archived: 21 Oct - 3 Nov, 2007 Back Next
UPDATED: OCT 21, 2007
OK, NOW WHAT?
Progressive Democrats who have been critical of the Democratic Party’s perceived failures in ending Bush’s occupation in Iraq must now analyze the defeat of SCHIP.
1. SCHIP enjoyed the largest measure of bipartisan support of any major legislation since Democrats took control of Congress. Forty-three Republican House members voted to override Bush’s veto.
2. Every House Democrat, save two, voted to override Bush’s veto.
3. 154 Republican ideologues in the House voted to sustain the veto.
Democrats and a large number of non-partisan organizations mounted advertising campaigns in Republican Congressional Districts to pressure a switch in votes. The harsh reality:
Incredibly, despite polls showing strong majority support for a veto override, and an aggressive ad campaign targeting Republicans on SCHIP, the GOP was remarkably successful in holding the line and sustaining Bush's veto. Only forty-four Republicans voted for the bill -- almost exactly the same as last time, save for GOP Rep. Pete King, a bill supporter who was absent this time.
The lesson for Democrats is simple. There is no reasonable compromise with the radical Republicans controlling their Party. Republican ideology trumps all; even health care for children.
Public opinion has no impact on the Republican leadership. SCHIP enjoyed overwhelming public support. Conversely, Americans continue to heavily disapprove of Bush’s conduct of foreign policy in Iraq. The latest CBS poll demonstrates the point:
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CBS News Poll. Oct. 12-16, 2007. N=1,282 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3 (for all adults). |
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"Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling the situation with Iraq?" |
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Approve |
Disapprove |
Unsure |
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% |
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% |
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ALL adults |
26 |
67 |
7 |
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Republicans |
58 |
35 |
7 |
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Democrats |
8 |
89 |
3 |
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Independents |
18 |
72 |
10 |
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9/14-16/07 |
25 |
70 |
5 |
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Notably, even 35% of Republicans now disapprove of Bush’s performance.
The conclusion is obvious; Americans will see positive changes only when Republicans are thoroughly defeated.
SIGNS OF LIFE
Thirty-two special elections have been held across the United States during 2007 to fill US House and State legislative seats. With Tsongas’ victory in Massachusetts this past week, all special elections have been conducted.
Democrats have managed to gain four state legislative seats from Republicans, one in each of New York, Delaware, Florida and Maine. The pickups are highlighted in blue on the chart below. One independent won in Massachusetts, replacing a Democrat, but will caucus with Democrats. The Independent is highlighted in yellow below. Republicans gained no seats against Democrats.
Several observations are pertinent:
1. Of the 32 special elections, Republican incumbents held 11 seats. Democrats managed to gain four.
2. Democratic Party gains have largely been limited to the Northeast, where Republican fortunes have been on the decline in recent years.
3. Of the eight Republican held seats in the South, Democrats managed to wrest only one from Republicans. In Florida, four special elections in Republican seats netted the only Democratic Party gain.
It is always better to gain seats than lose seats; so Democrats have clearly been the “winners” in the 2007 special elections cycle from that perspective. However, the number and pattern of gains do not suggest a political tsunami against Republicans. The special election results suggest that Democrats still have a long way to go.
For those who are predicting the utter demise of the Republican Party; that belief represents excessive exuberance. Republicans are taking their “licks,” but there is nothing in the pattern of special elections below to suggest that the Republican Party has collapsed.
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Contest |
Special Election Date |
Incumbent Name & Party |
Result |
Winner |
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NY ** |
7th State Senate |
2/6/2007 |
Michael Balboni (R) |
53.5% v 46.5% |
Craig Johnson (D) |
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MS |
11th State House District |
2/27/2007 |
Leonard Morris (D) |
--- |
Joe Gardner (D) |
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FL |
3rd State House District |
2/27/2007 |
Holly Benson (R) |
55.5% v 44.5% |
CV Ford (R) |
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AL |
22nd State House District |
3/6/2007 |
Albert Hall (D) |
58% v 42% |
Butch Taylor (D) |
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TN ** |
30th State Senate District |
3/13/2007 |
Steve Cohen (D) |
56% v 43% |
Beverly Marrero (D) |
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92nd State House District |
3/13/2007 |
Henri Brooks (D) |
58% v 41% |
G.A. Hardaway (D) |
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NY |
16th State Assembly District |
3/27/2007 |
Thomas DiNapoli (D) |
86% v 14% |
Michele Schimel (D) |
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61st State Assembly District |
3/27/2007 |
John Lavelle (D) |
49% v 32% |
Mathew Titone (D) |
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62nd State Assembly District |
3/27/2007 |
Vincent Ignizio (R) |
70% v 30% |
Louis Tobacco (R) |
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LA |
94th State House District |
3/31/2007 |
Peppi Bruneau Sr. (R) |
60% v 40% |
Nick Lorusso (R) |
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4th State House District |
Cedric Glover (D) |
66% v34% |
Patrick Williams (D) |
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40th State House District |
Donald Cravins Jr. (D) |
59% v 41% |
Elbert Lee Guillory (D) |
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DE ** |
7th State House District |
4/14/2007 |
Wayne Smith (R) |
53% v 47% |
Bryon Short (D) |
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MA |
Worcester 14th State House District |
4/17/2007 |
James Leary (D) |
85% v 15% |
James O’Day (D) |
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Norfolk 11th State House District |
5/15/2007 |
Robert Coughlin (D) |
37.6% v 31.4% v 30.90% |
Paul McMurtry (I) |
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FL ** |
49th State House District |
4/24/2007 |
John Quinones (R) |
51.9% v 48.10% |
Darren Soto (D) |
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NY |
94th State Assembly District |
5/1/2007 |
Kenneth Zebrowski (D) |
75% v 25% |
Kenneth Zebrowski Jr. (D) |
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DE |
41st State House District |
5/5/2007 |
John Atkins (R) |
50% v 44% |
Greg Hastings (R) |
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CA |
39th State Assembly District |
5/15/2007 |
Richard Alarcon (D) |
50.86% v |
Felipe Fuentes (D) |
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20.07% |
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NH ** |
Hillsborough County 9th State House District |
5/29/2007 |
CeCe Hackett (D) |
58% v |
David Scannell (D) |
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42% |
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NY |
65th State Assembly District |
6/5/2007 |
Pete Grannis (D) |
64% v 36% |
Micah Kellner (D) |
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ME |
83rd State House District |
6/12/2007 |
Abigail Holman (R) |
59.5% v. 40.5% |
Dean Jones (D) |
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GA |
10th Congressional District |
6/19/2007 |
Charles Norwood (R) |
Not meaningful; 2 R’s in runoff |
Paul Brown (R) |
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GA |
24th State Senate District |
6/19/2007 |
Jim Whitehead (R) |
62% to 17% |
Bill Jackson (R) |
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SC |
46th State Senate District |
6/19/2007 |
Scott Richardson (R) |
78% v 16% |
Catherine Ceips -R |
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MA |
1st State Senate District |
6/26/2007 |
Robert Travaglini (D) |
5/30 primary |
Anthony Petruccelli (D) |
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59 to 41% |
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MO |
23rd State Senate District |
9/4/2007 |
Chuck Gross (R) |
56% to 44% |
Dempsey (R) |
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FL |
3rd State Senate District |
6/26/2007 |
Nancy Argenziano (R) |
Not meaningful” Rep. v Rep. |
Charlie Dean (R) |
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FL |
24th State House District |
6/26/2007 |
Dennis Baxley (R) |
59% to 38% |
Ron Schultz –(R) |
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NH |
Merrimack County 9th State House District |
7/10/2007 |
James Oliver (R) |
67% to 33% |
David Boutin (R) |
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TN |
89th State House District |
7/17/2007 |
Beverly Marrero (D) |
69% to 16% |
Jeanne Richardson (D) |
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MA |
5th Congressional District |
10/16/2007 |
Martin Meehan (D) |
52% to 45% |
Tsongas (D) |
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Last Update: 11/03/2007