|
archived:
20 - 26 Jan, 2008
Back
Next UPDATED: JAN 22, 2008 BUSH’S ECONOMY Republican economic policy is taking its toll in North Carolina. In December, some 13,000 North Carolinians lost their jobs, and the unemployment rate is up: North Carolina’s jobless rate increased by the largest margin in nine months during December, rising to 5 percent from 4.7 percent in November, the N.C. Employment Security Commission reported yesterday. The rate also reached a five-month high. Economists cautioned that it is likely to rise by another half-percent by midyear as the economy slows. It was only the second time during 2007 that the unemployment rate was at 5 percent. Economists said that by traditional definition, a 5 percent unemployment rate signifies an economy at full employment in which everyone available for work has a job. North Carolina’s jobless-rate mirrored that of the national rate for the third consecutive month. North Carolina’s jobless rate historically has been below the national rate. The commission reported that the number of North Carolinians listed as unemployed rose 13,100 in December. The unemployment rate typically decreases in December, as retailers hire temporary workers for the holiday-shopping season. “Whether we’re in a slow-growth period or a recession, I forecast either situation will lead to higher unemployment in the state in the coming months, possibly peaking out at 5.4 percent to 5.5 percent by midyear,” said Michael Walden, an economics professor at N.C. State University. It will get worse. North Carolina Republicans will try to convince voters that because Democrats control State Government, responsibility for the increase in unemployment rests with our Party. Democrats need to be out making the case that national Republican policy set this storm in motion. STUMBLE Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory announced – perhaps actually stumbled – into the Republican primary for NC Governor. Following his announcement, someone on McCroy’s staff issued a press release misspelling “governer” [sic]. The Charlotte Observer elaborates: When McCrory announced his candidacy, his campaign put out a release saying he was running for "governer." It was an embarrassing mistake but not a huge one. What came next was far worse. McCrory's campaign manager concocted a story about a hacker breaking into the McCrory campaign computers and changing the spelling as a dirty trick. She repeated the story -- even contradicting her own campaign spokeswoman -- until McCrory ended the agony by acknowledging that the campaign had made a mistake. Rule No. 1 of political campaigns: The coverup is usually far worse than the original sin. The episode raises questions about whether McCrory is prepared to make the jump into the political big time. One reason that four recent Charlotte mayors have failed to win statewide office is that they had been lulled into the false view that being mayor is the political major leagues. It's not. There is not as much competition among candidates, not as much media scrutiny nor as much likelihood of hardball politics. Not the way to start a campaign. _____________________________________________ UPDATED: JAN 19, 2008MESSAGES For North Carolina TPJ readers who are progressive Democrats supporting Obama, we strongly recommend reading “NEVADA” in today’s THEM DEMS. Voter registration anyone? YAWN TPJ has received a number of communications from our friends regarding TPJ’s continuing series on Democrat voter registration in North Carolina. The essential message is that TPJ has run enough articles; Democrats get the message. Perhaps, but while Democrats may “get” the message, Democrats have not acted on the message. One reader asked if voter registration is really that important. They noted that substantial numbers of registered voters do not vote; and they should be the priority. In our estimation, such logic is circular. If a group of registered voters is not voting, then you need to add voters to the rolls who will vote. Or, does it really matter. We believe the analysis below denotes the clarion call for Democrat Party organization of a statewide sustained voter registration program. The chart below provides the voter registration statistics for each State House District for immediately prior to the 2004 and 2006 election cycles. The Party that controlled the District is shown for both cycles. Based on 2005 voter registration data (the general basis for the 2006 election cycle), Districts with Republican dominance in voter registration is highlighted in red and Districts where Democrats have voter registration advantage are highlighted in blue. The percentage difference between Democrat and Republican registrations appears in the last column. A minus sign denotes that Republicans hold the percentage advantage indicated. A positive number denotes the degree of that Party’s advantage. The counties are then ranked from the most Republican in voter registration advantage to the most Democrat. Just looking at the chart below, it is relatively clear that MOST Districts are held by the Party that dominates voter registration. Out of the 43 Districts in which Republicans have an equal or greater percentage of registrations than Democrats, Democrats hold only three of those seats (indicated by blue highlight in the 2005 voter registration field). Of the 57 Districts in which Democrats have a voter registration advantage, Republicans hold 12 seats. The comparison can be further refined. There are 35 Districts in which the voter registration percentage between the parties is 10% or less; 21 Districts in which Republicans have a slight advantage and 14 with a slight Democrat advantage. Three points: 1. Outside of the counties that are over + 10%, Democrats hold NO Republican seats and just three Republicans hold Democrat dominant districts. 2. Within the 35 Districts that fall within + or – 10%, Republicans hold 27 and Democrats just 8. 3. In looking back at 2006, of the 5 seats that Democrats gained, 2 were in Democrat dominant voter registration Districts. In the 3 Districts that Democrats won in slight Republican dominant Districts, all three included contests in which Republicans fractured between moderates and conservatives. Obviously, voter registration does make a difference. Democrat Party share continues to decline. IF the patterns outlined above continue along with a decline in Democratic registrations there are at least 8 more Democrat dominant districts that could come into pay between 2008 and 2012. TPJ continues to believe that the case needs to be made until Democrats fashion a coherent and effective statewide plan to combat the trends. For TPJ’s previous articles in this series, click below:
OUCH!
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||