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Next UPDATED: MAR 26, 2008 BETTER & BETTER It just keeps getting better for NC Democrats in the drive for voter registrations in the run up to the General Election. In the past week: 1. Democrats had a net gain of 5,841 new registrations, up over the 5,225 net registrations last week. 2. Republican net registrations fell below 1,000 at 933. 3. Unaffiliated registrations are up slightly, 3,446 compared to 3,323 last week. On a percentage basis for the week, Democrats garnered 57.15% of new registrations, Republicans had 9.13% and Unaffiliated registrations were 33.72% of the 10,220 net registrations. Momentum remains with the Democrats, who for the third week in a row have registered more net registrations that Republicans and Unaffiliated registrations combined.
The big news is that Republican voter registrations dropped below 34% during the past week. IF the current trends hold through this election cycle, Republicans could drop below 33% and Democrats could approach 46%. Democrats can perform even better. The Republican “brand” is obviously in the tank; and now is the time for Democrats to take advantage. Start a voter registration drive in your community today! REPUBLICAN PAIN The Raleigh News and Observer publishes an article that details the pain North Carolinians are feeling as a result of higher gasoline prices: The skyrocketing price of gasoline is now the joker in the family budgeting deck. Before the latest escalation to record levels, Rebekah O'Connell, a credit counselor with Triangle Family Services, said her clients had an easier time estimating their monthly fuel costs. Now, "people are just taking wild guesses," O'Connell said. With projections saying gas prices in the Triangle will hit $3.50 a gallon around May, drivers are wrestling with similar issues -- how to cut fuel consumption while making room for this ballooning part of our budget. . . . In an Elon University poll earlier this month, about 31 percent of North Carolinians surveyed said the price of gas is the No. 1 transportation issue facing the state today. The latest increases in gasoline prices are related to the economy's slowdown, according to AAA Carolinas. Instead of being fueled by demand for gasoline, the recent price jumps are driven by unprecedented levels of investment in crude oil markets as a hedge against the falling dollar and as a safe haven from sliding prices in real estate, said David E. Parsons, AAA Carolinas president. And as oil refineries retool to switch to cleaner-burning summer-blend gasoline and driving increases in the approaching warmer months, Parsons expects prices to continue to spiral up. Republican policy has consisted of printing more money; leading to the devaluation of the US Dollar. As a result, we are paying more for almost everything. Thank Republicans – Vote Democrat in November. “GO FISH” Republicans continue their attack on health care. TPJ readers will recall that Bush vetoed expansion of Medicaid for children. Now, Bush is pushing administrative regulations that will actually cut the number of people eligible for Medicaid benefits. The story: As the last months of the Bush administration dwindle away, the White House might yet face another showdown with the Democratic Congress, this one over changes in Medicaid rules that could affect millions of low-income children and adults. In the past year, the administration has tried to change the rules in a way that would reduce Medicaid spending by $15 billion over the next five years. The federal-state program pays for health care for the nation's poorest citizens. The rule changes have brought objections from health-care leaders across the country. But the Bush administration say the changes represent tighter controls on Medicaid's rising costs. Some rule changes, which would be enacted around Memorial Day, would reduce payments to North Carolina by an estimated $320 million next year alone. Hospital leaders and local government officials across the country say that if Congress doesn't block the regulations, patients will lose, particularly the uninsured, who may be turned away. The state hospital association says workers will be hurt, too. It estimates 3,000 to 6,000 hospital jobs could be lost, up to a thousand of those in rural areas. Hospital leaders have enlisted among their champions Sen. Elizabeth Dole, a Republican running for re-election. Though one of Bush's closest allies in the Senate, Dole is challenging the White House over its plans for Medicaid. "This was a hastily made change," she said. [A]round the country, hospital administrators are meeting in boardrooms, calling on lawmakers and worrying about how to handle expected cuts from the latest rules. In Congress, members are holding hearings about the changes' impacts. Dole has been lobbying peers on the Senate floor. As the economy declines and people lose their jobs, Bush is simply telling them to “go fish” for health care. _____________________________________________ UPDATED: MAR 23, 2008FROM RED TO BLUE Both Sens. Clinton and Obama have initiated their primary campaigns in North Carolina – Sen. Obama appearing in Fayetteville and former Pres. Clinton opening in Cary. Exciting times in North Carolina as both campaigns are promising to actively engage North Carolina in the General Election. Today, we devote two articles to the proposition of Democrats being sufficiently competitive in North Carolina that either potential Democratic Party candidate will actually commit significant resources to an active campaign in North Carolina. Pew Research Center (Pew) has just released a comprehensive study of voter identification in the United States that includes important clues for the political direction of North Carolina in 2008. It is an important study that every Democrat should read. These are the critical points: 1. Pew classifies North Carolina as a red state, Bush having won NC by more than 5% in 2004. 2. Bush carried North Carolina . . . by eight points or more in 2004, even though the balance of party identification in [North Carolina] favored the Democrats by four points in the case of North Carolina. 3. Of the large states Bush won by more than five points in 2004, North Carolina has seen the greatest drop in GOP identification -- from 35% in 2004 to just 26% today. Comparing large states that Bush won in 2004, North Carolina appears to have the most positive shift to Democratic identification as Pew’s chart demonstrates:
4. Unfortunately, Pew did not provide data for North Carolina Unaffiliated voters specifically. Bush won Unaffiliated voters 56% to 44% in 2004. Nationally however, Pew observes: The Democratic Party has also built a substantial edge among independent voters. Of the 37% who claim no party identification, 15% lean Democratic, 10% lean Republican, and 12% have no leaning either way. By comparison, in 2004 about equal numbers of independents leaned toward both parties. When "leaners" are combined with partisans, however, the Democratic Party now holds a 14-point advantage among voters nationwide (51% Dem/lean-Dem to 37% Rep/lean-Rep), up from a three-point advantage four years ago. The “rub” for North Carolina Democrats is that Democratic Party identification has not increased significantly. While Republican identification is down in North Carolina, Democrats have not gained appreciably. Pew, based on national data, notes: Despite these trends, the proportion of voters who identify with the Democratic Party outright has not increased in recent years. Currently, 36% say they think of themselves as a Democrat, virtually unchanged from 2004 (35%) and 2000 (35%). Instead, as the proportion of self-identified Republicans has decreased, the percentage of independents has grown substantially, from 32% in 2004 to 37% today. In our estimation, the lack of increase in Democratic voter identification is largely attributable to the failure of Democrats to “sell the Democratic brand.” Ask yourself, when is the last time you can remember seeing or hearing any advertisement of why potential votes should register as Democrats? When is the last time you have heard a Democratic candidate speaking to the issue of why an individual should become a Democrat. The simple proposition is that the Republican “brand” has been severely damaged by seven years of one of the most unpopular administrations in history. That unpopularity however does not equate to individuals flocking to the Democratic Party without sound reason. Democrats tend to build coalitions around candidates; and the success for failures of the Party is attached to those candidates. Selling the Party “brand” is almost non-existent. There are recent trends developing in North Carolina, trends that suggest Pew’s analysis based on 2007 and 2008 data may underestimate Democratic Party performance. These trends are discussed in the article below. GET IT ON! TPJ’s weekly review of North Carolina voter registration finds Democrats continuing to perform well. Our analysis begins with our conclusions from last week: Democratic registrations exceeded Republican and Unaffiliated registrations combined. This is a highly promising achievement.
Compare the conclusions from last week with the results from this week. The weekly results are: 1. Democrats achieved a net gain in registrations of 5,225 this week (highlighted in the chart below), down a bit from 5,428 the previous week.
2. Republicans had a net voter registration gain of only 1,271, down from 1,362 the previous week.
3. Unaffiliated registrations increased by 3,323, down marginally from 3,339 the previous week. In 2008, percentage of net registrations breaks down as follows: Democrats (26,586):
40.69% Note that Democratic share in 2008 is slightly higher than Pew’s findings in the article above but still running less that the current 44% share of Democratic registrations. Over the past several weeks, Democratic registrations have exceeded Republican and Unaffiliated registrations combined. For example, last week, the percentage of net registrations was much higher for Democrats Democrats (5,225):
53.21% It is an emerging trend that Democrats want to nurture. Democrats are adding sufficient numbers of new voters to increase their overall share, 1/100th of a percent this week, now at 44.81% (highlighted below). If Democrats hold this pace, the Democrats’ percentage can return to 2007 ending levels in the near future. Republicans are currently performing at a much worse rate than Pew’s analysis. If Republicans continue to garner only 12% of new voters, their share of voter registration will fall below 34% statewide by as early as next week and could fall below 33% by the General Election. If the two trends above continue, Unaffiliated share will continue to grow, but at the expense of Republicans, not Democrats. That would be a significant reversal of the trends in modern history in North Carolina.
Will either Sen. Clinton or Sen. Obama, as the Party’s nominee, really make a campaign in North Carolina? Possible, but not probable is the best answer. As good as the 2008 numbers are for Democrats compared with recent history, the nominal rate of registrations is not likely to have a significant impact on the Presidential race in North Carolina. First, current polling from Public Policy Polling suggests that in a Sen. Clinton/Sen. McCain race, Sen. Clinton holds 68% of the Democrat Party base, but Sen. McCain garners 50% of Unaffiliated voters to 33% for Sen. Clinton. Second, in a Sen. Obama/Sen. McCain race, 20% of Democrats appear ready to vote for Sen. McCain, leaving Sen. Obama with 69% of Democrats while Sen. Obama does marginally better than Sen. Clinton among Unaffiliated voters, 48% McCain and 34% Obama. If these numbers hold true in coming months, North Carolina will not be in the mix of competitive states. North Carolina can be competitive with a lot of work statewide. In order for Democrats to be competitive, we need accomplish three essential tasks; a) register a net of some 200,000 new Democrats statewide (twice the current rate), b) “wake up” some 200,000 “sleeping Democrats” out of over 600,000 Democrats who ARE registered but have not voted since 2000 and c) convert about 100,000 Unaffiliated voters to Democrats in November. If Democrats in every county in North Carolina fashion the infrastructure to accomplish these tasks, North Carolina could be highly competitive in 2008. Looking back at Pew’s analysis in the article above, North Carolina is in an excellent position to make the transition from Red to Blue. The question is whether it will be 2008 or another four years before that occurs. FACTOIDS North Carolina is growing and eight North Carolina counties have made the US Census Bureau’s top 100 counties released last week.
Union County: 7th Democrats should generally be contacting those people moving into North Carolina, particularly in the counties listed above, identifying the Democrats and getting them registered to vote and engaged in the voting process. Most states have voter registrations available online, and the history, if any, of those moving into an area can be checked for their prior registration. Democrats could literally engage thousands of new voters. Some Democrats believe that new North Carolina residents tend to be Republicans moving into the State. It is largely a myth. In the 2000 Presidential election, exit pollsters tested the candidate preferences of those moving into North Carolina within the previous decade. VP Gore won these voters by +12%. Have you moved to North Carolina since 1990?
% of total category % of category If carefully cultivated, Democrats could add thousands of new voters to the Democratic Party base from our newest citizens from those moving into the State.
Last Update: 03/29/2008 |
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