UPDATED: FEB 14, 2008
CARVILLE
James Carville’s analysis of the Democratic Presidential primary is short, sweet and correct:
No less an authority than James Carville said today that if Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton loses either of the two big primaries on March 4, "this thing is done."
That "thing" -- or maybe thang in Carville's Cajun speak -- would be the race for the Democratic presidential nomination.
The Buzz, a blog produced by the Orlando Sentinel, says Carville made that pronouncement during a trade show appearance with his wife Mary Matalin. He, of course, is the Democratic strategist and CNN pundit who gained fame with his "it's the economy stupid" formula for Bill Clinton in 1992. She's a Republican strategist and TV pundit as well.
Earlier today, Sen. Clinton's top political strategist -- Mark Penn -- released this memo in which he makes the case the former first lady will win the primaries in Ohio, Texas and then in Pennsylvania on April 22.
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UPDATED: FEB 10, 2008PSYCHEDELIC PSYCHOSIS
SHERYL GAY STOLBERG of the New York Times authors a review of the faltering economy that is reminiscent of a bad 1960’s psychedelic experience. In reviewing the faltering economy, Stolberg inexplicably asserts:
Mr. Bush has spent years presiding over an economic climate of growth that would be the envy of most presidents. Yet much to the consternation of his political advisers, he has had trouble getting credit for it, in large part because Americans were consumed by the war in Iraq.
Dean Baker, co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research in Washington, DC, destroys Stolberg’s false assertion (emphasis added):
Here the ranking of the presidential terms since 1960 by average annual GDP growth:
Kennedy-Johnson -- 5.2%
Clinton -- 3.6%
Reagan -- 3.4%
Carter -- 3.4%
Nixon-Ford -- 2.7%
Bush II --2.6%
Bush I --1.9%
President Bush's growth record is better than his father's, but it is worse than the record of every other president in the last half century. It's not clear why they would be envious. It is also not clear what his political advisers have to complain about.
Stolberg’s opening break from economic reality is dwarfed by her subsequent assertion (emphasis added):
From a strictly economic perspective, it is difficult to blame Mr. Bush for the current crisis. Even some economists who have been critical of the president, like Bruce Bartlett, who worked in the Reagan and first Bush administrations, say he cannot be held liable for the burst of the housing bubble or problems in credit markets.
The assertion is simply incredulous. The housing “bubble” triggering the current recession was created by Republican economic policy. Scores of reputable economists warned that a housing bubble was developing. But, Republican policy disdains economic regulation. Instead of putting a cap on the bubble, Republicans, true to their economic philosophy simply let the “free markets” reign; refusing to regulate the mortgage lenders to prevent the “bubble” from growing so large that it burst.
Democrats can expect that Republicans will be espousing Stolberg’s lines in the upcoming election. Rank and file Democrats need to have a conversation conveying the truth of what is happening to every friend and associate – every day.
BUSH’S LEGACY
Bush frequently brushes aside his historically low public approval ratings, entrusting history to more kindly judge his administration. It is fantasy, the strength of which mirrors the degree of this President’s failures.
Future generations of historians will be looking at these Bush “accomplishments” on which to record their judgments. (Print copies of the chart below and hand them to your friends and associates.)
|
THE ECONOMY |
JANUARY 20, 2001 |
UNDER BUSH |
|
Real GDP Growth1 |
4.09% Over Prior 8 Years |
2.65% Over Prior 7 Years |
|
National Debt2 |
$5.7 Trillion |
$9.2 Trillion |
|
Budget Deficit/Surplus3 |
$431 Billion Surplus over the Previous Three Budget Years |
$734 Billion Deficit over the Previous Three Budget Years |
|
New Private Sector Jobs Created4 |
1.76 Million Jobs Per Year Over Previous 8 Years |
369,000 Jobs Per Year Over Previous 7 Years |
|
Americans In Poverty 5 |
31.6 Million |
36.5 Million |
|
Quality Of Life |
JANUARY 20, 2001 |
UNDER BUSH |
|
Americans Uninsured & Change In Uninsured Level6 |
38 Million Uninsured 4.5 Million Less in 2 Years |
47 Million Uninsured 8.5 Million More in 6 Years |
|
Annual Total Premium Cost7 |
$6,230 for Family Premium |
$12,106 for Family Premium |
|
Median Household Income & Change In Median Income8 |
$49,163 $6,000 Increase in 8 Years |
$48,023 $1,100 Decrease in 6 Years |
|
Price Of Gas9 |
$1.39/Gallon |
$3.07/Gallon |
|
Cost Of College10 |
$3,164 per year |
$5,192 per year |
|
Personal Savings Rate11 |
+2.3% |
-0.5% |
|
Consumer Credit Debt12 |
$7.65 Trillion |
$12.8 Trillion |
|
United States & The World |
JANUARY 20, 2001 |
UNDER BUSH |
|
U.S. Trade Deficit13 |
$380 Billion |
$759 Billion |
|
Strength Of U.S. Dollar14 |
1.07 Euros per Dollar |
0.68 Euros Per Dollar |
|
Combat Readiness15 |
All Active Duty Army Divisions Were Rated At The Highest Readiness Levels |
Not A Single Active Duty Or Reserve Brigade In The U.S. Considered “Fully Combat Ready.” |
|
Foreign Oil Dependency16 |
52.75% of U.S. Liquid Fuel Consumption is Imported |
60.38% of U.S. Liquid Fuel Consumption is Imported |
|
Favorable View Of America Abroad17 PEW POLL OF TEN NATIONS |
58.3% Viewed America Favorably |
39.2% Viewed America Favorably |
|
Great Britain’s View Of U.S. |
83% Favorable |
56% Favorable |
|
Indonesia’s View Of U.S. |
75% Favorable |
30% Favorable |
|
Turkey’s View Of U.S. |
52% Favorable |
12% Favorable |
|
Germany’s View Of U.S. |
78% Favorable |
37% Favorable |
Americans already judge Bush as one of the worst Presidents in history. His current public approval ratings remain at historic lows and every indication is that Bush leave office as one of the most unpopular Presidents in modern history.
In 2007 Bush’s approval and disapproval ratings fluctuated during the year, but Bush started the year with an average approval rating of 33.89% and finished 2007 at 33.45%, unchanged. The same was true of the millions of Americans who disapprove Bush’s performance in office. He started the year at 61.61% and finished the year at 61.82%, unchanged.
2008 portends another downward shift. Bush starts 2008 losing even more public support. In January, Bush’s average approval rating fell -1.12% from his 2007 close. Two new polls in February have Bush losing another -1.33%, a total of -2.45% in just two months. Five to ten additional polls should provide more clarity on the direction, but if current trends hold true, Bush is losing his Republican base.
Bush may trust history – but Americans here and now have condemned this President to lows that not even revisionist historians may ever be able to erase.
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|
|
Approve |
Trail Mo |
Disapprove |
No Opinion |
Spread |
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2008 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
AP-Ipsos |
2/4-6/08 |
30 |
|
66 |
3 |
-36 |
|
|
CNN/Opinion Res |
2/1-3/08 |
32 |
|
67 |
1 |
-35 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
February Avg |
31.00 |
-1.33 |
66.50 |
2.00 |
-35.50 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
January Avg |
32.33 |
-1.12 |
63.13 |
4.47 |
-30.80 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2007 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
December Avg |
33.45 |
0.85 |
61.82 |
4.45 |
-28.36 |
|
|
|
November Avg |
32.60 |
-0.50 |
61.81 |
5.59 |
-29.21 |
|
|
|
October Avg |
33.10 |
-0.07 |
60.90 |
5.90 |
-27.80 |
|
|
|
September Avg |
33.17 |
1.17 |
61.75 |
5.17 |
-28.58 |
|
|
|
August Avg |
32.00 |
1.58 |
61.67 |
6.33 |
-29.33 |
|
|
|
July Avg |
30.42 |
-0.43 |
63.50 |
6.08 |
-33.08 |
|
|
|
June Avg |
30.85 |
-2.38 |
63.23 |
6.00 |
-32.38 |
|
|
|
May Avg |
33.22 |
-1.70 |
61.33 |
5.56 |
-28.11 |
|
|
|
April Avg |
34.92 |
1.49 |
59.92 |
5.15 |
-25.00 |
|
|
|
March Avg |
33.43 |
-0.24 |
60.43 |
6.14 |
-27.00 |
|
|
|
February Avg |
33.67 |
-0.22 |
60.17 |
6.08 |
-26.50 |
|
|
|
January Avg |
33.89 |
-1.61 |
61.61 |
4.83 |
-27.70 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
2006 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
December Avg |
35.50 |
-0.93 |
59.25 |
5.42 |
-23.75 |
|