archived: 5 - 11 Dec, 2004         Back                 Next

                        NOT A NATIONAL PARTY 

Over the next several months, TPJ will analyze the Democratic Party’s defeat in November.  There are two essential questions:  what happened and why?  Answers to both questions are critical to understand where the Democratic Party actually stands and the challenges that must be confronted.

The 2004 Presidential election confirms the harsh reality that the Democratic Party is no longer truly a national Party from several critical perspectives. Understanding why that thesis is true may suggest what must be done to compete successfully as a national Party. 

TPJ starts the inquiry by analyzing what happened from a geographical perspective.  

            The Big Picture   

Democrats had long assumed that the millions of Americans who were either not registered to vote or were registered but who did not vote regularly would largely vote Democrat.  Democrats and allied labor and 527 organizations, ACT being the most prominent, registered millions of new voters and voted a substantial number of new voters.  

Yet, the Democratic Party assumptions that increasing voter registration and turn out would lead to a victory was wrong as demonstrated by the national vote totals. 

More Americans than ever did turn out to vote; but Republicans increased their 2004 turn out over 2000 by 10,149,113 votes while Democrats increased their total from 2000 by only 6,288,667. 

The Republican effort increased their “spread” over Democrats in the popular vote from 2000 when Gore won the popular vote by 539,947 to winning the popular vote in 2004 by 3,320,449. Bush’s “swing” from 2000 to 2004 was 3,860,446 votes.

Click on this link to see the vote totals for all states for 2000 and 2004 – States By Alpha.  NOTE:  Chart will open up in a separate window.

Bush increased his 2004 margins of support relative to the Democrats in 38 states.  Sen. Kerry increased the Democratic margin of support from 2000 compared to the Republicans in only 12 states and the District of Columbia as listed below:

            Alaska                           6,004
            Colorado                       38,010
            DC                               19,885
            Maine                           33,661
            Minnesota                     40,554
            Montana                        10,381
            Nevada                                23
            New Hampshire             16,453
            Ohio                            139,943 (subject to recount)
            Oregon                          61,028
            Vermont                        34,018
            Washington                   66,684
            Wisconsin                       6,417

While the margin of Democratic Party gains was much smaller that Republican gains, in an election of small numbers small margins can have critical impact.  For example, Kerry’s rise of just 16,453 votes in New Hampshire resulted in a Democratic Party victory in that State, the only Bush 2000 state that the Democratic Party won in 2004.  Bush won Iowa and New Mexico by very small numbers.

            The South Rises Again    

Most interestingly, Bush increased the Republican 2000/2004 “spread” by 2,130,292 votes the 11 states of the Confederacy and the two Border States; Missouri and Kentucky.  These 13 states accounted for 55% of Bush’s 2000/2004 total “spread” of 3,860,446.

Click on this link to see the vote totals in the Confederate and Border States – Confederate and Border States.  NOTE:  Chart will open up in a separate window.

The Confederate States were not equal in their increase in Republican support.  Only six of these 13 states accounted for 1,413, 089 of the 2,130,292 votes.  They are:

As in so many states, Kerry’s failure to mount a serious campaign in these states demonstrates the effect of capitulation to the Republicans.

            Republicans Assail Democratic “Turf”

While the Democratic Party simply conceded a large number of states, Republicans challenged and gained ground in Democratic Party turf.  These three states accounted for some 755,000 votes in Bush’s increase in 2000/2004 “spread”: