UPDATED: MAR 12, 2008
SPINE
US House Democrats continue to “hold the line” on FISA. In the latest development, the House is set to advance a bill that attempts to balance legitimate national security concerns with individual rights:
In continued defiance of the White House, House Democratic leaders are readying a proposal that would reject giving legal protection to the phone companies that helped in the National Security Agency’s program of wiretapping without warrants after the Sept. 11 attacks, Congressional officials said Monday.
Instead of blanket immunity, the tentative proposal would give the federal courts special authorization to hear classified evidence and decide whether the phone companies should be held liable. House Democrats have been working out the details of their proposal in the last few days, officials said, and expect to take it to the House floor for a vote on Thursday.
The Democrats’ proposal would fall far short of what the White House has been seeking.
President Bush has been insisting for months that Congress give retroactive immunity to the phone companies, calling it a vital matter of national security. The Senate gave him what he wanted in a vote last month that also broadened the government’s eavesdropping powers.
But House Democratic leaders have balked at the idea.
Progressive Democrats are heartened over the House version of the bill – and that Democrats are starting to show some spine.
TREND?
One new poll has been released since TPJ’s report on Sunday; Newsweek. Still too early to say with reasonable probability that Bush is trending down again, but thus far in March, Bush’s approval rating is hovering just above 30.50%, suggesting but not proving that the downturn is real.
Of the three March polls, AP-Ipsos and Newsweek are recording almost identical numbers reported in February. The Washington Post’s March poll is a -1% decline in Bush’s approval rating over February. Again, if Bush’s approval rating is trending down, we would expect to see some polls released in the near future would peg Bush’s approval rating below 30%.
For TPJ readers who question if Bush’s approval/disapproval ratings have any practical significance at this stage of his Presidency, this snippet from an analysis of the Democratic Party’s recent special election victory in Illinois is offered for consideration (emphasis added):
"It's a bad sign" for Republicans, said John C. Fortier, a political analyst with the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative think tank. "It's not a confirmation that they're going to lose across the board [in the November elections], but these are the kinds of seats that Republicans should win, even in a year that isn't going so well."
President Bush easily carried the district in 2000 and 2004. Although the president's low approval ratings didn't help Mr. Oberweis, the district's strong Republican majority — along with Mr. Hastert's positive legacy — should have been enough to secure a Republican victory, Mr. Fortier said.
"You'd expect a Republican to win in this district," he said.
At TPJ, we suspect that many voters are directing their anger at Bush towards Republican Congressional candidates. From this perspective, Bush’s approval ratings are indeed important.
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Approve |
Trail Mo |
Disapprove |
No Opinion |
Spread |
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2008 |
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Newsweek |
3/5-6/08 |
30 |
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61 |
9 |
-31 |
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AP-Ipsos |
3/3-5/08 |
30 |
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66 |
4 |
-36 |
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ABC/Washington Post |
2/28 - 3/2/08 |
32 |
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66 |
2 |
-34 |
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March Avg |
30.67 |
-1.89 |
64.33 |
5.00 |
-33.67 |
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February Avg |
32.56 |
0.22 |
62.56 |
4.67 |
-30.00 |
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January Avg |
32.33 |
-1.12 |
63.13 |
4.47 |
-30.80 |
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2007 |
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December Avg |
33.45 |
0.85 |
61.82 |
4.45 |
-28.36 |
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November Avg |
32.60 |
-0.50 |
61.81 |
5.59 |
-29.21 |
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October Avg |
33.10 |
-0.07 |
60.90 |
5.90 |
-27.80 |
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September Avg |
33.17 |
1.17 |
61.75 |
5.17 |
-28.58 |
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August Avg |
32.00 |
1.58 |
61.67 |
6.33 |
-29.33 |
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July Avg |
30.42 |
-0.43 |
63.50 |
6.08 |
-33.08 |
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June Avg |
30.85 |
-2.38 |
63.23 |
6.00 |
-32.38 |
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May Avg |
33.22 |
-1.70 |
61.33 |
5.56 |
-28.11 |
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April Avg |
34.92 |
1.49 |
59.92 |
5.15 |
-25.00 |
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March Avg |
33.43 |
-0.24 |
60.43 |
6.14 |
-27.00 |
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February Avg |
33.67 |
-0.22 |
60.17 |
6.08 |
-26.50 |
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January Avg |
33.89 |
-1.61 |
61.61 |
4.83 |
-27.70 |
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2006 |
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December Avg |
35.50 |
-0.93 |
59.25 |
5.42 |
-23.75 |
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November Avg |
36.43 |
-1.07 |
58.00 |
5.50 |
-21.57 |
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October Avg |
37.50 |
-3.42 |
57.11 |
5.36 |
-19.61 |
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September Avg |
40.92 |
2.64 |
54.23 |
4.77 |
-13.31 |
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August Avg |
38.29 |
0.59 |
57.14 |
4.64 |
-18.86 |
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July Avg |
37.70 |
0.49 |
56.40 |
5.90 |
-18.70 |
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June Avg |
37.21 |
3.05 |
56.79 |
5.93 |
-19.57 |
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May Avg |
34.17 |
-1.58 |
60.33 |
5.91 |
-26.17 |
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April Avg |
35.75 |
-1.35 |
57.75 |
6.82 |
-22.00 |
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March Avg |
37.10 |
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