UPDATED: OCT 17, 2007
GO FIGURE
Democrat Niki Tsongas defeated Republican Jim Ogonowski in the Massachusetts 5th Congressional District special election to replace former U.S. Rep. Martin Meehan, also a Democrat. While Tsongas held the seat for Democrats, her election exposed some weaknesses that should give Democrats everywhere pause for concern.
Tsongas did not outperform typical Democratic Party strength in the 5th District even though she had a significant advantage in fundraising. For example, Tsongas polled about 51% of the vote while Sen. Kerry won the District with 57% of the vote in his bid for the Presidency. Tsongas’ results were equal with the percentage vote that Democrat Gov. Deval Patrick garnered in 2006; 50.5%. Democrat Marty Meehan, who Tsongas will replace, first won the District in 1992 with 52% of the vote.
One number that should be of concern to every Democrat is the apparent fact that Ogonowski was strongly supported by voters under age 35.
Tsongas highlighted two major issues. She featured an ad (emphasis added) on the Iraqi occupation:
Although Ogonowski called the Iraq invasion a mistake and criticized Bush for the handling of the war, he wanted to keep troops there until a victory that he defined as a safe and secure Iraq. Tsongas ran one television ad that pictured Bush under the "Mission Accomplished" banner and another that said, "One vote can help end this war: Yours."
As would be expected, SCHIP was an issue for Tsoangas and was effective:
But the president's veto of a bill to expand healthcare for children didn't help his cause. Several voters said that children's healthcare followed the war as an issue that motivated them to go to the polls.
The State Children's Health Insurance Program, or S-CHIP, provides coverage to lower-income children whose families earn too much to qualify for Medicaid but can't afford private insurance; Congress recently passed a bipartisan bill to expand the program by raising the income threshold. Bush vetoed the bill Oct. 3, handing Tsongas an issue to use against Ogonowski, and she immediately pledged to vote to overturn that veto if elected. The House will consider the issue later this week.
Ogonowski said he supports expanding children's health insurance but opposed the S-CHIP bill as written, saying it might benefit children of illegal immigrants. But Ogonowski never said how he would vote on the veto.
Ogonowski countered by distancing himself from Bush and ran against the effectiveness of Congress. Ogonowski’s campaign theme:
Ogonowski, a farmer, retired Air Force lieutenant colonel and brother of the pilot of American Flight 11, the first plane to hit the World Trade Center on Sept. 11, has predictably distanced himself from President Bush and the unpopular war in Iraq.
But he has also added a theme that could help GOP hopefuls next year, particularly those competing for open seats: a relentless chorus of complaints about the competency of Congress and the culture of Washington in general.
“This election is clearly a referendum on our Congress - it’s not working for us,” Ogonowski said in an interview last week. “I’ve been asking every single group I meet in front of, ‘Anyone here like the job Congress is doing?’ I have yet to have a person in the Fifth District tell me they like it.”
As a Republican running in a solidly Democratic district that hasn’t elected a Republican since 1972, Ogonowski face[d] a decidedly tough challenge. He lost the fundraising battle by at least 4 to 1: As of Sept. 26, Tsongas had raised $1.93 million, compared with $434,000 for Ogonowski.
But his anti-Washington message, his decision to downplay his Republican affiliation and his compelling biography appear to have put him within striking distance of Tsongas.
Many Democrats and political pundits have assumed that 2008 will be a banner year for Democrats as a) Bush’s poll numbers are in the “tank,” b) the Iraqi occupation is highly unpopular and c) Republicans are prepared to sustain Bush’s veto of SCHIP. Tsongas’ victory is a warning that Americans; while dissatisfied with the performance of Bush and the Republicans are also dissatisfied with Democrats as well. Americans are holding both Parties accountable.
The message for Democrats is relatively simple; They are looking for candidates and the Party that will be the engine of change from “politics as usual.” Will that be the Democrat Party?
FOUR DOWN
October has generated four polls from the list of public polls that TPJ uses to determine Bush’s average approval rating. All four October polls show a slight drop in Bush’s standing with the American public, 32.50% approval. The four polls suggest that the August and September “bounce” in Bush’s approval rating is over for the moment. Caution is warranted however, as three more polls are needed before the true trend can be established.
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Approve |
Trail Mo |
Disapprove |
No Opinion |
Spread |
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2007 |
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USA Today/Gallup |
10/12-14/07 |
32.00 |
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64.00 |
3.00 |
-32.00 |
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FOX/Opinion Dynamics |
10/9-10/07 |
35.00 |
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56.00 |
9.00 |
-21.00 |
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Gallup |
10/4-7/07 |
32.00 |
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64.00 |
4.00 |
-32.00 |
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AP-Ipsos |
10/1-3/07 |
31.00 |
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66.00 |
3.00 |
-35.00 |
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October Avg |
32.50 |
-0.67 |
62.50 |
4.75 |
-30.00 |
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September Avg |
33.17 |
1.17 |
61.75 |
5.17 |
-28.58 |
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August Avg |
32.00 |
1.58 |
61.67 |
6.33 |
-29.33 |
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July Avg |
30.42 |
-0.43 |
63.5 |
6.08 |
-33.08 |
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June Avg |
30.85 |
-2.38 |
63.23 |
6 |
-32.38 |
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May Avg |
33.22 |
-1.7 |
61.33 |
5.56 |
-28.11 |
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April Avg |
34.92 |
1.49 |
59.92 |
5.15 |
-25 |
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March Avg |
33.43 |
-0.24 |
60.43 |
6.14 |
-27 |
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February Avg |
33.67 |
-0.22 |
60.17 |
6.08 |
-26.5 |
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January Avg |
33.89 |
-1.61 |
61.61 |
4.83 |
-27.7 |
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2006 |
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December Avg |
35.50 |
-0.93 |
59.25 |
5.42 |
-23.75 |
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November Avg |
36.43 |
-1.07 |
58.00 |
5.50 |
-21.57 |
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October Avg |
37.50 |
-3.42 |
57.11 |
5.36 |
-19.61 |
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September Avg |
40.92 |
2.64 |
54.23 |
4.77 |
-13.31 |
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August Avg |
38.29 |
0.59 |
57.14 |
4.64 |
-18.86 |
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July Avg |
37.70 |
0.49 |
56.40 |
5.90 |
-18.70 |
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June Avg |
37.21 |
3.05 |
56.79 |
5.93 |
-19.57 |
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May Avg |
34.17 |
-1.58 |
60.33 |
5.91 |
-26.17 |
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April Avg |
35.75 |
-1.35 |
57.75 |
6.82 |
-22.00 |
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March Avg |
37.10 |
-2.54 |
57.30 |
5.80 |
-20.20 |
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February Avg |
39.64 |
-2.42 |
55.21 |
5.23 |
-15.57 |
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January Avg |
42.07 |
1.32 |
53.27 |
5.07 |
-11.20 |
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2005 |
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December Avg |
40.75 |
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