archived: 3 - 9 Oct, 2004         Back                 Next

UPDATED: OCTOBER 1, 2004 UPDATE  

                        Kerry clobbers Bush /
                        Round One in presidential debates goes decisively to Kerry

Bush took a severe beating. He stumbled verbally. He expelled several audible gusts of exasperation. He demanded rebuttals of the chair more than once. He lowered himself to wheedling the American people to support his besieged presidency.

By addressing the American public with direct eye contact into the main camera and imploring voters to support his peculiar presidency, George Bush revealed what every viewer saw plainly enough. John Kerry is vastly more presidential a candidate and infinitely more qualified to be president than Bush. On a personal level, Kerry exuded strength, and Bush exuded weakness.

What makes matters so much worse for Bush was that he selected the topic for the kick off debate. He wanted to stake his claim to the presidency on his command of national security, defense and homeland security. That will be regarded as a monumental blunder on his part and on the part of his political brain, Karl Rove. Bush was visibly irritated by Kerry's implacable critique of his foreign policy. Bush's annoyance was abundantly evident. He sighed loudly and repeatedly. He acted flustered, even flabbergasted. His debate preparation had clearly been inadequate. The rumors about his being psychologically incapable of accepting criticism in any form have been confirmed. It was obvious that Bush prepared this debate by himself and for himself, and it is now clear he did not allow his staff to prepare realistic lines of attack and riposte. In this crucial test of his ability to command the presidency, he failed.

Kerry was quietly confident throughout the debate. This was a supreme test of his ability to perform under pressure for going into this debate, all the pressure was on Kerry. He has been trailing in the polls for the past four weeks. Seven weeks ago, his campaign lost its message. His strategy lay in tatters only four weeks ago when he made a desperate telephone call to Bill Clinton's hospital room shortly after the former president had been stricken with heart disease. Since that decisive teleconference, John Kerry has been fighting back on the only issue that can return the momentum to his campaign - Bush's disastrous war in Iraq.

Clearly, John Kerry will score big in the polls following this debate. The pace and tempo of the debates now works in his favor. Next week, John Edwards and Dick Cheney debate, and one week from today, Bush and Kerry return to debate in the town hall format. In 2000, Bush did well in the town hall format against Albert Gore, and there is little doubt that there will be a massive television audience for next week's debate.

Tonight's debate was a slugfest. Kerry wasted little time before launching a brilliant and bewildering attack against the most controversial president in American history. Bush was on the defensive from the first question, and he never regained the offensive although he attempted to do so time and time again. On only one occasion did Kerry feel compelled to explain his position on Iraq. Bush hammered and tonged the point about Kerry sending "mixed messages", and Kerry constantly and deftly parried every one of Bush's attempts to land a decisive blow.

There is absolutely no doubt that Kerry is now stronger due directly to his debate performance, and Bush is weaker for the same reason - his own debate performance.

With two more debates between these two contenders over the next 14 days, this campaign just entered its final phase. Today, Bush is ahead - largely as a result of a superior strategic game plan and far better media production. Kerry is now closing the strategic gaps, although he still has much work left to do to put his media on equal footing with Bush. That said, Kerry's performance on the campaign trail with his core message is now honing in on Bush's Achilles tendon - his misleading America into war with Iraq. Kerry's more focused campaign messaging and his masterful command of the first presidential debate are bringing him back into contention for the lion's share of momentum in the closing weeks of this campaign.

I expect Kerry to close strongly - just as predicted by all who know his campaign style. He is re-calibrating his strategy and calculating to peak his popularity on the day of the election.

At this time in 2000, Bush had about the same lead over Gore, approximately 5-6%. Gore did not actually close that gap until the final weekend, when he swept into a palpable lead only on the day before the election. In the first debate of 2000, Gore's debate performance was not nearly as confidence inspiring as Kerry's.

Now, there is everything to play for in this election. In the presidential debates, Round One went decisively to Kerry, and the rest of the debates are looking good for the Democrats.

If this were to be a truly honest election (i.e. if Florida were not already sewn up by Bush) there is every reason to believe that there would be regime change in Washington in January, 2005, and that George Walker Bush would, once again, follow his father's footsteps into the dustbin of history as a failed one term president who cost America huge proportions of its dwindling prestige and wrecked the domestic economy while distracting the public with a series of ill-conceived wars.

History may yet repeat itself. (I hope.)

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                        EQUINOX – RELAUNCHING THE TIDES

Three weeks ago, I wrote a column, John Kerry – Do or Die. 

In that column, I described a three stage process for John Kerry to reinvigorate his presidential campaign in order to reverse the tides of momentum that had shifted to George Bush. 

The three stages are:  John Kerry’s personal messaging; his campaign’s media messaging and his performance in the presidential debates. 

Crucially, timing is of the essence, and I recommended a firm re-launch of the Kerry campaign by the autumnal equinox. 

I am happy to report that on the equinox, John Kerry made the single most important speech of this campaign – his address on foreign policy at NYU. [In Harshest Critique Yet, Kerry Attacks Bush Over War in Iraq] 

In that speech, John Kerry took George Bush to task for the Iraq crisis. 

That speech marked the re-launch of this campaign. 

In the days that have followed, Kerry’s media campaign has morphed from a weak reflection of last week’s polling into a more aggressive attack on George Bush’s failures as president. 

Kerry’s personal messaging is improving, and his media campaign is improving – although the latter still has a long way to go – there are at least a few encouraging polls and portents emerging before October and its potential bitter surprises (see below). 

Next week, the final front of the campaign will be opened when Bush and Kerry meet face to face to go, head to head or – mano a mano – as Bush prefers to say in a mortal clash during their three televised debates. 

The presidential debate is a colossal challenge for John Kerry.  Frequently described as aloof, cold, elitist, distant and self-possessed, he must attack Bush without seeming arrogant or dismissive.  Kerry must project effortless superiority, which for him, is a dangerous assignment, but one that he simply cannot avoid. 

Make no mistake; George W. Bush is a very formidable debater.  His folksy performances against Albert Gore devastated his opponent at precisely the wrong time in the 2000 campaign.  Bush will use every ounce of his folksiness to trump Kerry’s effortless superiority. 

Kerry would be well advised to lighten up, to relax, and to go gently forward in his clash with Bush.  He should certainly refrain from any instinctive desire to move in for the kill simply to establish himself as intellectually superior to Bush.  That is a given.   

By far the best role model for Kerry at this point in time is JFK.  In their televised debates in 1960, JFK was a model of gentlemanly superiority, focused but not aggressive, serious but not dire, commanding but not strident. 

JFK unfolded his argument, and Nixon simply collapsed in front the cameras performing like a desperate mouse cornered by a very charming and playful cat.  Nixon’s profuse perspiration during his debate and his shifty-eye movements clouded his aura of credibility, and JFK got the momentum to close and win.   

Kerry cannot expect Bush to self-implode as easily as Nixon, but he can look forward to the moment he has been waiting for so very long.  We have everything left to play for, and the two presidential gladiators are making their ways toward the arena.  Kerry will win; the future of our planet is hanging in the balance. 

                        CARMICHAEL’S CORNUCOPIA OF THE WEEK THAT WAS  

            Tom Harkin to John Kerry - "Take Bush on for misleading the US into war"

            [Related article: Bush's foes want to back Kerry but he's just too vague]  

Senator Tom Harkin's advice to John Kerry is that he must define his position on the war in Iraq more clearly.  Harkin's sage advice reminds me of the 1968 presidential campaign. 

In mid and late September, Hubert Humphrey was in the doldrums trailing Nixon by as much as 17 points in the national polls. 

On the 30th of September, Humphrey went to conservative Salt Lake City to deliver a speech that was broadcast on national television in which he broke away from President Johnson when he called for a halt to the bombing of Vietnam.   

From that date, Humphrey relaunched his campaign, and he immediately surged upward in the polls.  The closing five weeks of Humphrey's campaign were the most stunning comeback in the history of American presidential politics.    

Humphrey was fortunate to have Joe Napolitan as Media Director of his campaign.  Napolitan was orchestrating a brilliant campaign that featured four media producers - not one and only one like the Kerry campaign's disappointing Bob Shrum.  Shelby Storck and Tony Schwartz produced some of the most effective media in American politics for Humphrey, and he swiftly surged back into strong contention in his race against Nixon.  

In the closing weeks of the campaign, enthusiastic crowds thronged Humphrey's rallies.  In Charlotte, we prepared a rally at the Coliseum that was to be remembered in Humphrey's biographies and books about the election as the most exuberant of that campaign.  People flocked to hear Humphrey deliver his vibrant speech that clearly defined him as the peace making candidate with his bold call for a halt to the US bombing of Vietnam.  The Charlotte Coliseum was filled to maximum capacity, and thousands more gathered in the parking lot to hear Humphrey's address through loudspeakers set up at the last minute.  I remember seeing busloads arrive from as far away as Atlanta, and people standing in the twilight surrounding the Coliseum as far as the eye could see.   

When Humphrey marched through the Coliseum, the reception was tumultuous.  The podium was filled with many leading luminaries of the North Carolina Democratic scene:   Terry Sanford, Andy Griffith, Skipper Bowles, Rich Preyer, Bob Scott, Charlie Smith, C. C. Hope, Jr., B. Everett Jordan and Bill Cochrane were joined by the amazing George Bristol, a Texas Democrat who was in charge of the Humphrey campaign in the South.  I was standing in the high security area in the wings with Jim Patterson, Ben Chavis and Pete Ellington. 

On the podium, Humphrey did not disappoint.  Always a strong orator, Humphrey made it perfectly clear that he wanted peace in Vietnam and a halt to the bombing.   The Democratic throng gave him the longest and warmest standing ovation that I have ever seen. 

Tom Harkin is right.  John Kerry needs a defining, Salt Lake City moment in his campaign.  Kerry must seize the initiative by stating in no uncertain terms what it is that he would do differently from Bush in Iraq.   

Many highly distinguished American Generals are criticizing Bush's handling of the war in Iraq.  It is now official; there were no WMDs in Iraq.  Iraq is descending into civil war - a fact that Bush has known for months.  America is losing allies because of its attacks on Iraqi civilians.  America's only real ally, Britain, is about to pull out of the dreadful war.  The head of the United Nations has attacked Bush for the illegal war.  The flow of negative news from Baghdad and Iraq is one thing that is a dead certainty for a long time to come. 

With Bush launching an desperate and merciless military assault against Falluja, and with reports of dozens of dead civilians as well as horrific images of wounded children writhing in pain now flooding the international media - Kerry should call for a cessation to the US bombardment and attacks on the innocents in Falluja and everywhere else in Iraq.   

Kerry has been much more effective on the campaign podiums since the arrivals of Joe Lockhart, Jon Sasso and Mike McCurry, but there is still room for major improvement.  Now is the time for moral courage and leadership from our heavyweight presidential candidate.  Let's see more grace under pressure and more fighting spirit.  If Kerry takes Tom Harkin's advice to adopt a firm stand against Bush's appalling conduct of the war in Iraq - the polls will rapidly begin to shift back in his favor.  

John Kerry has been described as a strong finisher.  Let us see him come from behind his opponent with a concentrated fight back on the only issue with enough potential to return the momentum to Kerry - Bush's war in Iraq.  At the Democratic National Convention, John Kerry said it best, "He misled us into war."   

With several polls pointing out that the majority of Americans do not support Bush's handling of the war, it is his Achilles tendon.   

Kerry should strike while there is still time to reverse the flow of momentum in this campaign. 

            John Kerry Strikes Back

            [Related article: In Harshest Critique Yet, Kerry Attacks Bush Over War in Iraq] 

In the best play yet in his faltering presidential campaign, John Kerry fought back against George Bush yesterday - slashing Bush's face with a bewildering (for Bush) “left hook” delivered in a foreign policy speech at New York University on the eve of Bush's address to the UN today. 

While Karl Rove is acting gleeful about Kerry's new tactic (see final paragraph in NYT story he realizes two things:  the polls indicate that Bush's lead on the Iraq War are tenuous AT BEST, and the situation in Iraq is morphing swiftly from atrocious to horrible. 

John Kerry's speech yesterday in New York was the most cogent and the most relevant of his campaign.  He attacked Bush for misleading us into war, continually mis-stating the case for war, mishandling the operations of the war, miscalculating the costs of the war and making mistake after mistake after mistake during the ongoing course of the deepening war.  Bravo!  This was well said, tightly focused and on a message that still has the punching power to deliver telling blows to Bush's body politic.   

A word of advice:  while Kerry's speech yesterday was a good series of punch lines - let's hear more of them - and let's hit harder still.  The British Ambassador to Rome stated the obvious only yesterday - that Osama bin Laden is backing Bush, because, he is the "greatest recruiting sergeant for Al-Qaida."  (see Guardian comment below)  John Kerry should say it as well. 

Furthermore:  the bombing, the killing and the maiming of Iraqi innocents by US forces is one of the most shameful series of atrocities and war crimes in the annals of history.  The international media is flooded with images of seriously injured children from the assaults on Falluja last weekend.  These reminded me of the startling image of The Napalm Girl - Kim Phuk during Vietnam. 

America has got face the music.  Bush's war in Iraq is a disaster.  John Kerry said it best only yesterday:   

"Security is deteriorating, for us and the Iraqis.  42 Americans died in June -- the month before the handover.  But 54 died in July -- 66 in August and already 54 halfway through September.  And more than 1,100 Americans were wounded in August -- more than in any other month since the invasion.  We are fighting an ever growing insurgency in an ever widening war-zone.  In March, insurgents attacked our forces 700 times.  In August, they attacked 2,700 times -- a 400% increase.  Falluja, Ramadi, Samarra, even parts of Baghdad -- are now 'no go zones' -- breeding grounds for terrorists who are free to plot and launch attacks against our soldiers.  The radical Shiite cleric, Moqtada al-Sadr, who is accused of complicity in the murder of Americans, holds more sway in the suburbs of Baghdad. Violence against Iraqis from bombings to kidnappings to intimidation is on the rise." 

This is good, but, let's dig even deeper still, John.  Tell us that when you are Commander-in-Chief things will change dramatically, because you will simply not allow forces under your command to commit war crimes against the civilian population of Iraq or any other nation.  As President, you will not allow soldiers in US military uniform to torture, humiliate and sexually assault prisoners of war in American custody.   

John, you must tell the people, and you must tell George Bush that you are ashamed of his conduct of his war in Iraq.  US forces under Bush's command are striking at civilian targets in Falluja, and scores of innocent civilians, women, infants, children and the aged, the disabled and the infirm are being killed by bombs, grenades, mortars and rockets that are being paid for by US taxpayers and aimed by US soldiers doing the bidding of George Bush - the War President.   

John Kerry, you are the man of the moment, and if you do not deliver this message to the people of America now in this campaign, the opportunity to stop the atrocities may be lost forever. 

A special message to Joe Lockhart:  While you want your candidate to fight on two fronts (see NYT article) - this is distracting for both him and his public at precisely the time that he needs to focus his attack on Bush's miserable conduct of this catastrophic war.  Joe, the polls have been showing us that health care is a major issue for years, but the Kerry message on health care is not gaining traction fast enough to swing major waves of momentum in our direction between today and the 2nd of November.  Joe, help John Kerry now by keeping him on his most powerful message:  Bush is wrong on Iraq - He misled us into war - He miscalculated the war - he is still misleading us into a broadening, deepening and increasingly dangerous war that is threatening American security more today than before Saddam Hussein left his palace in Baghdad.  Asking John Kerry to fight a battle against George Bush on two fronts is like sending a heavyweight into the ring with one hand tied behind his back.  Don't do it, Joe.  Strike while the iron is still hot enough to bend back in your direction, and history will be glad that you did. 

            The Hollow World Of George Bush

            [Related Article:  The hollow world of George Bush] 

In his comment, Sidney Blumenthal reveals President George Bush as a hollow man commanded by auto-suggestion to replay every mistaken concept through rote memorization until doomsday. 

The American president is living in a world of fantasy, where Iraq is getting better and better, Saddam Hussein never met Donald Rumsfeld and America never provided biological weapons for Saddam's Reagan-era WMD programs. 

Blumenthal quotes T. S. Eliot's The Hollow Men to characterize Bush as a dangerous self-programming automaton. 

I see him as a true believer in the divine counsel of his own pre-fabricated religious ideology. 

Much has been written about the dangers inherent in Islam, while little has been written about the dangers inherent in the American forms of Christian fundamentalism. 

Only yesterday, it was reported that US televangelist, Jimmy Swaggart, has recently begun to advocate the killing of gays, which is a principle he has derived from his fundamentalist interpretation of a passage in the Judaeo-Christian Bible. 

The American media is so deeply biased that there is little interest in informing the public about the dangers lurking inside their own minds implanted by their right-wing churches and reflected throughout their right wing media. 

George Bush is a product of lifelong brain-washing, mental programming and the theology of hate and fear that is driving much of America over the brink of reason. 

Sidney Blumenthal has done a great service by diagnosing Bush's separation from reality. 

I commend his column highly. 

Junkie: As incredible as it seems, Carmichael accurately portrays Swaggart’s pledge to kill any gay who “looked at him in that way.”  Here is the exact quote: 

In the broadcast, Swaggart was discussing his opposition to gay marriage when he said "I've never seen a man in my life I wanted to marry."

"And I'm going to be blunt and plain: If one ever looks at me like that, I'm going to kill him and tell God he died," Swaggart said to laughter and applause from the congregation. – SFGate  

Swaggart has subsequently apologized.

NEXT - STEVEN JONAS

Last Update: 03/23/2006