UPDATED: JAN 9, 2008
POLLS
As TPJ is being written, the New Hampshire primary results are being tallied; Hillary has just been projected the winner. A number of polling firms vastly overestimated Obama’s “lead” in New Hampshire, several polls finding a double digit lead immediately prior to the election.
Pollster (A TPJ favorite) published a closing list of New Hampshire polls:
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And, we had such wonderful predictions as this:
Even though Obama and Clinton are in a statistical tie in both polls, such "polling numbers are like a snapshot of a moving train" as GOP pundit/consultant Michael Murphy ventured on Meet the Press. Open Left's Chris Bowers has post-Iowa poll averages for NH showing Obama with a 4.2 percent lead over Clinton. Says Bowers: Obama is clearly ahead in New Hampshire right now. With only two days left and the momentum overwhelmingly on his side in the state, it is very; very hard to see how he doesn't win New Hampshire.
How can polling be so wrong!
We suspect the following factors played a role:
1. Polls in the closing days of the campaign had high margins of error; some with 5%.
2. A number of polling firms were releasing tracing polls; one or two days of results that can often be highly misleading.
3. In New Hampshire, Independent voters could cast a ballot in either Party’s race. It is unclear, at least to TPJ, that polling actually detects which Party Independents will actually participate in.
Isn’t it wonderful; elections still retain their mystery.
THE ONLY WAY
On blogger at Common Sense “gets it:”
The first thing that stands out to me is the fact that the Republicans in the congress are willing to take the heat for obstructing popular legislation, even when they have an unpopular lame duck president of their own party who could veto it and let them off the hook. Normally politicians, survivalists that they are, would be trying to distance themselves from a 30% president by this time and he would be forced out there on his own. But here you have them racing over the cliff right along side him. That they have maintained such solidarity in the face of dramatic failure is quite impressive.
My suspicion is that they are banking on the media failing to properly inform the public about what is going on (and which I discuss in more depth here.) From the looks of things, that's been a pretty smart strategy. The public certainly holds the congressional Republicans in contempt, as you might expect after seven years of rubber stamping this failed presidency, but they are equally contemptuous of the Democrats for failing to turn things around when they took the reins. The Republicans apparently surmised that they could make the public see it as a wash.
The GOP presidential candidates have pretty much followed the same path. While it's certainly true that they are running for the support of their party's base at the moment, with a president at 30% you would think that they would at least be leaving themselves some daylight for the general election. But so far they are all running proudly as successors to a man whose fall from grace has been one of the most dramatic drops in presidential history.
If one assumes that we are dealing with a party and a political movement that operates as the constitution expected politicians to operate, this would all be very odd. But they aren't. The modern Republican party has somehow managed to create movement loyalty that supersedes not only the national interest but their own political self-interest.
And that's probably where money comes in. In a system where people are aware that historical narratives are being written to spec and where they are rarely held accountable for past political misdeeds, there is little downside to putting party before country or even before your own public career. There is no such thing as disgrace, and if you lose an election, when you leave office you immediately become a well paid director or executive of various firms you used to regulate, a television commentator or "motivational speaker" and just wait a bit before becoming a high priced lobbyist. There are not only second acts in conservative politics, there are third and fourth acts, well paid and guaranteed.
This is true to some extent in the Democratic Party as well, but the conservative movement is a much more organic, full service organization that offers cradle to grave welfare for loyal soldiers at all levels (and a lonely wilderness for apostates.) They don't fear losing. As individuals, they stand to benefit handsomely from their association with the Business Party and no matter what happens they remain comfortably ensconced in the vast array of conservative organizations and affiliations that have been created over the past 30 years.
The conservative movement is built to last --- even when it suffers electorally, the individuals within it pay no price, and the movement itself is reinforced. They believe, with good reason, that they have a solid minority at least that will always vote for them and whose regional and political prejudices they will always represent well. They know they will win the presidency as often as not. They are very good at political campaigning and manipulating the media.
Their movement is sustained by wealthy individuals and business interests who will make sure they have an endless supply of money. So while Karl Rove may have had the personal ambition to create a permanent majority, it really isn't necessary. They have no need to govern well or in the interests of the people. Those they really serve are as easily served from the minority as the majority, especially now that more than a decade of GOP governance set the baseline. (Will the obstructionist Senate minority ever pass a tax hike?)
The founders worried a lot about the power of political parties or factions. In Federalist 10, Madison defines a faction as "a number of citizens, whether amounting to a minority or majority of the whole, who are united and actuated by some common impulse of passion, or of interest, adverse to the rights of other citizens, or to the permanent and aggregate interests of the community."
Ironically the major concern was that the rubes would use the power of faction to take away the property of the Big Money Boyz. Obviously, he needn't have worried. When it comes to common impulse and passion, nobody has it over the conservative movement in service of its wealthy benefactors.
Message to Americans; elect Democrats.
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UPDATED: JAN 6, 2008WHO SAID?
Who said (answer at end)?
"I see in the near future a crisis approaching that unnerves me and causes me to tremble for the safety of my country. . . . corporations have been enthroned and an era of corruption in high places will follow, and the money power of the country will endeavor to prolong its reign by working upon the prejudices of the people until all wealth is aggregated in a few hands and the Republic is destroyed."
We hope that TPJ readers will take a moment to read today’s article in JOBS/DEPRESSION, appearing in TPJ’S BUSH WATCH.
The Iowa caucuses demonstrate the fault lines that are developing within the Republican Party:
They were called Reagan Democrats and then "values voters." They were the police and firefighters President Bush credited with his 2004 reelection. And in this week's Iowa caucuses, they were the dominant constituency in the Republican Party.
For decades, Republicans sought to reach beyond their traditional base of business-oriented, upper-income voters by wooing blue-collar voters through social issues and appeals to patriotism. But Thursday in Iowa, working-class Republicans flexed their muscles, sending former governor Mike Huckabee of Arkansas to a clear victory over businessman Mitt Romney - and leaving some upper-income conservatives to wonder whether they are in control of their party anymore.
Like Romney, Huckabee emphasizes faith and family values, but he also focuses more on the need for government to help lower-income Americans than on the traditional Republican antitax message, which concerns mainstream Republicans. "I'd like to know what his economic message is - he throws out phrases suggesting he's against free trade and supports more government regulation. Those are not views that most Republicans share," said Frank Donatelli, the former White House political director under President Reagan, who this year is supporting Senator John McCain of Arizona.
But the demographic dynamic between the parties has changed since the Reagan years. As more lower-income voters have joined the traditional Republican Party of business, Democrats have gotten richer: A Pew Research Center survey of prospective presidential matchups earlier this year showed voters earning more than $100,000 a year about evenly split between the parties.
Perhaps as a result, some Democrats have adopted traditional GOP themes like fiscal restraint, while Republicans such as Huckabee advocate a larger government role in healthcare and education. And, like many Democrats, Huckabee accuses his primary opponents of being too friendly to the rich.
"In looking for a presidential candidate, people want someone who looks more like the guy they work with than the guy who laid them off," Huckabee quipped, referring to Romney, a former business consultant who earned his fortune in part by making companies more efficient.
In past Republican eras, that line wouldn't have won many votes; but this year in Iowa, with its relatively large population of Christian conservatives and working-class Republicans, it went over well. "Since the late '80s and early '90s, white evangelicals have grown as a Republican constituency, and its brought more lower-income voters into the Republican Party," said Andrew Kohut, director of the Pew Research Center. "What's becoming clear now is the divide between social and economic conservatives."
Kohut described Huckabee's voters as "big-government conservatives." And the party's success in broadening its base to include them may now threaten its unity around a small-government message. Surveys of voters entering Thursday's caucuses indicate that Huckabee drew disproportionate support from voters on the lower economic rungs. He beat Romney by 16 points among people earning less than $50,000 per year. He edged Romney by just four points among those earning more than $50,000.
Democrats have real opportunities here. A “bread and butter” economic agenda has the probability of attracting not only new voters, but to break the blue collar workers that the Party has lost.
Will Democrats make the pitch?
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Abraham Lincoln – 1864.
FAIR WIND
In the excitement of the Iowa caucus results, a special election for one State Senate seat in Minnesota went largely ignored. Democrats picked off another Republican seat. For Democrats in Minnesota is means that they have a veto proof State Senate, an important fact given that the Governor is Republican.
Another tiny sign that Democrats may have fair winds in 2008!
Last Update: 02/03/2008