UPDATED:  APR 3, 2008

                        RATING THE HOUSE 

The Cook Political Report rates the US House races.  Cook finds that 80 House seats are generally in play; 44 Republican districts and 36 Democratic districts.   

Cook rates 2 Democratic (highlighted in blue) seats and 11 Republican seats (highlighted in red) as toss ups.  They are:                

OR-05 OPEN (Hooley) D+1
AL-05 OPEN (Cramer) R+6
AZ-01 OPEN (Renzi) R+2
LA-06 VACANT (Baker) R+7
MN-03 OPEN (Ramstad) R+1
NJ-03 OPEN (Saxton) D+3
NJ-07 OPEN (Ferguson) R+1
NM-01 OPEN (Wilson) D+2
NY-25 OPEN (Walsh) D+3
NY-26 OPEN (Reynolds) R+3
OH-15 OPEN (Pryce) R+1
OH-16 OPEN (Regula) R+4
VA-11 OPEN (Davis) R+1     

Cook rates 15 Democratic seats has leaning Democratic (highlighted in blue) and one Republican seat leaning Democratic (highlighted in red and underlined).  They are: 

AZ-05 Harry Mitchell R+4
AZ-08 Gabrielle Giffords R+1
CA-11 Jerry McNerney R+3
FL-16 Tim Mahoney R+2
GA-08 Jim Marshall R+8
IL-11 OPEN (Weller) R+1
IL-14 Bill Foster R+5
IN-09 Baron Hill R+7
KS-02 Nancy Boyda R+7
NH-01 Carol Shea-Porter D+0
NY-20 Kirsten Gillibrand R+3
PA-04 Jason Altmire R+3
PA-10 Chris Carney R+8
TX-22 Nick Lampson R+15
WI-08 Steve Kagen R+4  

Thirteen additional Republican seats are rated as leaning Republican (highlighted in red).  They are: 

AL-02 OPEN (Everett) R+13
AK-AL Don Young*# R+14
CO-04 Marilyn Musgrave R+9
CT--04 Christopher Shays D+5
IL-10 Mark Kirk D+4
LA-04 OPEN (McCrery) R+7
MI-07 Tim Walberg R+2
NV-03 Jon Porter D+1
NY-29 Randy Kuhl R+5
NC-08 Robin Hayes R+3
OH-01 Steve Chabot R+1
OH-02 Jean Schmidt R+13
WA-08 Dave Reichert D+2 

The toss up and lean districts will be, in Cook’s estimation, the most competitive in the United States.  Geographically, the competitive districts involve 27 States (first column) with only eight States having multiple districts in play (highlighted in blue, underlined): 

Cook has also identified 19 Democratic and 11 Republican districts that may also come into play.  Click here for a review of those seats.

In total, Cook envisions only one race, IL-11 OPEN (Weller) R+1, in which Democrats are favored to pick up a Republican seat.  The remaining highly competitive seats will be essentially be hard fought contests for the Democratic Party, both to defend vulnerable seats and pick up Republican seats.

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                        CONSIDER 

Sen. Obama supporters demand that Sen. Clinton quit.  Sen. Clinton promises to remain in the race.  Supporters of both candidates are spewing out hyperbolic attacks.  Many Democrats, including TPJ, are worried that the obvious split in the Democratic Party threatens victory for either candidate.   

Larry Sabato makes the case for why Sen. Clinton’s continuing candidacy is ultimately a benefit to Sen. Obama should he win the nomination.  His perspectives deserve serious consideration: 

                        RATING THE SENATE

TPJ has a great deal of respect for Cook Political Report.  They are generally guarded in their predictions and more often right than wrong.   

While the Democratic Presidential primary is “sucking all of the oxygen out of the room” in the press, Cook recently rated the US Senate races.  It presents a fascinating early assessment of the Democratic Party’s drive to win 60 seats (filibuster proof).  

Cook envisions: 

One Democratic seat is in jeopardy:  Landrieu (LA).
            One Republican seat will probably go Democratic: VA (Warner)
            Five Republican seats are Toss Ups: Stevens (AK), CO (Allard), Coleman (MN), Sununu (NH) and NM (Domenici)
            Two Republican seats bear watching: Collins (ME) and Smith (OR) 

Even if Sen. Landrieu holds her seat and Democrats win all eight Republican races; certainly not an assured result, Democrats will still not have the 60 seats they need as Sen. Lieberman is obviously an unreliable vote.  All of which points to the necessity of Democrats winning the Presidency in ’08.   

                        TESTING BOTTOM 

TPJ has been following the suspected deterioration of Bush’s approval rating.  In our last analysis, we thought two more polls were necessary to confirm the apparent trend – one new poll has just been released – Pew.  Pew pegs Bush’s approval rating at 28%, the second poll this month below 30%.   

Democrats should remain skeptical however.  Carefully note that of five polls (highlighted in blue) with Bush at 30% approval or less, four of those five polls find a rather high number of Americans with no opinion (highlighted in red).   Of the remaining polls with generally lower number of “no opinion,” Bush’s approval is a point or two higher. 

The shift from approval to no opinion is a phenomenon that previously occurred during Bush’s low point in Spring 2007.  There is a logical explanation that may explain the phenomenon.  At a 30% approval rating, Bush is starting to lose some of his Republican base.  One would expect that Republicans who have loyally supported Bush would a) only reluctantly withdraw their support and b) would be less inclined to express disapproval in contrast with simply withholding an opinion.  

Each new poll suggests the drop in “approval” rating is real.  However, TPJ does not generally believe a trend absent 10 polls confirming the trend.  One more poll is needed.  

IF the trend is real, Bush’s approval rating is threatening to break through the psychological barrier of 30%.  It will generate a plethora of articles about Bush being the most unpopular President in history – certainly not a selling point for the Republicans.