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The Political Junkies

Tumble Weed (Bush) Watch 

archived: 6 - 12 Jan, 2008         Back                 Next

UPDATED:  JAN 9, 2008

                        COALITION OF THE WILLING? 

Bush is even losing the support of his own foreign service

Nearly half of U.S. diplomats unwilling to volunteer to work in Iraq say one reason for their refusal is they don't agree with Bush administration's policies in the country, according to a survey released Tuesday.  

Security concerns and separation from family ranked as the top reasons for not wanting to serve in Iraq. But 48 percent cited "disagreement" with administration policy as a factor in their opposition, said the survey conducted by the American Foreign Service Association, the union that represents U.S. diplomats. 

In addition, nearly 70 percent of U.S. diplomats who responded to the survey oppose forced assignments to Iraq, a prospect that sparked a storm of controversy last year when the State Department announced it might have to require such tours under penalty of dismissal in the largest diplomatic call-up to a war zone since Vietnam. 

The results suggest the State Department may be facing a far more serious revolt over Iraq among its ranks than previously thought, and call into question its ability to fully staff diplomatic missions in Iraq, as well as those in Afghanistan and other dangerous posts deemed critical to the administration's foreign policy goals.

            LATTE WITH FOAM  

Starbucks is feeling the economic pain, and their CEO is fired.  One of the better performing companies on the stock exchanges has seen its sales in the United States declining.  One of the factors driving the fall – Bush economic policy: 

Starbucks has struggled in recent months as consumers have cut back on spending amid declining home values and higher fuel prices. 

Starbucks is down, but so are hard working Americans

Prices of existing U.S. single-family homes recorded their biggest annual drop in October, suggesting the housing slump is far from over, a national home price gauge released on Wednesday showed. 

The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller year-over-year index of 10 metropolitan areas fell to 209.68 in October, down 6.7 percent from a year earlier. The decline surpassed the 6.3 percent drop in April 1991. 

"No matter how you look at these data, it is obvious that the current state of the single-family housing market remains grim," said Robert Shiller, chief economist at MacroMarkets LLC, in a statement.

Republican economic policy failure is reaching every segment of American society.  The worst may yet be to come.

_____________________________________________

UPDATED:  JAN 6, 2008

            ANOTHER BUSH FIRST 

Under Bush’s stewardship, America achieves another first in modern history: 

LIVING standards in Britain are set to rise above those in America for the first time since the 19th century, according to a report by the respected Oxford Economics consultancy. 

The calculations suggest that, measured by gross domestic product per capita, Britain can now hold its head up high in the economic stakes after more than a century of playing second fiddle to the Americans. 

It says that GDP per head in Britain will be £23,500 this year, compared with £23,250 in America, reflecting not only the strength of the pound against the dollar but also the UK economy’s record run of growth and rising incomes going back to the early 1990s. 

In those days, according to Oxford Economics, Britain’s GDP per capita was 34% below that in America, 33% less than in Germany and 26% lower than in France. Now, not only have average incomes crept above those in America but they are more than 8% above France (£21,700) and Germany (£21,665). 

“The past 15 years have seen a dramatic change in the UK’s economic performance and its position in the world economy,” said Adrian Cooper, managing director of Oxford Economics. “No longer are we the ‘sick man of Europe’. Indeed, our calculations suggest that UK living standards are now a match for those of the US.”                 

From a macro perspective, Bush is leading America into a decline from its preeminence as the leading power in the world.  The National Intelligence Council, a center of strategic thinking within the US Government, reporting to the Director of Central Intelligence and providing the President and senior policymakers with analyses of foreign policy issues that have been reviewed and coordinated throughout the Intelligence Community, produced a report in 2005 predicting that America, while remaining a central power in the world, will not be alone. These are some of the highlights from the report: 

The likely emergence of China and India, as well as others, as new major global players—similar to the advent of a united Germany in the 19th century and a powerful United States in the early 20th century—will transform the geopolitical landscape, with impacts potentially as dramatic as those in the previous two centuries. In the same way that commentators refer to the 1900s as the “American Century,” the 21st century may be seen as the time when Asia, led by China and India, comes into its own. A combination of sustained high economic growth, expanding military capabilities, and large populations will be at the root of the expected rapid rise in economic and political power for both countries.  . . .  

The United States, too, will see its relative power position eroded, though it will remain in 2020 the most important single country across all the dimensions of power. – Mapping The Global Future (this reports is some 123 pages long, but is well worth the time to read) 

Question for Americans: had enough Republican economic policy? 

                        JOBS/DEPRESSION 

Prognosticators predicted that December’s Bureau of Labor report on employment would find 77,000 new jobs created in December.  The BOL’s report found only 18,000 new jobs created.  The economy has to produce some 150,000 new jobs every month just to keep pace with new workers entering the workforce.  

With employment declining, the unemployment rate increased to 5% in December, a .3% single month increase.  This is an unusually high one month increase.  As one financial advisor observed: 

"It's a scary number, no question about it," Joe Balestrino, senior portfolio manager at Federated Investors, said of Friday's jobs report. "No matter how good you wanted to feel about the economy averting a recession, there is far less conviction than even two or three days ago."

As bad as the December employment report is on its face, the situation may be far worse.  The BOL estimates certain aspects of job creation and job loss in fashioning its report.  One estimate is termed the “birth/death ratio.”  The BOL does not actually survey small businesses or new businesses to determine job creation/job destruction, but instead estimates the number of new jobs “born” and jobs that were lost (death) based on historical trends taken from a number of other government reports.  

In December’s report, the BOL’s “birth/death ratio” added 66,000 new jobs to the final report of 18,000.  If jobs reported by the “birth/death ratio” were removed from the report, the report would have found an overall loss of 48,000 jobs.  

John Maudlin looks at the “birth/death” estimate that 17,000 financial sector jobs were created in December and opines: 

Does anyone seriously think that 17,000 jobs were created in the financial services world this last month? Where did that 17,000 number come from? Well, last year it was also 17,000. In fact, if you look at 2006, the numbers track very closely with 2007, which track closely with 2005, and so on. My prediction is that in a few years when the data is revised we will find that December saw a loss of jobs.

Job creation is clearly stalling.  More fundamentally, the economy is faltering under the weight of the “credit crisis,” plummeting housing prices, and now weaker consumer spending.  Respected economists are raising the alarm bells.  Several examples: 

Bernard Connolly, global strategist at Banque AIG, said the Fed and allies had scripted a Greek tragedy by under-pricing credit long ago and seem paralysed as post-bubble chickens now come home to roost. "The central banks are trying to dissociate financial problems from the real economy. They are pushing the world nearer and nearer to the edge of depression. We hope they will eventually be dragged kicking and screaming to do enough, but time is running out," he said.

York professor Peter Spencer, chief economist for the ITEM Club, says the global authorities have just weeks to get this right, or trigger disaster. 

"The central banks are rapidly losing control. By not cutting interest rates nearly far enough or fast enough, they are allowing the money markets to dictate policy. We are long past worrying about moral hazard," he says. 

"They still have another couple of months before this starts imploding. Things are very unstable and can move incredibly fast. I don't think the central banks are going to make a major policy error, but if they do, this could make 1929 look like a walk in the park," he adds.

Of course, Bush touts a sound American economy: 

U.S. President George W. Bush said on Friday that the U.S. economy was on solid footing despite a weak employment report, and gave no hint of what his administration may have in store to bolster growth.

Bush is simply maintaining Republican policy of “free markets.”  Republicans will simply let the “markets” work through this “problem.”  When the credit crunch started, Bush failed to intervene with regulations.  As the crisis worsened and political pressure grew, he finally offered a plan that by all accounts was a highly limited and was judged to be ineffectual.  

The only question now is how many Americans will be financially ruined because of Republican “do nothing” policy.  Just months ago, Bernake and Bush projected that the “credit crisis” was “contained.”  Then they told Americans that the economy would slow, but there would be no recession.  As “the markets” failed to right themselves, Americans were told that there might be a recession, but it would be a “soft landing.”   

Now, we have competent experts warning of a “depression,” one that “could make 1929 look like a walk in the park.”   Roughly translated, far more Americans are going to be financially ruined because of Republican economic policy than the Republican leadership admitted just months ago.   

In 2008, Americans can change this course by electing Democrats.

NEXT - THEM DEMS

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Last Update: 02/03/2008