archived: 23 - 29 May, 2004 Back Next
BUSH
TPJ is not publishing charts this week as only one new poll that TPJ regularly follows was released during the past week. The lack of new polls is the perfect time to step back and analyze the current situation in more detail.
Democracy Corps, a TPJ favorite polling site, provides some interesting perspectives. DC has Kerry leading Bush 49% to 47%. How as Kerry established a lead: [all excerpts are from DC, emphasis added]: -- Democracy Corps
[Kerry leads] largely because of the collapse in confidence in Bush, the deepening mood for change and the emerging framework for the election.
By 55 to 41 percent, voters say the Iraq war was not worth the cost of U.S. dollars and lives. Just two months ago, the country was split, but no longer. . . . [A] large majority of 55 percent say the U.S. is losing control there, with only 41 percent thinking we are making progress.
Bush is very vulnerable to further attacks on the Iraq issue. In this survey, there were four powerful attacks: 1) Halliburton (no bid contracts, $6 billion in profits, inflated prices and overcharging the government for troops’ meals); 2) misled on out-of-control costs (assured us Iraq would finance own reconstruction, but have spent $166 billion dollars, after getting the additional $87 billion, now requesting another $25 billion, and they offer no Iraq budget until after election); 3) war financed with deficit spending paid by our children; 4) no clear mission for the soldiers or plan for post-war rebuilding leaves us with nearly 800 American have died in Iraq, as our soldiers now perform tasks they did not train for, and are sitting ducks. Each of these raises serious doubts for about 60 percent of the electorate, including very serious for about 40 percent.
The public’s confidence in Bush’s handling of the war on terrorism has fallen steadily this year, collapsing in the last month. In January, the public wanted to continue Bush’s direction on the war on terrorism by 33 points, but that dropped to 26 points in February, to 22 points in April and to 14 points today (56 to 42 percent). The result is that Bush cannot win the central debate in the framework he would hope would shape the election.
It is time to take the voters’ frustration with the economy seriously, despite continuing reports on job creation, the strong economy and the good news that lies ahead. This month’s results are the most dramatic yet, as Bush drops on economic measures rival the changes on Iraq.
In assessing why Bush is sinking, not rising with the economy, one has to keep in mind people’s assessment of their own personal financial situation (which has not been rising, even as it forms a part of the ABC News/Money consumer confidence measure); the unemployment rate which leaves people with a sense of scarce jobs and low bargaining power; the strikingly unequal income gains in this recovery; the focus on outsourcing and reduced benefits for current jobs; and most important, the dramatic rise in costs for health care and gasoline.
Don’t underestimate the power of the deficits. Remarkably, this is the area where voters’ most want to see change from the Bush era: 62 percent, twice the number who want to continue with Bush. The sense of the budget out of control may be an important factor contributing to the rising desire for change. As a result, the federal deficits can be a central element in the critique of the Bush presidency and in the agenda of a Kerry candidacy.
The election has also moved to a new phase because of deepening emotions in two areas that are starting to structure the race. First, people are frustrated that America is not tackling its own problems, to make America strong at home as well as abroad. We have lived through almost three years under the Bush “wartime” presidency, which he wants to continue. But the public wants to be able to hope for more than that. Second, people are frustrated that the middle class is having such a tough time, while corporate America and CEOs live so high in Bush’s Washington.
Bush’s campaign is obviously sputtering because its policies have not produced the “grand promises” that the neoconservatives sold Americans. Cheney’s promise that Iraqis would welcome America as a liberator has actually become an endless nightmare. The America that was the victim of terrorists in 9-11 Bush has made the America predators of torture in Iraq. Bush touts a recovering economy that is not producing sufficient high wage jobs for middle class Americans.
All campaigns have cycles of ebb and flow. The 2004 Presidential election will not be any different. The economy is starting to produce jobs again and Bush is already touting the “success” of his reckless tax cut policies. If the transfer of limited authority to the new Iraqi government brings some degree of stabilization to that country, it could have positive impact on Bush’s falling numbers.
Perhaps more than any other election in recent years, potential “surprises” may develop to alter the polling trends. Osama’s capture would assuredly provide Bush with a “bounce,” as Saddam’s capture did. High gasoline prices may fall back to more normal levels, which would send economic growth projections dramatically upward. Was American torture of Iraqis limited to the line levels, or will Bush’s minions be implicated? Which candidate will get the breaks from any surprises?
_______________
Gallup produces a fascinating chart demonstrating where Bush is garnering his support
When Republicans were in the minority, the claimed that Party did not make a difference in elections, it was the “man.” The graph above turns that argument into a myth.
VIEWING THE ECONOMY
As we head into Summer, Gallup shows that Americans are still rather pessimistic about the economy. The significant findings from their poll conducted May 2 to 4: -- San Mateo County Times
U.S. economy as excellent or good fell this month to 29 percent, the lowest level of the year and a drop from 43 percent in January. . . . 43 percent of Americans said the economy was fair and 27 percent said it was poor. . . .
The percentage of those rating the U.S. economy as excellent or good has been below 50 percent since the first month of the Bush administration. . . .
54 percent of respondents said Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry, 60, a four-term Massachusetts senator, would do a better job of handling the economy, compared with 40 percent for Bush, 57.
The numbers certainly do not bode well for Bush’s campaign.
LATINO VOTE
A new poll shows Latino voters in the United States divided in their support for George Bush and John Kerry, six months before the U.S. presidential election. Sergio Bendixen & Associates, a Miami-based polling firm with close ties to the Democratic Party surveyed 1,800 registered Latino voters, 600 in Florida, and 400 each in the southwestern states of Arizona, New Mexico and Nevada. The overall results give Senator Kerry an edge with Latino voters in all three southwestern states. However President Bush leads in Florida which he won by 537 votes in the 2000 election. In Florida, President Bush leads Mr. Kerry 55 percent to 35 percent, similar to the results in 2000, when he received 61 percent of Florida's Hispanic vote to Vice-President Al Gore's 39 percent. [w]ithin the Cuban-American vote, strong differences are emerging this year.
"The Cubans born in Cuba are supporting Mr. Bush with 80 percent of the vote, and 12 percent for John Kerry," he said. "The U.S. born are supporting Mr. Kerry with 54 percent, and only 33 percent for the president." That points to a generational divide within the Cuban-American community . . . .” -- Voice of America
Last Update: 03/23/2006
