UPDATED:  FEB 26, 2008

                        REPEAT PLEASE 

Story lines like these continue to appear across America: 

Voter turnout for this presidential primary has been enormous on both sides, but the Democratic contest shows turnout that was previously unimaginable. As the graph shows, Democratic caucuses and primaries have seen far greater voter participation, with turnout dwarfing Republican turnout in the 10 most highly attended contests. This difference amounts to a severe motivation gap, which might prove difficult for Republicans to overcome. A recent Gallup poll showcased this motivation gap, with six out of 10 respondents saying that both Obama and Clinton were better than most presidential candidates during their lifetimes. In contrast, most Republicans viewed John McCain as neither better nor worse than prior candidates, and barely half of the party's supporters said they would be satisfied if he won the party's presidential nomination. A depressed turnout on the Republican side could be crucial for Democratic aspirations in congressional elections as well.

Larry Sabato, the Crystal Ball (a TPJ favorite) dispels the notion that turnout in the primaries has any correlation to the November election results.  Democrats should repeat Sabato’s warning below three times a day. 

Larry Sabato has published a study noting that Republican participation in their presidential primaries is also up.  Additionally, Sabato notes that increased participation by one Party in its primaries does not correlate to electoral success.  His findings: 

Already turnout records (measured here in terms of actual votes cast) have been smashed in Iowa and New Hampshire, most spectacularly by the Democrats but also by the Republicans as well. And it is likely that the all-time high for a primary season of 35 million votes cast, set back in 1988, will be surpassed this year by millions and millions of votes.  . . .

While the huge turnouts would appear to be a big plus for the Democrats, they may not necessarily be a favorable harbinger for the party in November. The nationwide primary record for the Democrats of 23 million votes was set in 1988, a year the party went on to lose the presidential race. The primary record for the Republicans of 17.2 million votes was set in 2000, a year the GOP went on to win the White House (albeit narrowly).

In short, when it comes to presidential primaries, high voter involvement can have either a positive or a negative connotation depending on the tenor of the party's nominating campaign.

The Democrats in particular have had a number of "negative" high turnouts, where friction between various wings of the party produced substantial voter interest but a badly scarred nominee with little chance of winning the general election.

The message is simple: Democrats should start organizing for November now and be prepared to go door to door.  That is the “enthusiasm” that wins elections.

                        ENDING

Bush has less than a year in office and his public approval remains mired in the lower 30% range.  The chart immediately below portrays approval, disapproval and undecided citizens since January 2005.  The picture is self-explanatory; Bush is holding most of his Republican base and not much else.  This pattern has held true since Summer ’07 and it looks unlikely to change before Bush leaves office as one of the most unpopular Presidents in modern American history.                          

Two polls were released since our previous report; USA Today/Gallup and CBS/New York Times. Both polls have Bush’s approval rating below 33%.  These polls suggest that the Diageo/Hotline poll, 39% approval, is an “outlier.”  Without the Diageo poll, Bush’s average approval rating would be just above 31%, approaching Bush’s all time lows and clearly down from the 33% range in which Bush’s approval rating has been stuck.  Five to six additional polls should clarify the situation further.

We believe Bush’s approval rating is important from two perspectives:

1.   The lower the rating the less help Bush can be to Republican candidates this Fall.  Bush will not be appearing with many Republican candidates under any circumstances; we refer to Bush’s ability to raise funds for Republican candidates and the Republican Party.  At 31%, Bush is clearly losing Republican base support – making him less effective as a fundraiser.
 

2.   Sen. McCain has clearly tied himself to Bush and Bush’s policies, especially Iraq.   The less popular Bush, we believe it makes it harder for McCain to garner support.   Simply stated, if you asked Americans if you would like another four years of Bush, the answer of most citizens would be no.  If Americans tie McCain to Bush, Bush may be the stone that drowns both men.