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3 - 9 Feb, 2008
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Next UPDATED: FEB 3, 2008 THE DIFFERENCE TPJ has written about Democratic voter registration to the point of distraction – for some. Failure of the NC Democratic Party to capitalize on public enthusiasm the Democratic Presidential primary is generating is important – very important. Quinnipiac Poll is one of America’s most highly respected polling firms. In their most recent analysis projecting that Hillary will weather Obama’s rise in the polls on Super Tuesday, Maurice Carroll explained that the Obama campaign’s failure to attract new voters after New Hampshire explains Hillary’s subsequent successes, at least in part (emphasis added): One troubling sign for Obama in New York at least, there has been no surge of new voters signing up. Record numbers of young, first-time voters, made the difference for Obama in his victory in the Iowa caucus, and almost bought him a second victory in New Hampshire. Quinnipiac’s analysis is revealing from two perspectives. First, for Obama supporters, the difference between winning and losing in North Carolina could be voter registration. The voting patterns nationally to this stage of the election cycle strongly suggest that Hillary wins if Democrat “regulars” predominate in the May Primary. Obama’s path to victory most probably requires thousands of new voters and turnout of those voters. That does not appear to be occurring in North Carolina to a significant degree. Second, Sen. McCain will likely win the Republican nomination and will be highly favored in North Carolina against Hillary or Obama. Can Democrats win North Carolina? Democrats can win, but victory is unlikely unless there is a dramatic increase in new voters and a change in the demographics of voter turnout. The 2004 General Election is instructive in making the point. Young voters, age 18 to 24, voted in record numbers in 2004. However, registrations in this age group remain much lower than their proportion of the general population. Equally significant, turnout among younger voters who were registered was the lowest of any age group. Consider these facts: Young voters strongly increased their turnout percentage in last year's elections. The Census Bureau reported Americans aged 18 to 24 bumped their turnout rate from 36 percent in 2000 to 47 percent in 2004. No other age group increased its turnout by more than 5 percentage points. The youngest voters still have the lowest turnout rate, but David King of the Institute of Politics at Harvard University said the 11-percentage point improvement is big news. "When you vote young, you're much more likely to vote the rest of your life," King said. – NBC 17(emphasis added) Younger voters comprised only 14% of the total votes cast in North Carolina in 2004. Younger voters indeed came out in larger numbers, but other age groups voted in increasing numbers as well. Therefore, younger voters as a percent of all voters did not rise significantly. Younger voters supported Kerry over Bush (Kerry +16%). It was the ONLY age group Kerry won in North Carolina. Carefully note that Bush’s support among younger voters was 7% less than the support among that group in the 2000 General Election.
Kerry lost North Carolina in 2004: Bush, 1,961,166, Kerry, 1,525,849. In 2000, the results were not vastly different: Bush, 1,631,163, Gore, 1,257,692. Democrats will need to energize their existing base, including voter who participate sporadically, and convince independent voters to join with Democrats. Another important key to victory is voter registration. There are approximately 400,000 NC citizens 18-29 who are not registered among some 1,000,000 unregistered citizens. From November 2007 through January 2008, Democrats have added 9,368 new voters while Republicans have added 6,099. An organized effort will be required to achieve the result that Democrats require. WHY? TPJ received the following question from Jenny Edwards: Perhaps the Exc. meeting should start earlier. They have begun scheduling them in difficult places to attend (on purpose?) and many have three hour drives. The most ridiculous is the state convention to be held in New Bern. This of all meetings should be in the central location a fair drive for all. Many members are elderly and do not drive after dark. Having the most important meeting of four years in which Convention delegates are elected, at the far end of the state is simply unimaginable. WHY? The NC Democratic Party has been taking the Party “on the road.” Executive Committee meetings have been held in Hamlet and the Greensboro area for example. In our estimation, the State Party is trying to garner favorable public perception of the Party by bringing events to local areas throughout the State. The image is certainly one of a Party engaged in local communities. We have published Jenny’s questions in hopes that the State Party will provide a fuller explanation for all Democrats. NC FACTOIDS It is not a pretty picture. The US Census Bureau’s data from 2005 portrays harsh facts about North Carolina. Our State has the: 1. 13th highest level of poverty in the nation at 14.9% -- some 1.2 million. 2. 14th highest level of poverty in the nation for those under age 18 at 20.8% – some 438,000. 3. 13th highest level of poverty in the nation for those between ages 5 – 17 at 19.3% – some 287,000. 4. 16th highest level of poverty in the nation for those under age 5 at 23.3% -- some 139,000.
Last Update: 02/09/2008 |
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