CONUNDRUM  

Democrats face a conundrum; one that threatens the 2008 election. The gridlock between Sens. Obama and Clinton seriously threatens the viability of either candidate winning in November. 

A Franklin & Marshall (F&M) poll this week exposes the potentially fatal split among Democrats. F&M asked this question: 

If [FILL preferred candidate] does not win the Democratic nomination, who do you think you will vote for in the November election? Will you vote for [fill other candidate], John McCain, some other candidate, or will you probably not vote in the November election? 

Hillary Clinton supporters (n = 228) 

53% Barack Obama
19% John McCain
5% Other
13% Won’t vote
10% Don’t know 

Barack Obama supporters (n = 126) 

60% Hillary Clinton
20% John McCain
3% Other
3% Won’t vote
14% Don’t know  

Democrats cannot likely win the Presidency without carrying Pennsylvania.  Given the current responses of both candidates’ supporters, the intensity of the split among supports of both candidates makes it unlikely that the ultimate nominee can carry Pennsylvania.                                       

In the meantime, Gallup Tracking has Sen. McCain edging into a national lead against both Sens Obama and Clinton as the divisions within the Democratic Party grow deeper: 

Democrats rationalize that once the Party’s nominee is selected, the divisions within the Party will heal and Republican performance in office over the last eight years will lead to victory in November.  The rationalization is an illusion. 

Larry Sabato, the Crystal Ball (a TPJ favorite), dispels the illusions by analyzing the arguments of Sens Clinton and Obama.   Supporters of Sen. Obama contend that his candidacy will put more swing states and even some Republican states into play.  Sabato believes such assertions are simply unfounded:

Sabato dispels the argument of Sen. Clinton’s supporters that only she can win the big states that are critical to the Democratic Party’s success:

For Democrats who believe that the overwhelming turnout in Democratic primaries is an indication that the Party wins in November, Sabato observes:

With some 37% of Clinton supports unwilling to support Sen. Obama and some 26% of Sen. Obama’s supporters unwilling to support Sen. Clinton, add to the fatal formula the failure of negotiations to resolve the seating of Florida and Michigan Democratic delegates.  Sen. Kerry won Michigan by only 165,437 of over 4.8 million votes cast.  Failure to seat the delegates likely ensures that Florida remains uncompetitive for Democrats and provides Republican a powerful wedge to drive into the Michigan contest.

                        LOW NOTE

Bush’s approval ratings appear to be hitting another low note.  Two new polls have been released since our last report; Fox/Opinion Dynamics and CBS.  Both support the proposition that Bush’s approval rating is falling again. 

Bush’s average approval rating is 30.75%, paralleling his all time low in TPJ’s analysis in July 2007 at 30.42% (red highlighted in the chart below).   Conversely, Bush’s average disapproval rating to date in March is the highest TPJ has recorded, 63.88% (yellow highlighted in the chart below).

Additionally, CBS is the first pollster in March to find Bush’s approval rating below 30% (highlighted in green below).   This is not the first CBS poll to find Bush below 30% and CBS polls tend to track Bush’s approval rating rather consistently below Bush’s average.  The CBS low was 27% in January, 2008. 

The CBS poll provides a clue as to Bush’s deteriorating poll numbers – 26% of Republicans disapprove Bush’s performance as President.  Compare that to the 5% of Democrats who approve of Bush’s performance.  Simply stated, Bush’s Republican base is peeling away.

At TPJ, we typically express confidence in trends based upon ten polls.  Eight polls are now pointing to Bush’s further decline; we await the release of the next two polls.

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