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archived: xx - xx Mar, 2008 Back Next UPDATED: MAR 5, 2008READY? Sen. Clinton bests Obama in three of four states on Tuesday; winning Texas, Ohio, Rhode Island and losing Vermont. The Democratic Presidential primary will continue to its end. North Carolinians are going to experience a Presidential primary that will be waged aggressively by both campaigns. It is an experience that supports of both candidates in the State may not see again during their lifetime. For those critical of North Carolina’s decision to wait to conduct its primary until the end of the election cycle; the wait will put North Carolina as one of the deciding states in the process. Are you ready? GOPOLINE It is not gasoline at these prices, it is GOPoline! Gasoline prices are rising rapidly and North Carolina is no exception. It is largely due to Republican economic policies. Perhaps no other commodity carries the potential political consequences as gasoline. North Carolinians feel and see the effect of it in their daily lives. This WSOC TV article makes the salient connection between price and impact: Currently the average price for a gallon of gas in Charlotte is $3.16, and the average for the state is $3.17 – an all-time high for the state. But some experts say it could go as high as $4 a gallon later this year. The costs are putting a strain on wallets and frustrating drivers. “That will get me to work today, tomorrow, and get me to lunch tomorrow, after that I'm putting $20 more or $30 more back in!” exclaimed Eric Leak. The father of two had just spent $20 on a half a tank of gas Tuesday. “It puts you in a situation where you have to make a decision: buy more Pampers for my kids or put more gas in the car so I can get to the grocery store. It's not right,” he said. Tom Crosby with AAA Carolinas said not only are consumers feeling the pinch, but some are actually driving less. . . . The soaring price of fuel has a ripple effect on the economy, said Peter Schwarz, a professor of economics at the University of North Carolina at Charlotte. “The economy has just about stalled, so these continuing higher gas prices are pretty likely to push us into a recession,” he said. Schwarz predicts this spring a gallon of gas could go for $3.40, and possibly go even higher around Memorial Day. By comparison, the average gas price this time last year was just $2.43. In the last election cycle, Democratic candidate Larry Kissell made a poignant political statement about the price of gasoline in relationship to hard working North Carolinians. Gasoline was a $1.22 when Republican Robin Hayes took office; and in the 2006 election cycle the national average was slightly over $3.00 per gallon. Kissell took over a gasoline station in this District and sold gasoline to his constituents at $1.22 per gallon, the price when Bush took office, his campaign paying the difference.
Kissell’s message was simple but highly effective: Oil companies "are making the biggest profits of anybody ever, and we give them tax break after tax break,” Kissell said. Everyday people “are telling us they need help."
"Robin Hayes has helped create the high cost of gas in North Carolina, and I'm going to be a part of the solution to lowering gas costs in North Carolina," Kissell said. Public reaction was spectacular. The event that was to last one hour was extended to four hours as hundreds of citizens waited in line for hours. The reaction of one motorist at the event confirms the impact of Kissell’s visceral demonstration: "I think he's finally got an idea of what everybody should have been doing a long time ago, which is care about the common person,” driver Monty Allen said. The promotion also contrasts Kissell’s positions on energy with Rep. Robin Hayes: Hayes voted for last year's final energy bill that would open an Alaska wildlife refuge to oil drilling and funnel more than $12 billion in tax breaks and subsidies to energy companies. Opponents said the bill would do little to reduce energy use. Gasoline will be going higher. NC Democrats should be giving Republicans the “gas.” _____________________________________________ UPDATED: MAR 2, 2008SEN. OBAMA TO NC DEMS A group of energized North Carolina Obama supporters met recently with the Senator’s campaign national operatives. The volunteers quizzed Sen Obama’s staff on ways they could help in the looming campaign in North Carolina. A highly reliable and informed source recounts the reply: Get out and register voters! In TPJ’s estimation, it is precisely the correct answer! The following articles today should highlight the point that Sen. Obama’s campaign is making. REGISTER A NEW NORTH CAROLINA Democrats must “Register A New North Carolina.” It is the path to victory in North Carolina in 2008. TPJ offers every Democrat a Power Point Show (graphics and audio) providing the facts and path to victory in North Carolina in 2008.
Get your copy today – absolutely free of charge and no obligations -- by sending your name and mailing address to TPJ through TPJ’s FEEDBACK, just click the button on the left side of this webpage or email sgheen@nc.rr.com with your name and mailing address. A DVD data disc will be mailed to your address within twenty-four hours. In order to play the DVD, you will need: 1. A computer with a DVD drive; 2. MS Power Point ’97 or later edition (or download a free MS Power point reader at 3. Sound capability. Help make NC Blue in November – order your copy today. MINUS ONE – THE LONELIEST NUMBER One is the loneliest number – and it belongs to North Carolina Republicans. TPJ’s analysis of current North Carolina voter registration from January ’08 to February 23rd can be found at the following hyperlink:
TPJ'S NORTH CAROLINA VOTER REGISTRATION
CHART: 2008 TPJ is measuring “net” gains/losses in voter registration. Voter registration is never static. New voters register while existing registrations are cancelled as voters, move, die or are removed from the voter rolls because of inactivity in voting. Therefore, TPJ measures “net” gains/losses; new voter registrations minus those removed from voter rolls for any reason. Our observations and conclusions are: 1. New voter registrations are certainly up in North Carolina, some 64,000 new voters added since January 1st. However, when “net” gains/losses are measured the effect is an overall increase of some 36,000. It is certainly an impressive number for the first two months of the year, but the increase is less than 1% of all registered voters. 2. Unaffiliated voters are the big winners in raw numbers of new registrations and net registrations. These are the “net” registrations thus far in 2008:
3. Even though Democrats performed much better in raw new registrations and “net” registrations relative to Republicans, Democrats still lost percentage share in “net” vote registrations. Democrats lost -.09% and Republican lost -.14%. Starting January, these were the percentages of voters:
On February 23rd, the percentages were:
4. Unaffiliated voters actually led registrations or tied for the lead in 91 of 100 counties (color coded yellow in TPJ’s chart). Democrats led registrations or tied in 9 counties. Democrats were 2nd in 62 counties; Republicans in 30 counties and Unaffiliated in 8 counties (color coded in green in TPJ’s chart). 5. Democrats simply have to do more to catch the “wave” of new voters registering to vote. Local Democratic Party organizations should be building an infrastructure for voter registration. All signs point to the fact that Democrats could actually reverse the decline in Democratic voter registration. Why the title of this article, “ONE – THE LONELIEST NUMBER.” It is the number of counties in which Republicans led voter registrations. Republican led “net” registrations in only ONE county from January through February 23rd – Anson County. They led registrations on a loss of -1 as Democrats lost -10 and Unaffiliated -6. It is a distinction that Republicans richly deserve and every Democrat hopes that they maintain. REALLY MATTERS? Does voter registration really matter? At TPJ, we think the answer is a compelling – YES! In a recent article, we analyzed voter registration and its correlation to political control of seats in the North Carolina State House. Today, we analyze voter registration and political control of the North Carolina State Senate. The overarching conclusion is that where in Districts where Republicans hold 35% or more of all voter registrations, a Republican more likely than not holds that Senate District. The chart immediately below demonstrates the correlation between voter registration, partisan performance and political control. These are the salient facts and conclusions: 1. Of the 24 Districts in which Republicans have 35% or greater voter registration (highlighted in yellow below), Republicans hold 75% of those seats. 2. Of these 24 Districts, Civitas’ performance analysis demonstrates that ALL have positive Republican performance. 3. Republicans currently hold no Districts in which they have less than 35% of voter registrations. 4. Where Republicans hold less than 35% of registrations, Civitas rates only two has having positive Republican performance generally (highlighted in grey below); Districts 37 and 24. In both, the Republican performance advantage is a low +2 or +3. 5. In 2006, two Districts returned to their respective folds. In District 2, a Democrat incumbent retired and Republicans regained this District consistent with voter registration and performance patterns. 6. Democrats have built control of the State Senate, currently 31 Democrats and 19 Republicans, by holding 5 Districts that normally perform Republican (highlighted in grey within the “Incumbent” column). These are the exceptions to the general pattern of voter registration, political performance and political control. There are exceptional circumstances that explain Democrat control in each. We discuss each briefly below. Steve Goss was truly the “dark horse” of the 2006 election cycle. With virtually no funding from Democrats statewide, Sen. Goss won a Republican leaning District based on two factors. First, Republicans had a contentious primary in this District and entered the race divided. Second, Sen. Goss mounted a truly impressive door to door ground campaign. Julia Boseman won election in 2004 by the narrowest of margins in a very weak Republican performing District, reflective of the fact that this is truly a “swing” District. Republicans also diminished their chances of holding this seat in 2004 as they made a rather critical mistake of personally attacking Boseman based on her homosexuality. Boseman enjoyed incumbency in 2006 and Democrats literally spend hundreds of thousands of dollars to ensure that she retained this seat in 2006. John Snow won in the far west based on his years of public service as a distinguished Judge in the District. Snow won election with less than 500 votes in 2004. As an incumbent and a weak Republican challenge in 2006, Sen. Snow held this seat. David Hoyle can best be described as a political miracle. Sen. Hoyle continues to win one of the most Republican performing Senate Districts in North Carolina. He is a long standing incumbent, which explains his continued success. Joe Sam Queen holds one of the most interesting political Districts in the State Senate. Sen. Queen was an incumbent Democrat in 2004 when he was defeated. Queen returned to office in 2006 with a narrow win. This is truly a “swing” District and Democrats have demonstrated considerable skill in holding it even though it typically performs Republican according to Civitas. 7. The five Districts discussed above will certainly be in play in 2008. If Democrats were to lose these five Districts, the current powerful 31 to 19 advantage favoring Democrats shrinks to a mere 26 to 24 distribution in favor of Democrats. It is obvious that Democrats need to be registering new voters to improve their chances of retaining majority control of the North Carolina State Senate. If Democrat share of voter registration continues to decrease, Democrats may awake from one election cycle wondering what happened.
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