UPDATED: MAR 19, 2008
LINES
The players in the National Democratic Party are now drawing lines in the sand – lines that portend the future of millions of Americans for at least the next five years. For the moment, Democrats have been unable to resolve the fate of Florida and Michigan in the Democratic Party primary process – Florida Democrats indicating they will not hold another primary and the latest proposal for a primary in Michigan collapsing.
If these decisions remain unchanged, the Democratic National Convention delegates will either seat the delegations that were elected outside of Party Rules or not.
In the article FIRING SQUAD? appearing below, TPJ hypothesized:
Democrats; both supporters of Obama and Clinton, are forming a firing squad by forming a circle. When all the bullets have been fired Sen. McCain may be left standing as the next President. Democrats seem convinced that the Party’s nominee is destined to win the presidency. The inevitability is an illusion, but it is an intoxicating apparition.
Public Policy Polling has released polling results from Florida supporting the hypothesis of Party Armageddon (emphasis added).
Hillary Clinton is only getting 51% of the black vote against McCain, a clear indication that Obama supporters unhappy with her are not sure at this point that they will even vote for her if she is the Democratic nominee. 36% of African American respondents said they were undecided.
A similar problem exists for Obama among self identified Democratic voters. He leads only 60-25 with that group over McCain. It's going to be hard for a candidate to win most any state where he only pulls 60% of the vote from his own party.
If Democratic leaders believe these acrid divisions can be reconciled by the selection of a nominee, they should simply envision that forming a firing squad in a circle leaves only the dead. Public Policy Polling finds only McCain standing in Florida:
John McCain
47
Hillary Clinton 43
John McCain 50
Barack Obama 39
AND?
Just one new poll this week tracking Bush’s approval rating as pollsters have turned their attention to the Democratic Party presidential primary. USA Today/Gallup finds Bush’s approval rating at 32% and his disapproval rating at 64%. USA Today/Gallup’s approval rating is the same as in February, but those who disapprove are up +2%.
Based on the March averages to date, Bush’s approval rating remains below 32% and a full -2% from Bush’s December close and January opening of 2008. Bush’s disapproval rating has hit the highest monthly average, 64% that TPJ has recorded. The spread between approval and disapproval is also at its highest level.
Are we witnessing the deterioration of Bush’s Republican base? It is still too early to say with certainty. At least four more polls are needed, but the signs are present to suggest that some Republicans are peeling away from the President.
And, TPJ will file its next update on Sunday. Stay tuned!
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Approve |
Trail Mo |
Disapprove |
No Opinion |
Spread |
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2008 |
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USA Today/Gallup |
3/14-16/08 |
32 |
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64 |
4 |
-32 |
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NBC/Wall Street Journal |
3/7-10/08 |
32 |
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63 |
5 |
-31 |
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Newsweek |
3/5-6/08 |
30 |
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61 |
9 |
-31 |
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AP-Ipsos |
3/3-5/08 |
30 |
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66 |
4 |
-36 |
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ABC/Washington Post |
2/28 - 3/2/08 |
32 |
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66 |
2 |
-34 |
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March Avg |
31.20 |
-1.36 |
64.00 |
4.80 |
-32.80 |
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February Avg |
32.56 |
0.22 |
62.56 |
4.67 |
-30.00 |
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January Avg |
32.33 |
-1.12 |
63.13 |
4.47 |
-30.80 |
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2007 |
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December Avg |
33.45 |
0.85 |
61.82 |
4.45 |
-28.36 |
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November Avg |
32.60 |
-0.50 |
61.81 |
5.59 |
-29.21 |
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October Avg |
33.10 |
-0.07 |
60.90 |
5.90 |
-27.80 |
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September Avg |
33.17 |
1.17 |
61.75 |
5.17 |
-28.58 |
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August Avg |
32.00 |
1.58 |
61.67 |
6.33 |
-29.33 |
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July Avg |
30.42 |
-0.43 |
63.50 |
6.08 |
-33.08 |
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June Avg |
30.85 |
-2.38 |
63.23 |
6.00 |
-32.38 |
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May Avg |
33.22 |
-1.70 |
61.33 |
5.56 |
-28.11 |
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April Avg |
34.92 |
1.49 |
59.92 |
5.15 |
-25.00 |
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March Avg |
33.43 |
-0.24 |
60.43 |
6.14 |
-27.00 |
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February Avg |
33.67 |
-0.22 |
60.17 |
6.08 |
-26.50 |
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January Avg |
33.89 |
-1.61 |
61.61 |
4.83 |
-27.70 |
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2006 |
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December Avg |
35.50 |
-0.93 |
59.25 |
5.42 |
-23.75 |
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November Avg |
36.43 |
-1.07 |
58.00 |
5.50 |
-21.57 |
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October Avg |
37.50 |
-3.42 |
57.11 |
5.36 |
-19.61 |
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September Avg |
40.92 |
2.64 |
54.23 |
4.77 |
-13.31 |
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August Avg |
38.29 |
0.59 |
57.14 |
4.64 |
-18.86 |
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July Avg |
37.70 |
0.49 |
56.40 |
5.90 |
-18.70 |
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June Avg |
37.21 |
3.05 |
56.79 |
5.93 |
-19.57 |
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May Avg |
34.17 |
-1.58 |
60.33 |
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