archived: 5 - 11 Dec, 2004         Back                 Next

Updated: December 7, 2004 

                        AN ELECTION OF IDEAS – DEMOCRATS LOST 

TPJ is framing two questions.  First, “what happened” in the NC Presidential election, which TPJ covered in this past Sunday’s post below.  Second, what forces drove the Kerry/Edwards defeat in North Carolina.  Today’s TPJ update seeks to answer the “why” of Kerry’s thorough defeat in NC even though Edwards was on the national ticket.  TPJ’s ultimate conclusion is that 2004 presented clear choices for NC voters; and Democrats lost. 

Follow this link for the NC Presidential results, both raw numbers and percentages, county by county. – NC Presidential County  Two facts bear repeating: 

1. Kerry won only 19 NC counties compared to Gore’s 25 counties in 2000 despite the fact that Kerry increased his turnout in excess of Bush in 25 counties.  The correlation is that Bush’s voter turnout was even greater in 75 counties.
2. Kerry garnered less than 30% of the vote in 10 NC counties while Bush had NO counties in the 20% range.

            Geographic Distribution 

The breadth of Bush’s victory in North Carolina is demonstrated geographically.  Kerry won only one major region of the State by a lesser “spread” than any Bush margin in other regions. 

            Party  

Who voted?  Voters identifying themselves as Republicans (40%) outnumbered those identifying themselves as Democrats (39%).  Republicans out voting Democrats, even by 1%, may be a first in NC history and TPJ is still checking the record. 

These voters identified themselves as: 

If the exit poll is to be believed, Bush gained 3% among liberals and lost 4% among conservatives.  One would have suspected these trends to be reversed. 

            Race and Gender 

It was an election driven by women, 58% percent of all voters being female compared to some 42% males.  This fact continues an increasing trend in North Carolina for women to dominate the voting poll. 

The chart above clearly highlights that the vote largely broke on racial lines, white men and women predominately supporting Bush, non-whites, both men and women, supporting Kerry.  Democrats lose the election with this racial mix as some 72% of all voters are white. 

Looking more specifically at race, Bush increased his support among both White and African-American voters by respectable equal margins of 5%.  The logical conclusion is that Kerry’s 1% improvement over Gore’s performance came through the overall increase in African-American voters and a strong showing among the 3% of other races comprising the voting pool.   

Bush’s increase in Black support has significant implications for the NC Democratic Party.  It is an issue that must be addressed by the Party. 

            An Election Of Ideas – And Democrats Lost 

Some 96% of the voters identified the issues above as the most important issues in the election.  “Moral Values” scored 1^st, but pales comparison to Taxes, Education, Iraq, Terrorism and Economy/Jobs combined, some 72%.   

The vote based on issues closely parallels the final out come Kerry’s vote total: 

Terrorism and Moral Values were the dominant issues, 44% of the total, compared to Iraq and the Economy, 38% of the total.  In addition, Republicans predominated on their two major issues by wider margins than Democrats could gain for their issues.  

Perhaps stated another way, more voters who approved of Bush’s performance in office turned out to vote that those who disapproved.  The correlation between job approval and actual vote is quite obvious. 

            Iraq & Terrorism 

North Carolina voters supported the decision to go to war in Iraq: