Them Dems

archived: 13 - 19 Apr, 2008         Back                 Next

UPDATED:  APR 13, 2008

                        SMARTER         

Democrats are finally moving to develop more technologically sophisticated methods of identifying potential supporters of the Party.  Party stalwart Harold Ickes has created Catalist: 

Catalist grew out of the embers of two groups that Mr. Ickes headed in the 2004 election, Americans Coming Together and the Media Fund, which, in part, conducted strong get-out-the-vote efforts. But when the Democrats failed to take the White House in 2004, wealthy donors believed that one reason they had failed was that Democrats lacked the sophisticated voter databanks of the Republican Party, its celebrated “voter vault” that can pinpoint likely supporters. . . .  

 Catalist is actually just one piece in a larger, and interlocking, network of independent liberal organizations that are acting almost as a shadow Democratic National Committee, now that the party itself can no longer accept unlimited large soft money donations. While these independent groups cannot communicate with the Democratic Party on strategy, they provide yet another way of getting the party’s message out, even if not in the words of the party.  

Its clients include groups like MoveOn.Org, the N.A.A.C.P., the Sierra Club, Emily’s List, Naral Pro-Choice America and the National Education Association, along with the service employees union and the A.F.L.-C.I.O. All those groups were involved with Americans Coming Together in 2004 and are planning even bigger get-out-the-vote campaigns this year. Catalist does not do business with Republican-aligned groups. 

Helping these groups coordinate their efforts — and to prevent them from bumping into one another — is a group called America Votes, which maintains close ties with Catalist. Until recently, America Votes, which has raised $18 million, shared office space with Catalist. Not only is it a Catalist client, but its mission is to help Catalist clients use the data they have bought to develop on-the-ground strategies in 19 crucial states.  

And, standing in the background, but still linked to this effort, is a new group called Fund for America, which is solely a money-raising vehicle, somewhat like a foundation. Fund for America got off the ground late last year with donations of $2.5 million each from Mr. Soros and the service employees union. Since then, Fund for America has given America Votes $1 million for its work in helping Catalist clients. Both groups are tax-exempt organizations that can take nearly unlimited contributions and have limited oversight.

Democrats are getting smarter.

                        STRUGGLING 

At the same time that Democrats are moving to improve their performance on the ground, the Republican right is struggling.  Freedom Watch was formed to promote conservative policies and heralded as “the” new conservative organization in the field.  It may not survive.  

 The conservative group Freedom’s Watch, headlined by two former senior White House officials, had been expected to be a deep-pocketed juggernaut in this year’s presidential election, heralded by supporters on the right as an aggressive counterweight to MoveOn.org, George Soros and the like. 

Bradley A. Blakeman resigned last month as president of Freedom’s Watch, which came onto the political scene last summer saying it would promote Republican issues but has lost steam since.  

But after a splashy debut last summer, in which it spent $15 million in a nationwide advertising blitz supporting President Bush’s troop escalation in Iraq, the group has been mostly quiet, beset by internal problems that have paralyzed it and raised questions about what kind of role, if any, it will actually play this fall.  

The group was conspicuously absent this week as Gen. David H. Petraeus, the United States commander in Iraq, returned to Congress to testify. Moreover, the troubles at Freedom’s Watch come as some Democratic-aligned groups are seeking to take the offensive, with one group, Progressive Media USA, planning to raise $40 million to spend on advertisements and other efforts to undermine Senator John McCain of Arizona, the presumptive Republican nominee. . . .  

Backers of Freedom’s Watch once talked about spending some $200 million, a figure that officials now say was exaggerated. Lending to the aura of ambition, the organization moved into a state-of-the-art 10,000-square-foot office in Washington and hired a staff of about 20, with talk of bringing in scores more for a vigorous campaign to promote conservative issues.  

Behind the scenes, however, Freedom’s Watch has been plagued by gridlock and infighting, leaving it struggling for direction, according to several Republican operatives familiar with the organization who were granted anonymity so they could be candid about the group’s problems.  

Although the organization was founded by a coterie of prominent conservative donors last year, the roughly $30 million the group has spent so far has come almost entirely from the casino mogul Sheldon G. Adelson, the chairman and chief executive of the Sands Corporation, who was recently listed as the third-richest person in the country by Forbes magazine.

At TPJ, we view Freedom Watch’s potential demise as another indication that the Republican right has factionalized.  Good news for Democrats. 

                        THE DROP

Three polls in April are in accord; Bush’s approval rating falls to 28%, a new low; his disapproval ratings average 63.33%, a new high; and the spread between his approval and disapproval rating averages 38.33%, a new high.  The drop of -4.56% to date in April is the largest that TPJ’s averages have recorded. 

Republicans have now clearly lost a potential asset in the 2008 General Election, a sitting President that can campaign for their Party’s nominee in the 2008 battleground States.  Bush’s role will be likely be limited to calling loyal Republican donors and extorting the Party’s faithful. Even this limited role may be difficult.  According to Gallup, Bush’s support among Republicans has fallen to new lows as well:

It appears that Bush will leave office in January 2009 as one of the most unpopular Presidents in American history – a distinction he has earned.

________

TPJ'S BUSH WATCH

 

 

Approve

Trail Mo

Disapprove

No Opinion

Spread

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2008

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gallup

4/6/-9/08

28

 

67

5

-39

AP-Ipsos

4/7-9/08

28

 

68

4

-40

CBS/New York Times

3/28 - 4/2/08

28

 

64

8

-36

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

April Avg

28.00

-4.56

66.33

5.67

-38.33

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

March Avg

30.90

-1.66

63.60

5.30

-32.70

 

February Avg

32.56

0.22

62.56

4.67

-30.00

 

January Avg

32.33

-1.12

63.13

4.47

-30.80

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2007

 

 

 

 

 

 

December Avg

33.45

0.85

61.82

4.45

-28.36

 

November Avg

32.60

-0.50

61.81

5.59

-29.21

 

October Avg

33.10

-0.07

60.90

5.90

-27.80

 

September Avg

33.17

1.17

61.75

5.17

-28.58

 

August Avg

32.00

1.58

61.67

6.33

-29.33

 

July Avg

30.42

-0.43

63.50

6.08

-33.08

 

June Avg

30.85

-2.38

63.23

6.00

-32.38

 

May Avg

33.22

-1.70

61.33

5.56

-28.11

 

April Avg

34.92

1.49

59.92

5.15

-25.00

 

March Avg

33.43

-0.24

60.43

6.14

-27.00

 

February Avg

33.67

-0.22

60.17

6.08

-26.50

 

January Avg

33.89

-1.61

61.61

4.83

-27.70

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2006

 

 

 

 

 

 

December Avg

35.50

-0.93

59.25

5.42

-23.75

 

November Avg

36.43

-1.07

58.00

5.50

-21.57

 

October Avg

37.50

-3.42

57.11

5.36

-19.61

 

September Avg

40.92

2.64

54.23

4.77

-13.31

 

August Avg

38.29

0.59

57.14

4.64

-18.86

 

July Avg

37.70

0.49

56.40

5.90

-18.70