Tarheel Dems

archived: 13 - 19 Apr, 2008         Back                 Next

UPDATED:  APR 13, 2008

                        TURNING NC BLUE  

TPJ has produced a Microsoft Power Point Presentation, “Turning NC Blue: 1+1+1= Victory.”  It is a Power Point presentation with sound. 

The presentation makes the case that the ultimate Democratic Party presidential nominee can win North Carolina in 2008.  Understanding why Democrats lost the 2004 election in NC lays the foundation to project how Democrats can win North Carolina in 2008.  Turning NC Blue lays out a simple plan to meet the challenges of obtaining that goal.  At TPJ, we believe it is as simple and as challenging as 1+1+1. 

If you want to see this presentation there are several options.  They are: 

Option 1:   

1.   Click on this hyperlink:  http://www.melloweb.com/VOTE/NC_blue_plan.ppt 

2.   You can view the presentation immediately by clicking “OPEN” when the dialog box appears.  The program takes about two minutes to load if you are using a broadband Internet connection and longer if you are using a modem. 

3.   The presentation will automatically open.  Click “Side Show” in the top ribbon. 

4.   Then click “From Beginning” on the left side of the top ribbon. The presentation will play.

Option 2:

1.       Click on this hyperlink:  http://www.melloweb.com/VOTE/NC_blue_plan.ppt 

2.       You can view the presentation by clicking “SAVE,” and then designating where on your computer you would like to save the program. 

3.       Play the presentation by clicking the icon on your computer: NC_blue_presentation. 

4.       The program will automatically open.  Click “Side Show” in the top ribbon. 

5.       Then click “From Beginning” on the left side of the top ribbon. The presentation will play. 

Option 3: 

1.       You can see the slides individually (in Flash player) by clicking on this hyperlink: 

http://www.melloweb.com/VOTE/NC_blue_plan.swf 

2.       The slides open almost instantly over a broadband connection and can be viewed individually.  

As with all TPJ material, TPJ is not subject to copyright.  Anyone is welcome to freely use materials from TPJ.  In reproducing or using material from the TPJ proper attribution is appreciated.   

TPJ can tailor Turning NC Blue: 1+1+1 specifically for your county; providing data as to registered, voters, target groups of unregistered voters and identifying potential “sleeping Democrats.”  If you would like a presentation tailored for your county, just provide your name and mailing address by using TPJ’s Feedback button on the left side of this page.  Production will be on a first come, first served basis.  

As always with TPJ, the service is FREE. 

We hope you will enjoy Turning NC Blue: 1+1+1=Victory and will recommend it to all of your friends and associates.  We also welcome feedback after your view the presentation and all suggestions for improving the presentation.

DEBATE

Facing South authors an article asserting that North Carolina Democratic Party leaders are favoring Sen. Clinton by calling for a debate in this State between the two Democratic Party contestants.  Sen. Clinton has agreed to a North Carolina debate, but Sen. Obama has not committed as of the writing of this article. The article is replete with an account of the “inside baseball” political machinations of all the principals.  

Facing South concludes: 

Clinton's spin, aided by the N.C. party, seems to be working. The N&O is now reporting on the "April Madness" surrounding the April 27 debate, with Meek stating that party headquarters is "getting deluged with phone calls and e-mails from North Carolinians" wanting to attend.

Together, Clinton and North Carolina party leaders have succeeded in painting Obama into a corner. He has no choice but to say "yes, I can" to attending Clinton's April 27 debate, or else he'll be called out as snubbing the state.

But given that Democrats in North Carolina overwhelmingly support Obama -- and that the Party is prohibited by its own rules from taking sides -- the whole episode gives the state's rank-and-file Democrats a right to ask of their leaders: Who do you represent, and which side are you on?

Answers to the author’s questions are simple.   

Whose interests do State Party leaders represent?  The short answer is that Party leaders are representing the interests of North Carolina Democrats on multiple levels.  First, the candidates are debating in Pennsylvania and Democrats in North Carolina, who have not experienced a real primary in modern history, feel they are no less deserving of the prestige of a televised debate.  Second, a North Carolina debate will energize Democrats across the State, greatly needed energy and participation by the rank and file.  Facing South’s own article notes that the Party is being “deluged with phone calls and emails.”  Third, the debate makes money for the Party.

                        EYE POPPING            

Democrats enjoyed another week of successful voter registration – in fact, eye popping.

The numbers through April 12, 2008:

County

Dem 1/08

Rep 1/08

UNA 1/08

Dem 4/15/08

Rep 4/12/08

UNA 4/12/08

Dem Change 1/08 to 4/12/08

Repub Change 1/08 to 4/12/08

UNA 1/08 to 4/12/08

Totals

2,520,247

1,925,132

1,172,351

2577896

1934685

1221181

57649

9553

48830

% Totals

44.86%

34.27%

20.87%

44.96%

33.74%

21.30%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly  Increase

12,016

-207

7,283

The highlights: 

1.       12,016 new, net, Democratic registrations in one week is the largest week in 2008.  The ratio of Democratic registrations is now some 6 to 1.  

2.       Republicans actually lost -207 net registrations, a first.  Republican registrations remain under 10,000. 

3.       Democratic registrations have outpaced Unaffiliated registrations for four consecutive weeks.  

4.       For the week, 62.94% of net registrations were Democratic, -1.08% Republican and 38.15% Unaffiliated.  

5.       For the year, 49.68% of net registrations are Democratic, 8.23% Republican and 42.08% Unaffiliated.  

Observations:  

1.       The open registration period has closed and Same Day Voter Registration (SDVR) begins with early voting.   SDVR is being employed for the first time in North Carolina and its effectiveness will be closely watched. 

2.       Democratic registrations are on the threshold of crossing above 45%, a positive development after years of declining voter registration percentages into the 44% range. 

3.       If Democrats can keep new registrations at current levels during SDVR and after the Democratic Party primary, Democratic percentage of all registrations could rise to 46% and Republicans could fall to 34%, reversing trends of over some 20 years. 

4.       Democrats need to register some 200,000 new voters in North Carolina before the General Election.  IF the current pace holds through the year, Democrats can achieve this milestone to making North Carolina competitive.  

Readers can check their county’s performance from this chart: 

TPJ'S NORTH CAROLINA VOTER REGISTRATION CHART: 2008                                                                                  *See notes at end of chart                                                                                                                                                                                           

County

Dem 1/08

Rep 1/08

UNA 1/08

Dem 4/12/08

Rep 4/12/08

UNA 4/12/08

Dem Change 1/08 to 1/12/08

Repub Change 1/08 to 4/12/08

UNA 1/08 to 4/12/08

 

ALAMANCE

36341

29205

15181

37053

29365

15638

712

160

457

ALEXANDER

8284

10473

4209

8383

10496

4401

99

23

192

ALLEGHANY

3477

2185

1042

3533

2225

1169

56

40

127

ANSON

11094

2131

1664

11294

2160

1714

200

29

50

ASHE

7465

8588

3672

7515

8587

3774

50

-1

102

AVERY

1688

7878

2442

1706

7908

2571

18

30

129

BEAUFORT

15742

9332

4731

15726

9343

4978

-16

11

247

BERTIE

10974

1333

1069

11031

1345

1125

57

12

56

BLADEN

14556

2822

2943

14730

2846

3118

174

24

175

BRUNSWICK

26535

25762

15341

26872

26064

15922

337

302

581

BUNCOMBE

70220

49100

40669

71906

49172

42065

1686

72

1396

BURKE

22449

20227

11843

22628

20212

12202

179

-15

359

CABARRUS

34327

41608

20723

35591

41846

21872

1264

238

1149

CALDWELL

17472

23569

9280

17747

23644

9661

275

75

381

CAMDEN

3102

1731

1769

3111

1754

1862

9

23

93

CARTERET

15203

18712

10688

15407

18697

11077

204

-15

389

CASWELL

9024

2961

2191

9136

2990

2299

112

29

108

CATAWBA

30260

45435

21459

30886

45598

22337

626

163

878

CHATHAM

19014