LOUISIANA 6^TH   

Democrats have retaken another Republican Congressional District.  Democrat Don Cazayoux has apparently won the 6^th Congressional District, The District has not been held by a Democrat since the 1970’s and Bush won 59% of the vote in this Republican performing District in 2004.  

The nearly final results with 99% of precincts reporting: 

This election is also interesting from the perspective that Republicans directly attacked Cazayoux by linking him to Sen. Obama and Speaker Pelosi;

WARNING LABEL

The Republican loss is serious and another canary in the coal mine that 2008 could be a Democratic tsunami.  Republican Party officials in Washington must now be truly alarmed.  

GUAM 

While not receiving much attention within the continental US, Guam held its Democratic Primary Saturday.  The results:  Obama wins by 7 votes out of 4,500 ballots cast. 

Neither candidate campaigned on the island in person.

Results of the all-night count completed Sunday morning Guam time show delegates pledged to Obama with 2,264 votes to 2,257 for Clinton's slate.

The territory sends four pledged delegates and five super delegates to the National Convention in August in Denver, although U.S. citizens on the island have no vote in the November election. 

Hillary and Obama will split the 4 pledged delegates.  

Obama’s campaign had predicted a double digit victory of about 11%.  That obviously did not occur. 

Both campaigns will be trying to sort through the reasons this race closed to a virtual tie.

                        TURNING TIDE? 

Alan I. Abramowitz publishes a fascinating study in The Crystal Ball (a TPJ favorite) detailing the long term demographic opportunities for Democrats.  This article is a must read for all Democrats.  

Abramowitz finds: 

                        APRIL SHOWERS 

April polling closed with Bush at the lowest level of public approval and high rate of disapproval recorded during his administration.  Of 11 polls released, Bush’s approval rating was above 30% in only 2 polls. 

After a year of Bush’s approval rating holding steady between 32% and 34%, Bush’s approval rating has resumed its downward trend over the last 38 months.  The political implications are clear.  Bush is no longer holding the support of his Republican base.  NBC/Wall Street Journal notes: 

One poll, CNN/Opinion Research finds Bush’s disapproval rating at an historic high of 71%. It should be noted that no other polling firm in April finds disapproval at 70% or above.   

Bush is now achieving historic sustained lows.  Given the state of the economy and the rising turmoil in Iraq, one would expect that May polling may bring even lower approval ratings.