UPDATED: NOV 8, 2007
EVANGELICALS
The New York Times Magazine (emphasis added) has published a comprehensive article by David Kilpatrick documenting the “crackup” of the evangelical coalition with the Republican Party. Kilpatrick, who has long covered the evangelical political movement, finds:
Today the president’s support among evangelicals, still among his most loyal constituents, has crumbled. Once close to 90 percent, the president’s approval rating among white evangelicals has fallen to a recent low below 45 percent, according to polls by the Pew Research Center. White evangelicals under 30 — the future of the church — were once Bush’s biggest fans; now they are less supportive than their elders. And the dissatisfaction extends beyond Bush. For the first time in many years, white evangelical identification with the Republican Party has dipped below 50 percent, with the sharpest falloff again among the young, according to John C. Green, a senior fellow at Pew and an expert on religion and politics. (The defectors by and large say they’ve become independents, not Democrats, according to the polls.)
Some claim the falloff in support for Bush reflects the unrealistic expectations pumped up by conservative Christian leaders. But no one denies the war is a factor. Christianity Today, the evangelical journal, has even posed the question of whether evangelicals should “repent” for their swift support of invading Iraq.
“Even in evangelical circles, we are tired of the war, tired of the body bags,” the Rev. David Welsh, who took over late last year as senior pastor of Wichita’s large Central Christian Church, told me. “I think it is to the point where they are saying: ‘O.K., we have done as much good as we can. Now let’s just get out of there.’ ”
Welsh, who favors pressed khaki pants and buttoned-up polo shirts, is a staunch conservative, a committed Republican and, personally, a politics junkie. But he told me he was wary of talking too much about politics or public affairs around the church because his congregation was so divided over the war in Iraq.
Welsh said he considered himself among those who still support the president. “I think he is a good man,” Welsh said, slowly. “He has a heart, a spiritual heart.”
But like most of the people I met at Wichita’s evangelical churches, his support for Bush sounded more than a little agonized — closer to sympathy than admiration. “Bush may not have the best people around him,” he added, delicately. “He may not have made the best decisions. He is in a quagmire right now and maybe doesn’t know how to get out. Because to pull out now would say, ‘I was wrong from the very beginning.’ ”
Some were less ambivalent. “We know we want to get rid of Bush,” Linda J. Hogle, a product demonstrator at Sam’s Club, told me when I asked her about the 2008 election at her evangelical church’s Fourth of July picnic.
“I am glad he can’t run again,” agreed her friend, Floyd Willson. Hogle and Willson both voted for President Bush in 2004. Both are furious at the war and are looking to vote for a Democrat next year. “Upwards of a thousand boys that have been needlessly killed, it is all just politics,” Willson said.
Kilpatrick’s findings are critical for Democrats to understand. The article is simply a must read.
SLIP SLIDING AWAY
In Sunday’s coverage of October polling, TPJ noted some apparent softening in Bush’s approval rating. Three polls have been released since Sunday, and Bush’s average approval rating has fractionally declined. Bush’s average approval rating is again below 33% while disapproval remains above 60%.
There is a natural tendency to focus on the subtle movement of polling numbers. However, as previously noted, Bush’s average approval rating has moved within a narrow range; 30% to 33%, since January 2007. The three polls in November seem to confirm that trend will continue.
At TPJ, we are beginning to suspect that Bush will close out his term essentially at the same approval ratings that currently exist absent unexpected events. Essentially, public attitudes toward Bush have hardened to such a degree that he has little upward opportunity. USA Today/Gallup’s last polling advisory concluded:
Meanwhile, Bush reached an unwelcome record. By 64%-31%, Americans disapprove of the job he is doing. For the first time in the history of the Gallup Poll, 50% say they "strongly disapprove" of the president. Richard Nixon had reached the previous high, 48%, just before an impeachment inquiry was launched in 1974.
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TPJ'S BUSH WATCH |
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Approve |
Trail Mo |
Disapprove |
No Opinion |
Spread |
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2007 |
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USA Today/Gallup |
11/2-4/07 |
31 |
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64 |
5 |
-33 |
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ABC/Washington Post |
10/29 - 11/1/07 |
33 |
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64 |
3 |
-31 |
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WNBC/Marist RV |
10/29 - 11/1/07 |
34 |
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58 |
8 |
-24 |
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November Avg |
32.67 |
-0.43 |
62.00 |
5.33 |
-29.33 |
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October Avg |
33.10 |
-0.07 |
60.90 |
5.90 |
-27.80 |
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September Avg |
33.17 |
1.17 |
61.75 |
5.17 |
-28.58 |
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August Avg |
32.00 |
1.58 |
61.67 |
6.33 |
-29.33 |
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July Avg |
30.42 |
-0.43 |
63.50 |
6.08 |
-33.08 |
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June Avg |
30.85 |
-2.38 |
63.23 |
6.00 |
-32.38 |
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May Avg |
33.22 |
-1.70 |
61.33 |
5.56 |
-28.11 |
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April Avg |
34.92 |
1.49 |
59.92 |
5.15 |
-25.00 |
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March Avg |
33.43 |
-0.24 |
60.43 |
6.14 |
-27.00 |
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February Avg |
33.67 |
-0.22 |
60.17 |
6.08 |
-26.50 |
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January Avg |
33.89 |
-1.61 |
61.61 |
4.83 |
-27.70 |
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2006 |
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December Avg |
35.50 |
-0.93 |
59.25 |
5.42 |
-23.75 |
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November Avg |
36.43 |
-1.07 |
58.00 |
5.50 |
-21.57 |
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October Avg |
37.50 |
-3.42 |
57.11 |
5.36 |
-19.61 |
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September Avg |
40.92 |
2.64 |
54.23 |
4.77 |
-13.31 |
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August Avg |
38.29 |
0.59 |
57.14 |
4.64 |
-18.86 |
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July Avg |
37.70 |
0.49 |
56.40 |
5.90 |
-18.70 |
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June Avg |
37.21 |
3.05 |
56.79 |
5.93 |
-19.57 |
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May Avg |
34.17 |
-1.58 |
60.33 |
5.91 |
-26.17 |
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April Avg |
35.75 |
-1.35 |
57.75 |
6.82 |
-22.00 |
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March Avg |
37.10 |
-2.54 |
57.30 |
5.80 |
-20.20 |
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February Avg |
39.64 |
-2.42 |
55.21 |
5.23 |
-15.57 |
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January Avg |
42.07 |
1.32 |
53.27 |
5.07 |
-11.20 |
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2005 |
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