UPDATED:  JAN 31, 2008

                        FLORIDA  

Hillary has won Florida with a strong performance following on the heels of Obama’s impressive victory in South Carolina.  If South Carolina gave Obama momentum, it certainly did not show in the Florida results. 

Florida was the end of Edwards’ campaign.  Talk of a “brokered” convention are now off the table.  It will be Hillary or Obama.  

TPJ’s current operating hypothesis is that based on the demographics of both candidates’ support, the electoral map heading into Super Tuesday appears to favor Hillary.  In our view, Hillary has built a solid base of support among largely White and Latino voters who tend to be more Democratic in voting performance than Obama supporters.  Obama has built a core of support among African-American voters and younger voters who tend to be more independent in voting performance.   

The Florida results provide further confirmation of TPJ’s hypothesis.  The discussion that follows is based upon TPJ’s chart, TPJ's NH/NV/SC/FL COMPARISON that can be viewed by clicking on the hyperlink.   

These are the major points: 

1.        Voters participating in the Democratic primary remain highly consistent at approximately 41% men and 59% women.  The percentage of women is a full 6% to 7% than in General Elections.  As Hillary attracts the largest share of female vote, this trend favors her campaign.  

2.       Obama’s core support is among African-American voters and that fact remained true in Florida, Obama carrying 70% of African-Americans.  In SC, where 54% of all voters were African-American, Obama won by large margins.  In Nevada, New Hampshire and Florida, where the percentage of African-American voters was below 20%, Hillary won.

3.        Much has been made of the fact that Obama received some 24% of all White votes in SC.  In Florida that percentage was 22%, very consistent with South Carolina.  However, Hillary increased her share of African-American voters in Florida to 27%, the best performance among this group.  Conversely, Obama’s support, while still quite solid, was the lowest percentage of African-American support received in any primary covered by TPJ. 

4.        Hillary continues to attract Latino voters at a rate of about 2 to 1.  In Florida, Latino voters accounted for 12% of the vote and Hillary received 69% to Obama’s 30%.

5.       Hillary has solid support in the Democratic core of voters, which grows with the age of the voter.  Except for SC;  Nevada, New Hampshire and Florida Democrats favored Hillary.

Contrast Democrat performance for Obama.  Except for SC, Obama has not reached above 40% of Democrats.  And, his trend has been down in successive primaries except South Carolina.  

In sum, TPJ still holds that the Democrat primary has remained largely divided on race, sex, age and loyalty to the Democratic Party.  These demographics hold rather consistent; it is the change of demographics in each State that changes and determines the result.

In Florida, Clinton held her base, picked up a slight increase in African-Americans and Independents to achieve her victory. 

We think it unlikely that Edwards’ exit from the contest will substantially alter the dynamics.

IF these patterns hold true going into Super Tuesday, expect Hillary to outperform Obama in the majority of States. Larry Sabato states the situation best:

Super Tuesday holds the answers. 

                        ITS OVER  

John McCain, counted as dead by political pundits a month ago, won Florida on Tuesday. Republicans voting in the primary, actually split evenly between McCain and Romney.  Independents, accounting for 17% of all votes, broke the tie, siding with McCain by a substantial margin.

Giuliani is out and endorses McCain.  

Huckabee failed to score in Florida, finishing fourth.  

At TPJ, we think the Republican Presidential primary is essentially over – McCain will most likely be that Party’s nominee absent profound new developments.  Republican core conservatives are apoplectic.  

While Democratic leaders may never admit it, we suspect that Democratic strategists would have preferred to run against Romney.  McCain will be a most formidable candidate in the General Election.  Two questions emerge; Republican uber conservatives may bolt his candidacy and can McCain garner independent voters?   

                        SAY WHAT?  

Headline writers can produce some of the funniest quips.  The AP authored this headline: 

Bush Mostly Down in Polls

Interpreting the headline that some polls may have found Bush, we immediately rushed read the article immediately below:

Well, every poll listed showed Bush down from the previous poll.  So, if “most” polls show Bush down, where are the few that show Bush up?  At TPJ we are still looking.   

Our most current survey of public polls shows that Bush remains at historic lows; a position that has lasted over the last year.  The last four months have shown Bush’s approval rating moving within a 1% range of 33% and his disapproval rating increasing slightly.