonding issues that go back to his days at the Hanoi Hilton.  And I do not fault him for it, if true.  I empathize with McCain for having had to endure the torture of long captivity in North Viet Nam.  I just shudder at his occupying the White House and having his fingers on the buttons when he seems unsure and disturbed as to who his enemies and friends are. 

McCain considered Jerry Falwell, minister and president of Liberty University in Virginia, to be an arch enemy and said so.  Falwell had tipped the scales of the Moral Majority in favor of Bush in 2000, and McCain resented it all to high heaven for years.  And then when the 2008 campaign started McCain knew that getting into bed with former enemies like Falwell who did him wrong just like Bush did, was necessary if you wanted the votes.  No matter how low you sank to get those votes (and kissing Falwell’s ring is lower than kissing the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia’s ring) you just closed your eyes and thought of sitting in the Oval Office as top gun, and all the compromised principles and breach of character played second fiddle to the votes.  So McCain spoke at the Liberty University commencement ceremonies, and Falwell smiled his approval and his support for McCain like a rotund possum in persimmon land, and they kissed and made up.  Ugh!  Has McCain no shame?  It’s that flip-flopping from one-time enemies to best friends that troubles me the most.  Who else will McCain whore himself out to?  And for what price?  What new and arbitrary roads will McCain lead us down in the next 100 years he says we are to be in Iraq as an occupation force?  It’s chilling to think about. 

While the White House spins, fast joining the ranks of the poor are millions of Middle Class Americans who walked away from their mortgages, their homes, and their lives.  And McCain thinks Bush is a swell president.  And McCain approves of the GOP congressmen who supported Bush’s wars and Bush’s reckless disregard for the Constitution.   Do you believe it?  Is Bush McCain’s pimp or what?  And is McCain Bush’s bitch?  The city of Cleveland, Ohio has to deal with the problem of 8,000 ransacked, abandoned houses they are turning into sticks and broken mortar with bulldozers.  Homeowners walked away.  And they took the kitchen sink, and water heater and copper from the AC compressor.  The mayor has filed suit for damages, but not against the homeowners who took a walk.  He’s suing the mortgage lenders for wrongfully enticing homeowners to take out unrealistic loans they could not afford. The Mayor thinks the mortgage lenders are culpable and liable and should pay to clean up the mess they created.  I agree.  And the houses are terminal rubble.  McCain seems to think it’s bad stuff and all, but I haven’t really heard him say anything with passion about what to do about the mortgage meltdown.  Does he even know? 

McCain seems totally in a daze over it all.  He generalizes a lot about the economy and the loss of American jobs without saying much of anything.  He admits in public to not being too sharp in economics.  McCain wants us to stay in Iraq indefinitely and really says little about why we should.  I guess he thinks the extra 3 Trillion dollars Bush added to the National Debt by borrowing from the Chinese to finance his Iraq War is splendid economics in action.  He seems totally neutral about it all.  At best he seems confused.  And that troubles key Republicans as well as Democrats and Independents.  He flirts with Democrats which annoys Republicans.  Old Poppy Bush called Reagan’s economic plan, “Voodoo Economics.”  I bet old Poppy Bush thinks the same thing about Junior’s wanton borrowing and spending us into the toilet, but Barbara would probably slap Poppy across the mouth if he let on. 

McCain said, “All I can say is I’ve had a record of reaching across the aisle.  I’ll match my legislative accomplishments with anybody.  You can’t accomplish that unless you have a working relationship with your colleagues.”  Sounds eerily like the words of Captain Kweeg when he tooted his own horn a bit before the officers in the wardroom in the movie.  Kweeg had screwed up and he knew it.  But you could tell that Kweeg just didn’t get it, and he seemed to know that much, but he still wanted stay in denial and to brag on himself while asking indirectly for his officers’ help in making the Caine a fine ship of the line.  The troubled eyes were the dead giveaway.   

John McCain’s eyes are troubled too.  It appears he knows he’s out of his element.  He wings it with platitudes a lot, things that he thinks will sound good but is deaf to the dissonance of stuff like, “We will probably be in Iraq for the next 100 years.”  Or singing the song “Barbara Ann” with his own substituted lyrics of Bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb Iran.  I don’t think even the great communicator; Reagan could have pulled that one off.  But keep your eye on McCain.  If he goes for the steel ball-bearings in his right side coat pocket, we’re in big trouble.

Tarheel Dems

UPDATED:  MAR 5, 2008

                        READY?  

Sen. Clinton bests Obama in three of four states on Tuesday; winning Texas, Ohio, Rhode Island and losing Vermont.  The Democratic Presidential primary will continue to its end.  

North Carolinians are going to experience a Presidential primary that will be waged aggressively by both campaigns.  It is an experience that supports of both candidates in the State may not see again during their lifetime.  

For those critical of North Carolina’s decision to wait to conduct its primary until the end of the election cycle; the wait will put North Carolina as one of the deciding states in the process.  

Are you ready?             

                        GOPOLINE

It is not gasoline at these prices, it is GOPoline!  Gasoline prices are rising rapidly and North Carolina is no exception.  It is largely due to Republican economic policies.  

Perhaps no other commodity carries the potential political consequences as gasoline.  North Carolinians feel and see the effect of it in their daily lives.  This WSOC TV article makes the salient connection between price and impact: 

Currently the average price for a gallon of gas in Charlotte is $3.16, and the average for the state is $3.17 – an all-time high for the state. But some experts say it could go as high as $4 a gallon later this year.  

The costs are putting a strain on wallets and frustrating drivers.  

“That will get me to work today, tomorrow, and get me to lunch tomorrow, after that I'm putting $20 more or $30 more back in!” exclaimed Eric Leak.  

The father of two had just spent $20 on a half a tank of gas Tuesday.  

“It puts you in a situation where you have to make a decision: buy more Pampers for my kids or put more gas in the car so I can get to the grocery store. It's not right,” he said.  

Tom Crosby with AAA Carolinas said not only are consumers feeling the pinch, but some are actually driving less.  . . .

The soaring price of fuel has a ripple effect on the economy, said Peter Schwarz, a professor of economics at the University of North Carolina at Charlotte.  

“The economy has just about stalled, so these continuing higher gas prices are pretty likely to push us into a recession,” he said.  

Schwarz predicts this spring a gallon of gas could go for $3.40, and possibly go even higher around Memorial Day. 

By comparison, the average gas price this time last year was just $2.43.

In the last election cycle, Democratic candidate Larry Kissell made a poignant political statement about the price of gasoline in relationship to hard working North Carolinians.  Gasoline was a $1.22 when Republican Robin Hayes took office; and in the 2006 election cycle the national average was slightly over $3.00 per gallon.  

Kissell took over a gasoline station in this District and sold gasoline to his constituents at $1.22 per gallon, the price when Bush took office, his campaign paying the difference.   

Kissell’s message was simple but highly effective: 

Oil companies "are making the biggest profits of anybody ever, and we give them tax break after tax break,” Kissell said. Everyday people “are telling us they need help." 

 

"Robin Hayes has helped create the high cost of gas in North Carolina, and I'm going to be a part of the solution to lowering gas costs in North Carolina," Kissell said. 

Public reaction was spectacular.  The event that was to last one hour was extended to four hours as hundreds of citizens waited in line for hours.  

The reaction of one motorist at the event confirms the impact of Kissell’s visceral demonstration:

"I think he's finally got an idea of what everybody should have been doing a long time ago, which is care about the common person,” driver Monty Allen said.

The promotion also contrasts Kissell’s positions on energy with Rep. Robin Hayes: 

Hayes voted for last year's final energy bill that would open an Alaska wildlife refuge to oil drilling and funnel more than $12 billion in tax breaks and subsidies to energy companies. Opponents said the bill would do little to reduce energy use. 

Gasoline will be going higher.  NC Democrats should be giving Republicans the “gas.” 

_____________________________________________

UPDATED:  MAR 2, 2008

                        SEN. OBAMA TO NC DEMS 

A group of energized North Carolina Obama supporters met recently with the Senator’s campaign national operatives.  The volunteers quizzed Sen Obama’s staff on ways they could help in the looming campaign in North Carolina.  

 A highly reliable and informed source recounts the reply: 

Get out and register voters!  

In TPJ’s estimation, it is precisely the correct answer!  The following articles today should highlight the point that Sen. Obama’s campaign is making. 

REGISTER A NEW NORTH CAROLINA             

Democrats must “Register A New North Carolina.”  It is the path to victory in North Carolina in 2008.

TPJ offers every Democrat a Power Point Show (graphics and audio) providing the facts and path to victory in North Carolina in 2008. 

Get your copy today – absolutely free of charge and no obligations -- by sending your name and mailing address to TPJ through TPJ’s FEEDBACK, just click the button on the left side of this webpage or email sgheen@nc.rr.com with your name and mailing address.

A DVD data disc will be mailed to your address within twenty-four hours.  

In order to play the DVD, you will need: 

1.        A computer with a DVD drive;  

2.       MS Power Point ’97 or later edition (or download a free MS Power point reader at  

http://www.microsoft.com/downloads/details.aspx?FamilyId=428D5727-43AB-4F24-90B7-A94784AF71A4&displaylang=en; and 

3.       Sound capability. 

Help make NC Blue in November – order your copy today.  

                        MINUS ONE – THE LONELIEST NUMBER 

One is the loneliest number – and it belongs to North Carolina Republicans.  

TPJ’s analysis of current North Carolina voter registration from January ’08 to February 23^rd can be found at the following hyperlink: 

TPJ'S NORTH CAROLINA VOTER REGISTRATION CHART: 2008
(Chart can be downloaded in Excel format or printed) 

TPJ is measuring “net” gains/losses in voter registration.  Voter registration is never static.  New voters register while existing registrations are cancelled as voters, move, die or are removed from the voter rolls because of inactivity in voting.  Therefore, TPJ measures “net” gains/losses; new voter registrations minus those removed from voter rolls for any reason. 

Our observations and conclusions are:  

1.   New voter registrations are certainly up in North Carolina, some 64,000 new voters added since January 1^st.  However, when “net” gains/losses are measured the effect is an overall increase of some 36,000.  It is certainly an impressive number for the first two months of the year, but the increase is less than 1% of all registered voters.  

2.   Unaffiliated voters are the big winners in raw numbers of new registrations and net registrations.  These are the “net” registrations thus far in 2008: 

Dems	Rpubs	Unaff
10987	4403	20751

3.   Even though Democrats performed much better in raw new registrations and “net” registrations relative to Republicans, Democrats still lost percentage share in “net” vote registrations.  Democrats lost -.09% and Republican lost -.14%. Starting January, these were the percentages of voters: 

Dems	Rpubs	Unaff
44.86%	34.27%	20.87%

            On February 23^rd, the percentages were: 

Dems	Rpubs	Unaff
44.77%	34.13%	21.10%

4.   Unaffiliated voters actually led registrations or tied for the lead in 91 of 100 counties (color coded yellow in TPJ’s chart).  Democrats led registrations or tied in 9 counties. 

Democrats were 2^nd in 62 counties; Republicans in 30 counties and Unaffiliated in 8 counties (color coded in green in TPJ’s chart).  

5.   Democrats simply have to do more to catch the “wave” of new voters registering to vote.  Local Democratic Party organizations should be building an infrastructure for voter registration.  All signs point to the fact that Democrats could actually reverse the decline in Democratic voter registration. 

Why the title of this article, “ONE – THE LONELIEST NUMBER.”  It is the number of counties in which Republicans led voter registrations.  Republican led “net” registrations in only ONE county from January through February 23rd – Anson County.  They led registrations on a loss of -1 as Democrats lost -10 and Unaffiliated -6.  

It is a distinction that Republicans richly deserve and every Democrat hopes that they maintain.  

                        REALLY MATTERS? 

 Does voter registration really matter?  At TPJ, we think the answer is a compelling – YES!   

In a recent article, we analyzed voter registration and its correlation to political control of seats in the North Carolina State House.  Today, we analyze voter registration and political control of the North Carolina State Senate.  The overarching conclusion is that where in Districts where Republicans hold 35% or more of all voter registrations, a Republican more likely than not holds that Senate District. 

The chart immediately below demonstrates the correlation between voter registration, partisan performance and political control.  These are the salient facts and conclusions: 

1.   Of  the 24 Districts in which Republicans have 35% or greater voter registration (highlighted in yellow below), Republicans hold 75% of those seats.

2.   Of these 24 Districts, Civitas’ performance analysis demonstrates that ALL have positive Republican performance.

3.   Republicans currently hold no Districts in which they have less than 35% of voter registrations.

4.   Where Republicans hold less than 35% of registrations, Civitas rates only two has having positive Republican performance generally (highlighted in grey below); Districts 37 and 24.  In both, the Republican performance advantage is a low +2 or +3.

5.   In 2006, two Districts returned to their respective folds.  In District 2, a Democrat incumbent retired and Republicans regained this District consistent with voter registration and performance patterns. 

6.   Democrats have built control of the State Senate, currently 31 Democrats and 19 Republicans, by holding 5 Districts that normally perform Republican (highlighted in grey within the “Incumbent” column).  These are the exceptions to the general pattern of voter registration, political performance and political control.  There are exceptional circumstances that explain Democrat control in each.

We discuss each briefly below.

Steve Goss was truly the “dark horse” of the 2006 election cycle.  With virtually no funding from Democrats statewide, Sen. Goss won a Republican leaning District based on two factors.  First, Republicans had a contentious primary in this District and entered the race divided.  Second, Sen. Goss mounted a truly impressive door to door ground campaign.

Julia Boseman won election in 2004 by the narrowest of margins in a very weak Republican performing District, reflective of the fact that this is truly a “swing” District.  Republicans also diminished their chances of holding this seat in 2004 as they made a rather critical mistake of personally attacking Boseman based on her homosexuality.   Boseman enjoyed incumbency in 2006 and Democrats literally spend hundreds of thousands of dollars to ensure that she retained this seat in 2006.

John Snow won in the far west based on his years of public service as a distinguished Judge in the District.  Snow won election with less than 500 votes in 2004.  As an incumbent and a weak Republican challenge in 2006, Sen. Snow held this seat.

David Hoyle can best be described as a political miracle.  Sen. Hoyle continues to win one of the most Republican performing Senate Districts in North Carolina.  He is a long standing incumbent, which explains his continued success.

Joe Sam Queen holds one of the most interesting political Districts in the State Senate.  Sen. Queen was an incumbent Democrat in 2004 when he was defeated.  Queen returned to office in 2006 with a narrow win.  This is truly a “swing” District and Democrats have demonstrated considerable skill in holding it even though it typically performs Republican according to Civitas.

7.   The five Districts discussed above will certainly be in play in 2008.  If Democrats were to lose these five Districts, the current powerful 31 to 19 advantage favoring Democrats shrinks to a mere 26 to 24 distribution in favor of Democrats. 

It is obvious that Democrats need to be registering new voters to improve their chances of retaining majority control of the North Carolina State Senate.  If Democrat share of voter registration continues to decrease, Democrats may awake from one election cycle wondering what happened.

Dist	Incumbent	Party '04	Party '06	2004 D - R Reg	2004 Una.		2005 D - R Reg	Current Una.	D % Reg Change '04 to '06	Civitas Performance Index
39	Robert Pittenger	R	R	27-50	22		27-48	24	0	R+14
48	Tom Apodaca	R	R	33-45	22		30-43	25	-3	R+11
29	Jerry W. Tillman	R	R	35-49	15		32-50	17	-3	R+15
35	Eddie Goodall	R	R	36-45	20		33-45	20	-3	R+16
42	Austin M. Allran	R	R	35-47	18		33-47	19	-2	R+14
31	Peter S. Brunstetter	R	R	36-47	17		33-48	17	-3	R+11