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Next UPDATED: APR 24, 2008 TURNING BLUE TPJ’s formula for making North Carolina competitive in the ’08 Presidential election is relatively simple. Democrats must:
1. Drive
Democratic turnout in November to about 45% of all voters (Democrats
comprised only 39% of all voters in 2004 even though Democrats constituted
some 46% of all registered voters. Failure to turnout Democrats in 2004
accounted for 44% of Bush’s margin of victory.)
2. Improve
performance among Unaffiliated voters to 48% Democrat, 52% Republican
(Democrats lost Unaffiliated voters in 2004 by 44% Democrat, 56%
Republican.) 3. Reduce Democrat losses in Party “crossover” (16% of Democrats voted for Bush in 2004 while only 4% of Republicans voted for Sen. Kerry). In order to drive ’08 turnout to 45%, Democrats will need to increase new net voter registrations by some 200,000 and “wake up” some 200,000 “sleeping Democrats” who have not voted since 2000. (Realistically, some counties will perform better than others based on the strength or weaknesses of the local Party, but it is a relatively fair method of allocating targets and to measure performance.) The chart below allocates targets based upon each county’s share of Democrats as of January 2008. The number of newly registered voters is provided as of the Board of Elections latest report. The third column denotes the number of registrations still needed to meet each county’s goal. Finally, as quick reference tool to denote performance, the percentage of completion of each county’s goal is provided. At this stage of the election cycle, counties above 50% completion are performing strongly and can probably exceed their respective goals, counties between 30% and 50% completion will most likely meet targets and those performing below 30% may not meet targets. (The three groupings are color coded.) Statewide, Democrats are at 45% of target. With six months left for voter registrations, Democrats can meet the 200,000 needed. Where does your county stand in the effort to turn NC blue?
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