UPDATED:  FEB 10, 2008 

LETTERS FROM THE U.K. (12) 

HOW THE U.S PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN LOOKS FROM HERE 

It is difficult to recall any US Presidential election campaign that has attracted so much attention in Britain as the present one. There is a widespread perception that the outcome is a matter of world importance. The British political scene seems very dull by comparison. There is little sense here that the next British general election, whenever it takes place, is likely to grip the public imagination. I have argued in these columns that the differences between the two main parties here are minimal and this has led to a widespread ennui about politics. The only electoral campaign that is likely to generate any drama here is the forthcoming contest for the election of London’s mayor and that is likely to be extremely dirt and very bitter. More on that later. 

The media here is full of the U.S. campaign. Partly perhaps, this is because the stakes seem so high and the two main candidates, on the Democratic side at least, have aroused such enthusiasms and passions. Even those who normally take little interest in U.S. politics have become gripped by the drama, comparing the candidates with the lack-lustre personalities of our own political leaders. Barack Obama’s autobiography is selling well here and it is not uncommon to see people reading it on their way to work on the London underground. The interest here has much to do with the sense that the appalling Bush presidency is coming to an end and that real change is in the air. It is difficult to overestimate how loathed Bush has been in Britain. Those of us who followed the 2000 and 2004 campaigns have never forgotten that the presidency was stolen in 2000 and that therefore Bush lacked real legitimacy throughout the whole of his first term. We had high hopes of Kerry in 2004 and were nonplussed and dismayed that Bush was elected. In less well-informed circles the past eight years have fed a narrow-minded anti-Americanism. Serious comment (and much that is not so serious) is pretty much pro-Democrat. Clinton and Obama have received far more media attention than any of the Republican candidates. It is tempting to assume that, whichever candidate wins the Democratic nomination, the outcome in November is a foregone conclusion. The next president will be a Democrat. The word on everyone’s lips is “change” and, it is widely assumed, change means a Democrat in the White House. 

However, it seems to me very rash to assume that such an outcome can be taken for granted. Without wishing to seem overly pessimistic, I can see a real possibility that the Democratic apple cart could be overturned. I pretend no special knowledge of the U.S. electoral system, and I have very little knowledge of the demographic composition and political sentiments in many of the states yet to vote in the primaries, so any views I express are those of an interested amateur.  

It is clear now that John McCain will win the Republican nomination. It was a matter of some amusement a few days ago when the BBC reported that some prominent conservative Republicans detest McCain almost as much as they do Clinton and Obama. Apparently he is regarded as a liberal! This brand of conservatism is now almost unknown here. Indeed, in a recent poll of the opinions of leading members of the British Conservative Party, most seemed to favour either Clinton or Obama. David Cameron expressed his admiration for Obama.  The moderately left-leaning New Statesman reported this week that the “right wing clowns”, Rush Limbaugh and Ann Coulter are openly and viciously against McCain. Coulter, it seems, would rather vote for Clinton than McCain. It is more than thirty years since a prominent British Conservative expressed views comparable to this. Enoch Powell, the brilliant but eccentric right-winger advised the electorate in 1974 to vote Labour rather than Conservative in the (mistaken) belief that a Labour victory would keep Britain out of the European Common Market which he loathed. His advice is credited with helping to secure a Labour victory by the narrowest of margins. I find it difficult to believe that right-wing hostility to McCain will be sufficiently strong to swing conservative voters behind a Democratic candidate. 

The course of events between now and November might look like this. McCain wins the Republican nomination soon. He then sets about persuading his right-wing critics that he is no liberal. He also begins to sing the tune of “Change”. Bush will rarely, if ever be mentioned. He will play the “security” card for all it is worth. Assuming that he is able to continue to argue that the “surge” in Iraq is working, and that it is vital to keep U.S troops there to ensure that the country does not collapse completely, there is at least a chance that he may be able to keep Iraq neutralised as a crucial election issue. I think that Republicans will unite behind McCain. He will play to his strength as a Vietnam veteran and he will be projected as a “safe pair of hands”. There has been some talk of a “cultural shift” in the deep south which would benefit Obama. This is written before Louisiana holds its primary elections so it could well be that there is something in this. His performance in Alabama and Georgia, gives some cause for optimism. But, it seems to me quite likely that deep rooted conservative attitudes in the southern states could win out when the choice in November is between a white male and either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama. 

Then there is another factor that cannot be ignored. The Republicans will have a candidate behind whom they can unite soon. The contest between Clinton and Obama will likely run throughout the summer and could become increasingly acrimonious. Clinton’s campaign team seem to think that she is the best candidate to stand against McCain. I am not so sure. Leaving aside for the moment the question of policies – and, on this side of the Atlantic we have heard precious little about them from any of the candidates – it is pretty clear that Hillary Clinton is a very divisive figure amongst the wider electorate. It is not only that she is a woman – though one should never underestimate the strength of anti-feminism and misogyny amongst traditionalists, both men and women – but a woman coming with the heavy baggage from the past as Bill Clinton’s wife. The impression I get is that all those who loathed Bill Clinton, loathe Hillary even more. My gut feeling is that, should she win the nomination, she is unlikely to win against McCain. I hope I am wrong about this. 

Turning to Obama, he has built up an astonishing head of steam and it is quite possible that he could achieve the 2,025 delegates he needs to win the Democratic nomination. On the basis of the little I know about him I would say that against McCain he is in with a good chance. But there are things about him that I find puzzling. Although he has taken the majority of the African American vote in the primaries so far, he is, strictly speaking, not an African American. He seems to try to be all things to everyone, and maybe that is no bad thing. But the campaign is likely to get very ugly should he gain the Democratic nomination. Racism, overt and covert, is likely to be used against him. Indeed it has already been used. Claims about a need for change will not be enough to guarantee victory. One has also to take account of the ruthlessness of the Republican machine. Whoever the Democratic candidate may be, that person will be subjected to all the dirty tricks that can be mustered against them. I am not inclined to support conspiracy theories and I am not suggesting that a terrorist attack is likely to be manufactured during the final stages of the presidential election campaign. But, it is not beyond possibility that Al Qaeda or some other group might decide to commit an outrage either on U.S. soil or against U.S. interests abroad. Unlikely, but who knows. More likely is that the security alert could be ratcheted up at a crucial point to assist the Republicans. 

If all this seems unduly pessimistic, I apologize. I hope very much that things do not turn out like this. Perhaps we really are witnessing a sea change in the United States and that voters are about to sweep the decks clear of everything associated with the last disastrous eight years. There are some very promising signs that this may be so. 2009 will not be 1929, but as the clouds of recession grow darker on the horizon, it is perhaps not too fanciful to hope that we may be on the threshold of a “New Deal” for the American people comparable to that inaugurated by F.D.R. in 1932.  

Let’s hope so.