Them Dems

archived: 13 - 19 Jan, 2008         Back                 Next

UPDATED:  JAN 16, 2008

                        TAXES 

Democracy Corps, a TPJ favorite, has published a fascinating survey indicating that a leading issue for Democrats in the upcoming election cycle is tax policy.  DC summarizes their findings: 

In our survey conducted in mid-December in the battleground, the most competitive 65 congressional districts – 25 held by Democrats and 40 by Republicans1 – Republicans have no starting advantage on taxes, despite the Republican-leaning sample. Moreover, the Democrats establish a large advantage when they show their tax-cutting priorities, focused on the middle class and reversing inequality by requiring the wealthiest to pay taxes too. Voters rally to this approach on tax cuts whether it is on short-term issues like the Alternative Minimum Tax or major long-term tax reform. At the end of the survey, the Democratic candidate not only increased their vote margin in Republican districts, they gained trust on handling taxes. 

As we shall see in this survey, this battleground electorate wants bold changes to the tax system to help the middle class financially and to make sure the top end pays. To be frank, we have seen few areas – from health care to Iraq – where the Democrats’ argument and policy so dominate those of the Republicans – defeating them consistently by 15 to 20 points or more.

Every Democrat should read DC’s full report.

_____________________________________________

UPDATED:  JAN 13, 2008

                        BORDER PATROL  

Democrats should ask themselves why Bush, who tends toward law and order policy positions (remember the Obama pledge – “dead or alive”) is steadfastly refusing to enforce Federal laws to remove the estimated 12 MILLION non-documented foreign residents in the United States.   

The simple truth is that if America rounded up and returned every illegal immigrant, the result would be an economic depression in the United States.   That conclusion is not mere speculation, but is reached from experience.  Consider the results of “Operation Vanguard:”   

In 1999, the Immigration and Naturalization Service launched "Operation Vanguard," a program whose stated purpose was to remove the employment magnet that draws undocumented workers to the United States. The program targeted undocumented workers in the meatpacking industry by identifying workers with discrepancies between their employment and Social Security records, suggesting the use of a false Social Security number. After workers were identified, agents scheduled interviews, admittedly hoping that a large number of workers would not show up at all, but would "voluntarily terminate." 

And terminate they did. Not just those without papers, but a significant number of authorized workers who nonetheless had discrepancies in their documentation. Many of them preferred to quit rather than be interviewed because of widespread trepidation in immigrant communities regarding the INS (now U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, or ICE).  

Because so many workers were leaving their jobs in Nebraska, slaughter-line speeds had to be slowed down. This slower pace of production hurt farmers, because it produced a decline in demand and prices paid for cattle and hogs. Likewise, it badly hurt consumers, who faced appreciably reduced supplies of cattle and hogs and corresponding price increases. Meatpackers argued that losing their workers could cause them to close plants, damaging the whole infrastructure of the industry. Others argued that the economic effects would reach the Latino business community.  

The economic impact of Operation Vanguard on the state was so profound that Gov. Mike Johanns appointed a task force to study its statewide effects. In October 2000 the task force recommended against a resumption of the program and for endorsing amendments easing restrictions on permanent residency and citizenship and considering an amnesty.

Magnify the results of Operation Vanguard if 12 MILLION undocumented residents are removed. Productivity would fall, labor costs would dramatically increase and thousands of business would have to close their doors.  

The effects on agriculture in the United States and prices for food would be devastating.  One editorial writer in Colorado notes their experience: 

Colorado is a success story of sorts for the camp that believes illegal immigrants are nothing more than criminals who ought to be barred at the border. 

The state's tough laws -- which encourage local police to check papers and make sure no one without a fistful of proper documentation receives one penny's worth of social services or a driver's license -- actually worked. Immigrants, both illegal and documented (who don't want the hassle), have stayed away. 

In fact, so few migrant workers showed up for last year's harvest that crops were left to rot in the field. 

In order to avoid a repeat of that in the future, Colorado has hit on another idea: Use convicted criminals to pick crops. 

Farmers can pay convicts piddling wages; the crops will get picked under armed guard; Colorado's farming industry will remain viable; the dregs of society will earn their three hots and a cot; and everyone will be happy.  

Well, not quite everyone. Landscapers and the owners of restaurants, car washes and other service-oriented businesses can't fill their low-wage jobs either. But it isn't as if Colorado's ready for prisoners to bus tables or trim residential trees. 

So why would Colorado reward farmers with 60-cent-an-hour labor when the farmers who formerly relied on illegal immigrants were breaking the law? After all, the argument goes, businesses should be held accountable for their role in the growing illegal immigrant problem. 

Because the sad truth that few in the anti-immigration crowd wish to admit is that cheap labor artificially suppresses food prices. 

Unless Americans are willing to further subsidize through tax dollars the cost of bringing crops to market or to pay higher prices in the grocery stores, we need some type of lawbreaker -- whether an illegal immigrant or an American criminal -- to do the backbreaking work for next to nothing in wages.

As the campaign rhetoric grows over the issue former Gov. Huckabee has come under attack by his fellow Republicans for his view on undocumented residents when Governor.  Those views: 

When he was governor, Huckabee held the following positions on illegal immigration: He supported higher education benefits for children of illegal immigrants, opposed a federal roundup of illegals from his state in 2005, opposed a 2001 bill requiring proof of citizenship to vote in the state, and in 2001, a member of his administration pushed for legislation to grant driver's licenses to illegal immigrants.

                        PRUNING THE SHRUB

Two new polls have been released in January; Gallup and AP-Ipsos.  Bush’s approval rating remains mired at in a narrow range near 30%.  However, Bush’s average disapproval rating is above 63% for only the second time since January 2005.  The spread between approval and disapproval has crossed 30% for only the third time beginning with 2005. Not good news for the President or the Republican Party.

Gallup’s January poll is a full -5% from their December 6-9th poll.  AP-Ipsos’s January poll is -2% from its December poll.  Do these declines represent Bush trending downward again?  At TPJ we think it is unlikely.  We simply viewed Gallup’s December poll as out of line with its previous and subsequent polling.  These are Gallup’s polling results since September 2007: 

 

 

Approve

Disapprove

Unsure

 

 

 

%

%

%

 

N

 

1/4-6/08

32

64

4

 

1,023

 

12/14-16/07

32

65

3

 

1,011

 

12/6-9/07

37

57

5

 

1,027

 

11/30 - 12/2/07

34

62

4

 

1,006

 

11/11-14/07

32

61

7

 

1,014

 

11/2-4/07

31

64

5

 

1,024

 

10/12-14/07

32

64

3

 

1,009

 

10/4-7/07

32

64

4

 

1,010

Similarly, AP-Ipsos’ December poll was uncharacteristically high.

 

Approve

Disapprove

Mixed
Feelings

Unsure

 

 

 

%

%

%

%

 

.

1/7-9/08

34

63

2

1

 

.

12/3-5/07

36

61

1

1

 

.

11/5-7/07

32

65

3

-

 

.

10/1-3/07

31

66

2

1

 

 

Thus far in 2008, Bush’s approval/disapproval ratings look remarkably like a continuation of his poor performance throughout 2007.  Absent some major developments, it appears Bush’s approval/disapproval ratings will continue to hover at their current average levels.

TPJ'S BUSH WATCH

 

 

Approve

Trail Mo

Disapprove

No Opinion

Spread

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2007

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AP-Ipsos

1/7-9/08

34

 

63

3

-29

Gallup

1/4-6/08

32

 

64

4

-32

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

December Avg

33.00

-0.45

63.50

3.50

-30.50

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

December Avg

33.45

0.85

61.82

4.45

-28.36

 

November Avg

32.60

-0.50

61.81

5.59

-29.21

 

October Avg

33.10

-0.07

60.90

5.90

-27.80

 

September Avg

33.17

1.17

61.75

5.17

-28.58

 

August Avg

32.00

1.58

61.67

6.33

-29.33

 

July Avg

30.42

-0.43

63.50

6.08

-33.08

 

June Avg

30.85

-2.38

63.23

6.00

-32.38

 

May Avg

33.22

-1.70

61.33

5.56

-28.11

 

April Avg

34.92

1.49

59.92

5.15

-25.00

 

March Avg

33.43

-0.24

60.43

6.14

-27.00

 

February Avg

33.67

-0.22

60.17

6.08

-26.50

 

January Avg

33.89

-1.61

61.61

4.83

-27.70

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2006

 

 

 

 

 

 

December Avg

35.50

-0.93

59.25

5.42

-23.75

 

November Avg

36.43

-1.07

58.00

5.50

-21.57

 

October Avg

37.50

-3.42

57.11

5.36

-19.61

 

September Avg

40.92

2.64

54.23

4.77

-13.31