UPDATED: OCT 10, 2007
THEY DIE FIRST
Voter ID laws (positive photo ID required to vote) being passed in a number of states with Republican support are being challenged in the Federal Courts. The challenge has come from minorities, particularly Blacks, who understand that such laws operate to disenfranchise those who do not have such ID’s.
According to Republicans, who are the inspiration for Voter ID, the law actually discriminates against Whites, not minorities. Bush’s Chief of the Voting Section of the U.S. Department of Justice, John Tanner explains why Democrats’ logic is all wrong:
It's probably true that among those who don't [have photo ID], it's primarily elderly persons. And that's a shame. You know, creating problems for elderly persons just is not good under any circumstance. Of course...that also ties in to the racial aspect, because our society is such that minorities don't become elderly. The way white people do. They die first.
There are inequities in health care. There are a variety of inequities in this country. And so anything that disproportionately impacts the elderly has the opposite impact on minorities – just the math is such as that.
On its face, Tanner is stating that Voter ID laws make it harder for the elderly to vote as if that is not repugnant to democratic constitutional principles. Astounding, especially since Tanner made these comments before a minority conference in Georgia.
The Supreme Court will hear the constitutional issues during this session of court. Democrats should not be optimistic as to the outcome.
TWO DOWN
Gallup is the second poll released in October and Bush’s approval rating is down again. Gallup’s 32% approval rating is down -4% from their September poll. As of today, both October polls have Bush’s approval rating trailing his September results.
TPJ is also struck by the fact that Bush’s disapproval rating is up +2% in both the Gallup and AP-Ipsos polls from their findings in September. In previous months there have been two patterns. First pattern, Bush’s approval rating declines and those with “no opinion” rises, averaging 5%+. In August and September, Bush’s approval rating actually rose while his disapproval rating fell. In October, Bush’s approval rating falls, disapproval goes up by more than the approval rate declines and those with no opinion declines to the lowest levels since early 2005.
In our estimation, public opinion is shifting rather significantly. Is it Bush’s veto of SCHIP? Is it the growing storm clouds of an attack on Iran? Both?
Frankly, at least three more polls are needed before the “fog of polling” will clear sufficiently to permit greater clarity of trends. But, the Bush “bounce” of August and September appears to be over.
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TPJ'S BUSH WATCH |
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Approve |
Trail Mo |
Disapprove |
No Opinion |
Spread |
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2007 |
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Gallup |
10/4-7/07 |
32.00 |
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64.00 |
4.00 |
-32.00 |
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AP-Ipsos |
10/1-3/07 |
31.00 |
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66.00 |
3.00 |
-35.00 |
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October Avg |
31.50 |
-1.67 |
65.00 |
3.50 |
-33.50 |
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September Avg |
33.17 |
1.17 |
61.75 |
5.17 |
-28.58 |
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August Avg |
32.00 |
1.58 |
61.67 |
6.33 |
-29.33 |
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July Avg |
30.42 |
-0.43 |
63.5 |
6.08 |
-33.08 |
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June Avg |
30.85 |
-2.38 |
63.23 |
6 |
-32.38 |
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May Avg |
33.22 |
-1.7 |
61.33 |
5.56 |
-28.11 |
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April Avg |
34.92 |
1.49 |
59.92 |
5.15 |
-25 |
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March Avg |
33.43 |
-0.24 |
60.43 |
6.14 |
-27 |
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February Avg |
33.67 |
-0.22 |
60.17 |
6.08 |
-26.5 |
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January Avg |
33.89 |
-1.61 |
61.61 |
4.83 |
-27.7 |
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2006 |
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December Avg |
35.50 |
-0.93 |
59.25 |
5.42 |
-23.75 |
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November Avg |
36.43 |
-1.07 |
58.00 |
5.50 |
-21.57 |
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October Avg |
37.50 |
-3.42 |
57.11 |
5.36 |
-19.61 |
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September Avg |
40.92 |
2.64 |
54.23 |
4.77 |
-13.31 |
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August Avg |
38.29 |
0.59 |
57.14 |
4.64 |
-18.86 |
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July Avg |
37.70 |
0.49 |
56.40 |
5.90 |
-18.70 |
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June Avg |
37.21 |
3.05 |
56.79 |
5.93 |
-19.57 |
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May Avg |
34.17 |
-1.58 |
60.33 |
5.91 |
-26.17 |
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April Avg |
35.75 |
-1.35 |
57.75 |
6.82 |
-22.00 |
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March Avg |
37.10 |
-2.54 |
57.30 |
5.80 |
-20.20 |
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February Avg |
39.64 |
-2.42 |
55.21 |
5.23 |
-15.57 |
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January Avg |
42.07 |
1.32 |
53.27 |
5.07 |
-11.20 |
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2005 |
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December Avg |
40.75 |
2.83 |
54.25 |
6.33 |
-13.50 |
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November Avg |
37.92 |
-1.93 |
56.46 |
6.09 |
-18.54 |
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October Avg |
39.86 |
-1.46 |
55.07 |
5.58 |
-15.21 |
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September Avg |
41.31 |
-1.91 |
53.75 |
4.81 |
-12.44 |
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August Avg |
43.22 |
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