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Next UPDATED: MAR 19, 2008 60,000 That is the number of North Carolina homes projected to be foreclosed in 2008. Bob Geary with the
Independent Weekly
authors a comprehensive article on the crisis facing literally tens of
thousands of North Carolinians who own homes. The article is essential
reading for all Democrats.
Since taking office in 2001, home foreclosures have rising during each year of Bush’s administration. 2008 will be another high watermark. If one doubt exists that Republican finger prints are on this crisis, consider that it was Bush’s administration that issued the regulatory rulings removing out of state lenders’ from under State regulatory control: State efforts are hampered, however, because most of the subprime mortgage loans were made by out-of-state banks and mortgage companies, which operate under national banking charters, not state regulations. These lenders haven't been subject to North Carolina's tough laws against predatory lending since 2003, when the Office of the Controller of the Currency, an obscure federal agency, issued a hotly disputed ruling. In that decision, the OCC said federal regulations—which are much weaker than North Carolina's—"pre-empt," or trump, nearly all state banking laws. (The rare exceptions are in cases involving state-chartered banks and loan companies.) As a result, states have been excluded from regulating real-estate transactions that historically had been under their watch, N.C. Attorney General Roy Cooper says. The 50 state attorneys general have fought the Bush administration on the OCC rule, but to no avail. "It's unconscionable," Cooper says, adding his office still investigates fraud cases. The U.S. Supreme Court has upheld the OCC's ruling. Another reason we are Democrats and a point that should be put in front of all North Carolina voters. _____________________________________________ UPDATED: MAR 16, 2008 PLAYING DEFENSE INTRODUCTION TPJ has published a number of articles analyzing the Democratic Party strategy retaining control of the North Carolina State Senate in 2004 and expanding that control from a 29 to 21 majority to a 31 to 19 in 2006. 2008 will be different; Democrats have few opportunities to expand their majority in the State Senate and will be pressed to hold their current 31 seat majority. It will be a year of defense. Today, TPJ explores larger parameters of the 2008 campaign for Democrats to retain majority control of the State Senate. The stakes are incredibly high as the 2008 election is the prelude to the 2010 election cycle in with the Senators elected will perform redistricting across North Carolina. Redistricting will greatly influence the balance of political power in North Carolina for the following decade. OVERVIEW Democrats have several advantages heading into the 2008 elections. First, Democrats have majority control of the Senate, and majority status facilitates fundraising. Second, the political climate in the State favors Democrats. Bush’s NC approval rating is well below 40% and his unpopularity will hurt Republicans generally. Third, Democrats are registering more new voters than Republicans by a margin of 3 to 1. In close races, these new voters could make the difference. Third, Democrats can largely control the legislative agenda and public debate in the 2008 short session of the General Assembly. Finally, and perhaps most importantly, Senate campaign leaders have played each election cycle with skill and precise focus. As noted below, Democrats currently control five Districts that would normally be expected to belong to Republicans. Crafting those victories is a testament to the political skills of Democratic leaders in the Senate. Even with these advantages, the 2008 election cycle will be a challenge for the Democratic Party. The voting margins on which the 2004 and 2006 Senate Democratic majority was won were small and several Democrats will be locked in heated fights to retain their seats. The recent expose on the State’s mental health system will have to be addressed in the upcoming session of the General Assembly and there are potential pitfalls for the Democrats on this issue. Republicans have a clear and viable path that could result in recapturing six seats and parity with Democrats in the State Senate. Conversely, a best case scenario for Democrats is a net gain of one seat or simply holding the majority they currently have. In short, 2008 will be a fever pitched battle in some ten to twelve Senate Districts. In 2006, Democrats expanded majority control in the State Senate. Several factors played a role in that accomplishment. First, six years of the Bush administration and Republican Congressional corruption resulted in a loss of public confidence in the Republican Party that is historic. Second, and perhaps most importantly, the right and uber right wings of the Republican Party delved into a self-imposed exorcism against each other for domination of their Party statewide. That philosophical battle divided their Party, impacting a number of State Senate Districts – Districts Democrats won. For example, Democrat Senator Steve Goss won in SD #45 by the narrowest of margins in a District that performs solidly Republican. It was an object lesson in political strategy and grass roots campaigning. Sen. Goss was not supported financially by the Senate Democratic Campaign Committee and many Democrat Party leaders were unaware that Sen. Goss was mounting a viable campaign. Sen. Goss mounted an impressive cadre of volunteers who went door to door in his District. Sen. Goss would most probably not have been elected however, if it had not been for the fact that David Blust defeated a Republican incumbent in the primary. Simply stated, Republicans in SD #45 split and Sen. Goss ran the perfect campaign to win.
Third, Democrats enjoyed incumbency. Democrats raised more money and outspent Republicans generally. The result was a net gain of two seats in 2006. 2008 ANALYSIS Passes A number of incumbents in each Party got a pass from the opposition Party; 11 Republicans and 9 Democrats. Democratic incumbents facing no Republican opponent are highlighted in blue and Republican incumbents with no Democratic Party opposition are highlighted in red in the chart at the end of this article. The Districts passed by each Party are logical. Each is a District that performs strongly for the Party in power and each has strong incumbents. With the national elections consuming enormous financial resources; both Parties have chosen targets that justify the limited financial resources that will be available. One Chart We believe each Party’s strategy is defined by the chart at the end of this article. Democrats built control of the State Senate, currently 31 Democrats and 19 Republicans, by holding 5 Districts that have more than 35% Republican voter registration and normally perform Republican (highlighted in grey within the “Incumbent” column). Senate Districts where Republicans hold 35% or more of all voter registrations are typically controlled by Republicans for two reasons. First, conservative Democrats cross over to vote for Republicans more often than “moderate” Republicans may cross over to support Democrats. Unaffiliated voters often split in favor of Republicans. Of the 24 Districts in which Republicans had 35% or greater voter registration in 2006 (highlighted in yellow below), Republicans hold 75% of those seats. Democrat victories within Republican performing Districts in 2006 are the exceptions to the general pattern of voter registration, political performance and political control. There are exceptional circumstances that explain Democrat control in each District and discussed briefly below with TPJ’s initial ratings for 2008: SD #45 Steve Goss was truly the “dark horse” of the 2006 election cycle. With virtually no funding from Democrats statewide, Sen. Goss won a Republican leaning District based on two factors. First, Republicans had a contentious primary in this District and entered the race divided. Second, Sen. Goss mounted a truly impressive door to door ground campaign. In 2008, Sen. Goss has two Republicans challenging to face him. IF the Republicans come out of the primary unified, Sen. Goss faces serious obstacles to reelection; IF Republicans are divided, Goss may hold this seat. TPJ rates: TOSS UP. SD #9 Julia Boseman won election in 2004 by the narrowest of margins in a very weak Republican performing District, reflective of the fact that this is truly a “swing” District. Republicans also diminished their chances of holding this seat in 2004 as they made a rather critical mistake of personally attacking Boseman based on her homosexuality. The personal attack backfired. Boseman enjoyed incumbency in 2006 and Democrats literally spent hundreds of thousands of dollars to ensure that she retained this seat in 2006. Republicans are fielding a young Republican attorney in 2008 who will present a more moderate image of the Republican Party rather than the “gay bating” campaigns of the past. It should prove to be an interesting contest. TPJ rates: LEANS DEMOCRAT. SD# 50 John Snow won in this far west District based on his years of public service as a distinguished Judge in the area. Snow won election with less than 500 votes in 2004. As an incumbent and with a weak Republican challenge in 2006, Sen. Snow held this seat more comfortably. Republicans have mounted a “B”-list candidate, but in this Republican area of the State anything can happen. TPJ rates: ADVANTAGE DEMOCRAT. SD#43 David Hoyle can best be described as a political miracle. Sen. Hoyle continues to win one of the most Republican performing Senate Districts in North Carolina. He is a long standing incumbent, which explains his continued success. Republican fielded a “B”-list candidate here, but any Republican challenger in this District is a real threat. In 2006, a Republican “C”-list candidate garnered 47% of the vote. TPJ rates: LEANS DEMOCRAT so long as Sen. Hoyle lives. SD#47 Joe Sam Queen holds one of the most interesting political Districts in the State Senate. Sen. Queen was an incumbent Democrat in 2004 when he was defeated. Queen returned to office in 2006 with a narrow win. This is truly a “swing” District and Democrats have demonstrated considerable skill in holding it even though it typically performs Republican according to Civitas. The grudge match continues in 2008 and Sen. Queen’s arch nemesis is back for another try. With the political winds currently blowing in favor of Democrats, Sen. Queen can and should hold this District. But, what does tomorrow bring? TPJ rates: LEANS DEMOCRAT Add to these five another five seats that Democrats hold in which special circumstances have brought serious Republican challenges. SD#16 This seat is open. Sen. Janet Cowell is running for State Treasurer. Three Democrats are running to fill the vacancy while the Republicans fielded but one candidate. Republican voter registration is 30% in a District where Unaffiliated voters have been rising at percentages in excess of the statewide average. IF Democrats can come out of the primary unified, this District can be held. If not, this is a prime target for a Republican gain. TPJ rates: LEANS DEMOCRAT SD# 24 Tony Foriest captured a Republican District in 2006. However, this District, in both voter registration and performance as rated by Civitas sits on the cusp of each Party’s control. Sen. Foriest has attracted an “A”-list opponent. Democrats will be hard pressed to hold this District. TPJ rates: TOSS UP SD#45 Incumbent Walter Dalton is running for Lt. Governor. Republican Representative Debbie Clary is competing for this SD which is partially encompassed by her House District. Two Democrats are challenging to take on Rep. Clary. Rep. Clary will actually enjoy incumbent status here as she is a known quantity in most of this District and is generally quite popular. TPJ rates: LEANS REPUBLICAN SD#27 This seat is open. Sen. Kay Hagan is running for US Senate. It should remain in Democratic Party control, but Republicans will test the political water here. TPJ rates: LEANS DEMOCRAT SD#5 Sen. John Kerr, a Democrat icon in the State Senate has retired. This seat is open. Democrats have six candidates running to fill the seat while Republicans moved three term Republican Rep. Louis M. Pate to contend for their Party. This District has been trending Republican in recent years and Republican share of voter registration has been increasing in this District through 2007. Having served three terms in the State House, Rep. Pate will have the incumbent’s advantage. In all probability, Democrats will have to endure two primaries; a financial drain on the ultimate nominee and potentially divisive. TPJ rates: TOSS UP Two additional races may come into play for Republicans, but represent “long shots” at the moment. SD#8 Democrat Sen. R.C. Soles, Jr. is perhaps the longest serving Democrat in the General Assembly. A true southern gentleman with a rapier mind, a passion for common people and a dedication to public service that will leave a legacy that may not be matched for generations to come. Yet, Sen. Soles District has been trending Republican. Before going into the 2006 election cycle, Democrats lost -5% voter registration share and this race was much closer than it should have been. Republicans have fielded a solid candidate. Democrats will have to defend strongly in another race that could consume hundreds of thousands of dollars. TPJ rates: LEANS DEMOCRAT SD#23 Sen. Ellie Kinnard should be assured reelection. Popular, progressive and Orange County is her base. But, during the legislative session Sen. Kinnard informed members and some of her supporters that she would be retiring. Informed sources suggest that Sen. Kinnard had planned that she would be replaced by a female candidate. When it appeared that replacement would not come forward, Kinnard was back in; but not before she drew a serious Democratic primary opponent. In addition, a “B”-list but interesting Republican has entered the field; Jon G. (Greg) Bass, 60, who is retired from the automotive industry and whose wife was recently named “Teacher of the Year” in Person County. The Democratic primary is going to be divisive and if Bass mounts an aggressive grass roots campaign, this could be a race. TPJ rates: ADVANTAGE DEMOCRAT Democrat Challenge Where do Democrats counter? At the moment, only two Districts stand out. SD#12 Republican incumbent Fred Smith is running for his Party’s nomination for Governor. This seat is open. In voter registration (40% Republican) and in Civitas’ performance rating (R+6), this District should remain Republican. Republicans have two primary challengers and their race could be divisive. Democrats have fielded two candidates; but one stands out. Kay Carroll is a 20 year member of the local School Board. He is a known quantity and is obviously popular. This is a race that Democrats may win.
TPJ rating: LEANS REPUBLICAN SD#15 Republican incumbent Neal Hunt holds this District, Civitas rates the District performing Republican by a marginal R+2, which is very marginal considering that Republican registration in the District is 40% and greater than Democratic registrations. Democrat Chris Mintz will mount a serious challenge here. If it is a Democratic “wave” election, Democrats could pick up a seat. TPJ rates: ADVANTAGE REPUBLICAN CONCLUSIONS The fact remains that Democrats increased their control over the State Senate in 2006. It is a feat that should be appreciated by Democrats even today. Trying to hold Democratic incumbents in five Republican performing Districts in 2008 will be the acid test of the political acumen of Senate Democrats. 2008 may be just the year in which defending these Districts is successful as some Democrats are sensing a political tidal wave is developing nationally, which will make the effort locally more plausable. At TPJ, our estimation is that Republicans have certain advantages in select SD’s discussed above. Republicans have made sage moves of two House incumbents to the two best possible pickup Districts. They are challenging in every open Democratic seat and where there is any potential Democratic weakness. Can Democrats hold the line? At the moment, five Democratic Districts could easily shift to Republicans, reducing Democratic control to 26 to 24. Democrats might offset with one or two pickups. Of course, there are always surprises; Sen. Goss being a perfect example in 2006. We believe that the ultimate degree of Democrat success will lie in how many new Democrats can be registered in the critical Districts and if Democrats can drive the percentage of Democrats voting up from some 39% from 2004 to some 45% in 2008. If Republicans can garner a net gain of four or five seats, they will be well positioned to play for actually majority control in 2010 – thereby controlling legislative redistricting. Conversely, if Democrats can retain their current majority or keep losses to net one or two seats, Democrats will enjoy a distinct advantage going into 2010. Each Democratic incumbent is precious to both the short and long term goals of the Party. Democrats need to make a special effort to register voters in the critical Districts. Rank and file Democrats should be financially supporting the Senate Campaign Committee to the fullest extent possible. Every dime will be needed. _________
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