The Political Junkies

UPDATED:  FEB 7, 2008

                        FISA 

The US Senate will start voting on amendments tomorrow to provide safeguards to properly balance Constitutional protections with the Government’s ability to conduct surveillance.  Bush threatens to veto any bill that does not grant telecommunication companies protection from civil actions for past violations of law.   

Sen. Edward Kennedy squares the issue extremely well: 

“This most recent veto threat by the Attorney General and the Director of National Intelligence reveals the shamelessness of the Administration’s approach to FISA reform.  

The President has repeatedly said that Americans lives will be sacrificed if Congress does not make major changes to FISA.  

But he has once again vowed to veto any FISA bill that does not grant retroactive immunity. So if we take him at his word, the President is willing to let Americans die to protect the phone companies.  

That is a position that should outrage every American.  

The President’s insistence on immunity as a precondition for any FISA reform is yet another example of his contempt for honest dialogue and for the rule of law.”

Democrats across America are hoping that their Senators will stand firm against the veto threat.

                        SPLIT

If Democrats believe their Party is divided in selecting a Presidential nominee, Republicans are in a state of war.  James Dobson, a respected leader of evangelical Christians in the United States, is prepared to sit out the 2008 election rather than vote for Sen. McCain: 

“I am convinced Sen. McCain is not a conservative, and in fact, has gone out of his way to stick his thumb in the eyes of those who are … I cannot, and will not, vote for Sen. John McCain, as a matter of conscience,” he said in a statement on Tuesday. 

“I believe this general election will offer the worst choices for president in my lifetime. I certainly can’t vote for Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama based on their virulently anti-family policy positions. If these are the nominees in November, I simply will not cast a ballot for president for the first time in my life,” he said. 

Dobson said he was just expressing his views as a private citizen — but many of his millions of followers in the evangelical community, who listen to his radio show and read his books, will take it as a signal to do the same.

Some 23% of the voters in the 2004 General Election described themselves as evangelical Christians.  They split for Bush by 78% to 21% for Sen. Kerry.  Sen. Kerry actually won the majority of all other Americans who did not identify themselves as evangelical Christians.  Dobson’s threat spells potential disaster for Republicans in November.

Dr. Steven Jonas discusses the Christianization of the Republican Party in his section of TPJ today.  He offers perspectives not to be missed.

HOW FAR 

John Yoo is not a household name.  He is one of the legal minds who is the architect of Republican policy permitting torture of detainees.  

In a recent appearance

John Yoo publicly argued there is no law that could prevent the President from ordering the torture of a child of a suspect in custody – including by crushing that child’s testicles.  

This came out in response to a question in a December 1st debate in Chicago with Notre Dame professor and international human rights scholar Doug Cassel. 

What is particularly chilling and revealing about this is that John Yoo was a key architect post-9/11 Bush Administration legal policy. As a deputy assistant to then-Attorney General John Ashcroft, John Yoo authored a number of legal memos arguing for unlimited presidential powers to order torture of captive suspects, and to declare war anytime, anywhere, and on anyone the President deemed a threat.

So much is at stake in the 2008 General Election.  It is nothing less important than constitutional democracy in the United States.

_____________________________________________

UPDATED:  FEB 3, 2008

                        STAGFLATION  

Republican economic policy is producing economic stagflation; a slowing economy while prices rise.  Stagflation is the worst of both worlds.  The latest economic assessment: 

Certainly, the economy is teetering on the edge of recession. Government statisticians reported on Jan. 30 that gross domestic product, dragged down by the declining home market, grew at an anemic 0.6% in the final three months of 2007. The 2.2% rate for all of 2007 was the worst performance in five years.  . . .  

Yet inflation is also running hot. The GDP report has the prices of goods paid for by consumers during the fourth quarter increasing by 3.8%, up sharply from the 1.8% pace of the previous three months. The cost of living as measured by the more widely followed consumer price index rose by a steep 4.1% last year—its highest rate in 17 years—while in the last quarter of last year the CPI surged by 5.6%. No matter how it's measured, consumer inflation is well above the Fed's target range of 1% to 2%.

Capping the bleak economic news is the fact that the economy lost jobs in January: 

Payrolls fell by 17,000 in January after an 82,000 gain in December that was larger than initially reported, the Labor Department said today in Washington. None of the 80 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News predicted a decline.  

The Federal Reserve has countered with two emergency interest rate cuts totaling 1.25% within eight days to spur economic activity.  Congress is moving towards a spending package to “stimulate” the economy.   

Will it be enough? 

That may not actually be the important question.  At the same time that “free market” Republicans are pushing the government to intervene in the economy, Bush proposes a new Federal budget that would generate a deficit of $400 BILLION Dollars, almost three times the size of his stimulus package.  Michael M. Phillips and John D. McKinnon write in the Washington Post: 

When Mr. Bush took the oath of office in 2001, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office projected $5.6 trillion in federal budget surpluses through 2011. Through most of his tenure, the president managed to have his guns, butter and tax cuts without creating enormous budget deficits, at least as measured by their share of GDP. One reason was a surprise increase in federal tax receipts from corporations over the last couple of years. Now those revenues have flattened out and the economy is teetering on the edge of recession. 

Mr. Bush and Congress, meanwhile, increased federal spending by 25% between 2001 and 2007, adjusted for inflation, according to Brian Riedl of the conservative Heritage Foundation. By Sept. 30, the U.S. will have spent almost $800 billion on the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. A new Medicare prescription-drug benefit for seniors costs almost $80 billion a year. Mr. Bush's signature tax cuts, in 2001 and 2003, sapped tax receipts and sliced the projected budget surplus by about $1.7 trillion through 2011, according to the CBO.

Republican economic policy over the last seven years is generating levels of debt that will effect generations to come.  The small tax rebate Bush has proposed is small potatoes indeed to the legacy of Republican mismanagement of the economy.

                        LIBERTY REPUBLICANS

The Grand Old Party of small government is changing.  Secret unauthorized taping of telephones, abolition of reproductive choice, and now refusal to serve the obese: 

House Bill No. 282, which was introduced this month [in the Mississippi legislature], says: Any food establishment to which this section applies shall not be allowed to serve food to any person who is obese, based on criteria prescribed by the State Department of Health after consultation with the Mississippi Council on Obesity Prevention and Management established under Section 41-101-1 or its successor. The State Department of Health shall prepare written materials that describe and explain the criteria for determining whether a person is obese, and shall provide those materials to all food establishments to which this section applies. A food establishment shall be entitled to rely on the criteria for obesity in those written materials when determining whether or not it is allowed to serve food to any person. 

The proposal would allow health inspectors to yank the permit from any restaurant that "repeatedly" feeds extremely overweight customers. 

The bill, written by GOP Rep. W. T. Mayhall Jr., was referred to the Judiciary and Public Health committees, but The Jackson Free Press doesn't expect it to garner much support in the statehouse. 

About two-third of Mississippians are considered overweight or obese, according to a recent analysis of federal health data.

What manner of Party has the GOP become?

Them Dems

UPDATED:  FEB 7, 2008

                        WAYWARD TPJ 

Several States are still counting ballots; but Super Tuesday continues to offer surprises.  Obama outperformed TPJ’s delegate estimates (see the article below) by about 75 delegates.  Party mathematicians are working their calculators overtime to project the final results, but in the end Obama and Hillary essentially split the pledged delegates at stake. 

TPJ is still working the demographic data from the exit polls.  It appears that the essential demographic patterns that emerged prior to Super Tuesday held; with only a few States deviating.  Those deviations are important and TPJ will offer its findings on Sunday.  

TPJ’s delegate pre-Super Tuesday analysis was generally accurate in primary states.  Our analysis was off primarily in caucus states, which raises an interesting preliminary point.  Hillary won 9 of 15 primary states, including the popular vote total in all of these States by a narrow margin.  Obama won 6 of 7 caucus states (highlighted in grey below) and may actually have won all 7 as New Mexico as the last precincts are being counted and the margin of Hillary’s lead is quite small.  His margin of victory in the caucus States, with the exception of New Mexico was 2 to 1. 

While there is no distinction between primary election and caucus delegates in their votes at the National Convention, Hillary is showing continued strength and an advantage when the public votes.  Obama has clearly demonstrated the ability to turn out supporters at Party caucuses.  Unlike Nevada, Obama’s ground game in the caucus states was far superior to his efforts prior to Super Tuesday/                         

State

Type

Vote Percentage

 
 

 

 

CLINTON

OBAMA

 

Alabama

primary

56%

42%

 

Arizona

primary

51%

42%

 

Arkansas

primary

70%

27%

 

California

primary

52%

42%

 

Connecticut

primary

47%

51%

 

Delaware

primary

43%

53%

 

Georgia

primary

31%

67%

 

Illinois

primary

37%

72%

 

Massachusetts

primary

56%

41%

 

Missouri

primary

48%

49%

 

New Jersey

primary

54%

44%

 

New York

primary

57%

40%

 

Oklahoma

primary

55%

31%

 

Tennessee

primary

54%

41%

 

Utah

primary

39%

57%

 

Alaska

caucus

25%

75%

 

Colorado

caucus

32%

67%

 

Idaho

caucus

17%

79%

 

Kansas

caucus

26%

74%

 

Minnesota

caucus

32%

67%

 

New Mexico

caucus

49%

48%

 

North Dakota

caucus

37%

61%

 

                        CAMELOT

Hillary’s strong 16% victory in Massachusetts in the face of open opposition from Sens. Kennedy and the Kennedy clan and Kerry makes a point.  Cape Cod Today noted: 

Despite endorsements by Senators Kennedy, Kerry and Governor Patrick, Barack Obama lost the Bay State to Hillary Clinton last night. . . .  

The big losers yesterday were Romney and Kennedy, latterday friends in their home state.  The big winners here were the younger Democratic pols who mostly backed Clinton and Beacon Hill which did the same.  One local Cape pundit said, "it likes like the half century reign of Camelot has ended in Massachusetts."

Americans bestowed “Camelot” on President John Kennedy.  Obama is successfully developing his own mantle.

_____________________________________________

UPDATED:  FEB 3, 2008

                        SEN. SCHUMER’S AG 

Sen. Schumer was instrumental in obtaining the US Senate’s consent of Michael B. Mukasey as Attorney General of the United States. 

In recent Senate hearings last week, Attorney General Mukasey refused to state whether waterboarding as an interrogation technique would be torture.  

 When the subject returned to waterboarding, there was especially tough questioning by Senator Charles E. Schumer, Democrat of New York, who had initially championed Mr. Mukasey’s nomination and has sometimes defended his performance when other Democrats have not.  

The senator appeared exasperated by Mr. Mukasey’s refusal to say whether waterboarding was torture and should be outlawed, despite the attorney general’s statement during his confirmation hearings that he found the technique “repugnant.” 

“I find it hard to understand how you personally, when asked for advice, would not be able to say that something that’s repugnant should be outlawed,” Mr. Schumer said. “You said it’s repugnant. I don’t understand how you can now say, Well, I have to ask a whole lot of other people.”

Sen. Schumer rationalized his decision to support Mukasey’s nomination thusly:  

I AM voting today to support Michael B. Mukasey for attorney general for one critical reason: the Department of Justice — once the crown jewel among our government institutions — is a shambles and is in desperate need of a strong leader, committed to depoliticizing the agency’s operations. . . .  

There is virtually universal agreement, even from those who oppose Judge Mukasey, that he would do a good job in turning the department around. My colleagues who oppose his confirmation have gone out of their way to praise his character and qualifications. Senator Sheldon Whitehouse, Democrat of Rhode Island, for one, commended Judge Mukasey as “a brilliant lawyer, a distinguished jurist and by all accounts a good man.” 

Most important, Judge Mukasey has demonstrated his fidelity to the rule of law, saying that if he believed the president were violating the law he would resign. 

Should we reject Judge Mukasey, President Bush has said he would install an acting, caretaker attorney general who could serve for the rest of his term without the advice and consent of the Senate. To accept such an unaccountable attorney general, I believe, would be to surrender the department to the extreme ideology of Vice President Dick Cheney and his chief of staff, David Addington. All the work we did to pressure Attorney General Alberto Gonzales to resign would be undone in a moment. 

I deeply oppose this administration’s opaque policy on the use of torture — its refusal to reveal what forms of interrogation it considers acceptable. In particular, I believe that the cruel and inhumane technique of waterboarding is not only repugnant but also illegal under current laws and conventions. I also support Congress’s efforts to pass additional measures that would explicitly ban this and other forms of torture. I voted for Senator Ted Kennedy’s anti-torture amendment in 2006 and am a co-sponsor of his similar bill in this Congress. 

Judge Mukasey’s refusal to state that waterboarding is illegal was unsatisfactory to me and many other members of the Senate Judiciary Committee. But Congress is now considering — and I hope we will soon pass — a law that would explicitly ban the use of waterboarding and other abusive interrogation techniques. And I am confident that Judge Mukasey would enforce that law.

America now has an Attorney General who continues the “opaque”  policy of waterboarding and the unfulfilled promise of a law to specifically ban torture. 

                        PLAY

Super Tuesday is generating is generating excitement in both Parties.  Polling firms have issued literally hundreds of polls and consistent with the trends thus far in the primary election cycle, the polls are showing divergent results.  For example, these polls from California paint a highly different picture, depending on which poll is most correct:

Pollster

Dates

N/Pop

Clinton

Edwards

Obama

Undecided

Rasmussen

1/29/2008

807 LV

43

9

40

4

SurveyUSA

1/27/2008

888 LV

49

9

38

2

CNN/LATimes/
Politico

1/23-27/08

690 LV

49

14

32

4

USA Today/Gallup

1/23-26/08

779 LV

47

10

35

6

Which polling firm is “most right?”  Your pick is as good as any that TPJ could make. 

TPJ goes out on a limb today and predicts the actual delegate count each candidate will win in each State.  Our analysis attempts to recognize that delegate selection produces results that can be different than the polling results.  First, whether the State uses a primary or Party caucus to allocate delegates is an important factor.   A large segment of delegates are apportioned among the various Congressional Districts within a State and some are allocated based on the State-wide vote. 

With TPJ’s crystal ball in hand and having consulted the writings of Nostradamus, our predictions follow.  (States Obama wins are highlighted in red; States Hillary wins are denoted in blue.)

State

Type

District-level

At-large

PLEO

Total Pledged

DLD/ALD

Delegates

Delegates

Delegates

Delegates

 

 

 

 

 

 

CLINTON

OBAMA

Alabama

primary

34

11

7

52

23

28

Alaska

caucus

8

3

2

13

7

6

American Samoa

primary

 

3

 

3

2

1

Arizona

primary

37

12

7

56

32

24

Arkansas

primary

22

8

5

35

23

12

California

primary

241

81

48

370

202

168

Colorado

caucus

36

12

5

55

27

28

Connecticut

primary

33

11

6

48

26

22

Delaware

primary

10

3

2

15

10

5

Democrats Abroad

primary

 

6

1

7

2

5

Georgia

primary

57