Them Dems

archived: 27 May - 03 Jun, 2007         Back                 Next

UPDATED:  MAY 30, 2007

TWO VIEWS 

The national economy is reemerging as a “hot button” issue.  Gasoline prices are near historic highs, job creation is falling and the housing market is suffering. These developments will have political consequences. 

Jared Bernstein at Economic Policy Institute (a TPJ favorite) is a respected and reliable economist.  He is warning that a recession is looming.  His assessment of the political consequences: 

First, if we do head into recession, look for politicians to start talking about Keynesian tax cuts to stimulate the economy.  That could prove to be an interesting debate.  The Bushies have no credibility on tax policy—they argue for them no matter what the state of the economy, and they target them largely in one direction: at the top of the income scale, the folks shopping at Saks.  

Still, there’s is a good rationale for putting more money in people’s pockets when the engine of private sector growth is misfiring.  Stay tuned. 

Second, a recession could change the nature of the presidential campaign.  The Republican candidates, though they distance themselves from the president, all pretty much embrace Bushonomics.  That's a tough case to make anyway, but it's going to be especially tough in a downturn.  Yes, you’ll hear all kinds of nonsense about how the recession (if there is one) is Clinton’s fault, but there no way around it: recessions hurt incumbents. 

I hope I’m wrong.  After all, we’re not in the woods yet (though if GDP has really slowed to about zero, we may be).  I hope the housing slump evaporates tomorrow, wages start to beat inflation again, and job growth comes roaring back.  But you heard it here: the signs are pointing toward recession.

Americans are starting to feel the financial pain as well.  The ABC News/Washington Post CONSUMER COMFORT INDEX reveals that Americans are viewing their economic situation negatively: 

Interviewing
End Date

Consumer
Comfort
Index

 

 

5/27/07

-13

 

5/21/07

-9

 

5/13/07

-7

 

5/6/07

-3

 

4/29/07

-5

 

4/22/07

-7

 

4/15/07

-5

 

4/7/07

-7

 

4/1/07

-5

 

3/25/07

-2

 

3/18/07

-5

 

3/11/07

2

 

3/4/07

-1

 

 

 

A recent American Research Group (“ARG”) poll finds distinct differences in views between those who “approve” of Bush’s performance in office and those who “disapprove.”  As Bush’s approval rating is largely limited to the Republican base, ARG’s results below reveal Republican views that stand in stark contrast with the balance of Americans. 

Among Republicans, 58% approve of the way Bush is handling the economy and 29% disapprove. Among Democrats, 83% disapprove of the way Bush is handling the economy and 10% approve. Among Independents, 29% approve and 70% disapprove of the way Bush is handling the economy. 

Among those saying they approve of the way Bush is handling his job, 54% say [the ecnomy is] getting better, 35% say staying the same, and 4% say getting worse. Of those saying they disapprove of the way Bush is handling his job, 4% say [the economy is] getting better, 18% say staying the same, and 75% say getting worse. 

Among those saying they approve of the way Bush is handling his job, 23% say the national economy is in a recession and 65% say is it not in a recession. Of those saying they disapprove of the way Bush is handling his job, 45% say the national economy is in a recession and 27% say the national economy is not in a recession. 

Among those saying they approve of the way Bush is handling his job, 46% say better than today, 46% say the same as today, and 7% say worse than today. Among those saying they disapprove of the way Bush is handling his job, 22% say better than today, 25% say the same as today, and 45% say worse than today.

There is an obvious disconnect between Republicans and most American citizens.  The American economy is literally failing to meet the needs of millions of Americans; job creation is lagging, citizens are incurring more debt, wages for the employed are not keeping up with inflation and rising energy prices are taxing family budgets.  Most Republicans see this situation as reflecting a good economy.  

As gasoline (energy) prices remain at historic levels, the odds of the 2008 campaign taking place within the context of a recession are growing.  It is a potentially decisive issue and the Republican view is that all is well.  It is a disconnect that Democrats must fashion into a salient issue in 2008.

_____________________________________________

UPDATED:  MAY 27, 2007

                        FLUMMOXED  

Democrats, especially progressive Democrats, are flummoxed over Congressional Democrats supporting continued funding of the occupation in Iraq without withdrawal dates and ineffective benchmarks.  “Capitulation” is the word Democrats most often associated with the vote.  

Perhaps the most concise and articulate assault on Democrats comes from Keith Olbermann at MSNBC.  If you have not already viewed his assessment, click on the hyperlink below to go directly to the video: 

WE HAVE BEEN BETRAYED 

Olbermann and a plethora of Democratic blogs flog Congressional Democrats for ignoring the results of the 2006 election and the 70% of the public that disapproves of the Republican occupation in Iraq.   

Oblermann and Democratic bloggers miss one very critical fact.  While they correctly and repeatedly cite that the overwhelming number of Americans oppose the continued operation of Iraq, they ignore, intentionally or unintentionally, the same polling surveys that Americans are overwhelmingly opposed a Democratic Party plan to stop funding for the war in the face of a presidential veto.   

The most recent CBS/NYT poll, May 18-23, lays out the questions that define the broad parameters of public opinion in regard to Iraq. Without question, 70%+ of Americans disapprove of Bush’s conduct of the Iraq occupation; and special note should be given to the fact that only a narrow majority of Republicans now support Bush’s conduct. 

 

 

 

"Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling the situation with Iraq?"

 

 

 

 

 

 

Approve

Disapprove

Unsure

 

 

%

%

%

 

ALL adults

23

72

5

 

  Republicans

54

40

6

 

  Democrats

4

93

3

 

  Independents

19

77

4

 

           

Second, Americans looking in hindsight understand that Bush’s excursion into Iraq was a mistake.  While not shown, the polling history for this question shows that the percentage of Americans who view Iraq as a mistake progressively grows over time. 

"Looking back, do you think the United States did the right thing in taking military action against Iraq, or should the U.S. have stayed out?"

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Right Thing

Stayed Out

Unsure

 

 

 

%

%

%

 

 

5/18-23/07

35

61

4

 

 

4/9-12/07

44

51

5

 

Third, the public fully understands that Bush’s occupation of Iraq is not succeeding.  Only 23% believe the occupation is going well to any degree.

"How would you say things are going for the U.S. in its efforts to bring stability and order to Iraq? Would you say things are going very well, somewhat well, somewhat badly, or very badly?"

 

 

 

 

 

 

.

 

 

Very Well

Somewhat
Well

Somewhat
Badly

Very Badly

Unsure

 

 

%

%

%

%

%

 

5/18-23/07

2

21

29

47

1

 

4/9-12/07

2

29

30

36

3

Fourth, and by nearly equal margins, Americans comprehend that Bush’s “surge” is not working.  76% hold the opinion that the surge has had no impact or made the situation worse.

"As you may know, the U.S. is sending more than 20,000 additional troops to Iraq. From what you have heard or read, would you say this troop increase is making the situation in Iraq better, making it worse, or is it having no impact on the situation in Iraq so far?"

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Better

Worse

No Impact

Unsure

 

 

%

%

%

%

 

5/18-23/07

20

26

50

4

 

4/9-12/07

25

26

43

6

 

Fifth, an overwhelming of Americans wants a deadline for the occupation of Iraq to end.

"Do you think the United States should or should not set a timetable for the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq sometime in 2008?"

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Should

Should Not

Unsure

 

 

 

%

%

%

 

 

5/18-23/07

63

34

3

 

 

4/20-24/07

64

32

4

 

 

4/9-12/07

57

38

5

 

With polling responses as those above, it would seem logical that Americans would be willing to stop funding for the Iraqi occupation in order to force the withdrawal of troops.  The apparent logic does not apply.  Only 13% of Americans want Congress to block all funds; instead, the vast majority wants benchmarks for progress to end the occupation.

"Which of these comes closest to your opinion? Congress should block all funding for the war in Iraq no matter what. Congress should allow funding, but only on the condition that the U.S. sets benchmarks for progress and the Iraqi government are meeting those goals. OR, Congress should allow all funding for the war without any benchmark conditions."

 

 

 

 

 

 

.

 

 

Block All

Fund With
Benchmarks

Allow All

Unsure

 

 

 

%

%

%

%

 

 

5/18-23/07

13

69

15

3

 

Olbermann and critics of Congressional Democrats are correct; Americans voted for Democrats in November to end the war.  Olbermann and critics of Congressional Democrats are also wrong; Democrats won the 2006 election, but it was not a mandate for Democrats to simply “pull the plug.”  The polling above suggests Americans still want to leave a government in Iraq that has a chance of succeeding and want to set benchmarks for the Iraqis to make progress towards that goal.

From this vantage point, Congressional Democrats represented the will of the people, if not the policy goals of many Democrats, including TPJ, in settling for benchmarks.  Many Democrats are not only flummoxed but intensely angry at the Democratic Party.  At TPJ, we believe that the best utilization of that anger is continuing to make the case to all Americans that the only rational course of action is to withdraw from Iraq now.  Until progressive Democrats can change the last poll question, the reality is that Congressional Democrats will not simply vote to withhold funds.

How progressive Democrats make that case is the subject of the article below.

                        HEARTS AND MINDS 

How do Democrats stop the war?  George Lakoff and Glenn Smith of the Rockridge Institute have authored a sound strategy for Democrats.  Entitled, The Framers Got It Right: Congress is the Decider, the authors make a compelling case of how to stop the war (emphasis added).

Critics of Congress's passage this week of the Iraq supplemental spending bill lament a lack of political courage. But Congress would find it easier to act courageously if the public understood the constitutional stakes. And that public understanding requires correct and persistent framing by Congress itself. What needs to have been framed — indeed what still needs to be framed — is Congress's constitutional responsibility and power to set the course on military missions like Iraq.

Here is what two of the country's most distinguished scholars on Constitutional powers testified to Congress on January 30, 2007:

"Congress possesses substantial constitutional authority to regulate ongoing military operations and even to bring them to an end." — David J. Barron, Harvard Law School

 

"The legislative judgment to take the country to war carries with it a duty throughout the conflict to decide that military force remains in the national interest. ... Congress is responsible for monitoring what it has set in motion. In the midst of war, there are no grounds for believing that the President's authority is superior to the collective judgment of its elected representatives. Congress has both the constitutional authority and the responsibility to retain control and recalibrate national policy whenever necessary."
— Louis Fisher, Constitutional Specialist, Library of Congress

Here's what this means:

The Framers of the Constitution framed the current debate over Iraq: Congress sets the overall strategy, and retains control over troop levels, redeployment dates, etc. The president's job is to carry out the strategic mission set by Congress.

The United States Constitution designates Congress as The Decider: they decide on overall military strategy. That is their constitutional duty. The president is the commander in chief of the military — and only the military. He is not commander over Congress, nor is he commander over the people of the United States. As such, the president's duty is to carry out the strategic mission given to him by Congress.

But Congress has abdicated its duty.

Congressional leaders have neglected to remind the nation what the Constitution says. They have allowed the president to reframe the Constitution, usurping their power for himself. The Framers framed it right. The Congress irresponsibly let the president reframe the Constitution.

The issue is more than the vital details of Iraq spending, withdrawal, timetables, and the safety of our troops. The issue is whether Congress will continue to allow the president to exercise dictatorial powers. Or whether Congress will insist on the framing of the Framers.

Framing has been vital. Opponents of the president's Iraq policies should have framed the issue immediately when Democratic leaders took control in January 2007. The message should have been: Congress defines the strategic mission; the president's job is to carry it out. He is refusing to carry out his mission.

Congress allowed the president to take over its job to decide the strategic mission and to put Congress in the role of merely providing funding. This allowed the president to cast Congress in the role of "refusing to fund the troops," "endangering the safety of our troops," "playing chicken with the lives of our troops," "hamstringing our troops," and so on. It allowed President Bush to portray Congress as responsible for the safety of our troops, whereas the real responsibility lay with him. By allowing the president to reframe the Constitution and take away their powers, Congress made itself fatally vulnerable. Most of the Democrats wound up adopting the president's framing of them as responsible for the safety of the troops.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid excused the vote by saying that the Democrats did not have a veto-proof Congress. But they did not need one. They could have chosen to exercise their authority by refusing to pass a spending bill without redeployment timetables.

House Appropriations Committee chairman David Obey said it was the best deal Congress could make because "the White House is in a cloud somewhere in terms of understanding the realities of Iraq." This is tantamount to saying that Congress has no choice but to accede to an irrational demand of the President.

Representative Louise Slaughter defended her vote this way:

"As such, we had a choice. We could send Mr. Bush the same bill, or allow something to pass that wouldn't be vetoed. And we elected to let something pass - to let Republicans, if they so choose, fund their own war.

Considering that 90% of the Out of Iraq Caucus was with us in this decision, there must have been at least some reason for it. In fact, there are two in my opinion. With this White House, and with this Republican minority, it is safe to say that a standoff with the Administration would have meant that our troops would be left in harm's way, only now with even less funding to back them up. I don't think that would have been right to do - to make them do even more with even less. The President doesn't seem to care how much our troops suffer. All evidence indicates that he will make them fight if they have needed funding or not.

Secondly, a standoff would have allowed the President to keep using our soldiers as pawns, accusing Democrats of abandoning them while it is really his war that has left them to fend for themselves."

In other words, allowing themselves to be framed in a subordinate position, many who originally voted to impose timetables retreated, thinking that they were forced to accept the president's framing of them. And being progressives — with the fundamental values of empathy and responsibility — they were doubly trapped. Their empathy for the troops — and their inability to take on their Constitutional role — forced even many Out of Iraq Caucus members to vote against their own position.

Now, one might read the Constitution a bit differently, perhaps maintaining that the Congress is only co-equal with the president. But that still does not put the president in a superior position and Congress in the position of merely a funding funnel for the mission he determines. Even under this interpretation, Congress has abdicated its Constitutional duty.

If you mistakenly believe that framing is mere PR or spin, recall that there is a reason why we speak of the "Framers" of the Constitution. All of our concepts come in the form of frames. Our deepest values and most enduring truths were "framed" by our "Framers." To protect those values and those truths requires the right framing. And to remind the public of those values and truths requires repeating over and over how the Framers framed our form of government, and why it matters today. Framing is a matter of life and death — and the survival of our democracy.

Many public critics of the Iraq occupation have accused the Democrats of cowardice, of weakness, of "caving in" — even of "betraying" the American people who voted for withdrawal from Iraq. But that is too easy a judgment. The result was determined in January 2007 when they allowed the president to reframe the Constitution.

The good news is that the present spending authorization is for "only" until September. We have until then to get the Framers' framing right. By "we," we don't mean just those in Congress, or those on the blogs. We mean the progressive grassroots throughout the country. We all need to act, and we can!

But before discussing actions, it is important to recognize other framing mistakes that need to be avoided.

Using the term "war." Literally, a war is a battle between two armies over territorial control. It is over when one army defeats the other. That happened in May, 2003, with the removal of Saddam Hussein's regime and when President Bush stood on that battleship under the "Mission Accomplished" banner. At that point an "occupation" began — an "occupation" of a country engaged in ethnic and religious conflict. Bush is technically no longer a war president; he is an occupation president. "War" has given the president a chance to claim extraordinary powers. There are other terms to use: occupation, military engagement, military operation, and so on. If Senator Jim Webb can use the term "occupation," as he did in his campaign, so can every other elected official.

"The power of the purse." Controlling appropriation is a constitutional duty. Referring to this duty with such a dismissive term promotes the idea that the president sets the mission and the job of Congress is just a cashier.

"Providing a check on presidential power." This sounds like Congress is just getting in the way, keeping the president from exercising his legitimate authority.

"Micromanaging the war," "overriding the commanders in the field." Congressional leaders should never let the president get away with such claims. Congress sets the overall policy agenda. The job of the commander-in-chief is to carry out that agenda, making sure that the commanders in the field are serving the Congressional mission. Say this over and over.

Permitting the Betrayal Myth: America, as a moral country with a strong military, should defeat all enemies. If America does lose a war, it is a result of too little support at home. In other words, but for betrayal, our good intentions and military might /would win all conflicts. If the U.S. loses, the opponents of the military operation at home are to blame for "not supporting our troops," and for "undermining their morale."

Progressives must point out that it is the president, with an enabling Congress, who commenced a foolhardy adventure with no clear exit strategy or way to "win." That same president has refused to properly prepare or adequately equip soldiers — and now he is blaming Congress. When Congress passed a supplemental spending bill with reasonable timetables attached, he refused it. The betrayer is the president. Say it over and over: The president has betrayed our troops and the nation.

Allowing the question to be asked whether "Congress has a constitutional duty to fully fund troops during wartime." It is Congress that determines what "wartime" is.

That is its Constitutional duty. The president does not have the Constitutional authority to declare whether we are at war. Only Congress has that authority, and it can only exercise it for at most two years at a time.

The president wants the country to believe that he is the soldier's protector and Congress is the villain. This is a cynical, revisionist narrative. The storyline that must be maintained casts Congress as the helper of heroic troops, the president as the false-hero or villain who sent them into harm's way inadequately armed and unprotected on a mission based upon lies. It is Bush who, with his veto, stood in the way of providing the troops with the funding they need. Progressives have missed this framing opportunity.

The continued abdication of the proper Constitutional role for Congress comes from the fear of blame for military casualties. Opponents of the Iraq occupation are concerned, and rightly so, that the Bush administration will frame killed or wounded soldiers as victims of Democratic mismanagement or partisan politicking. It is a fair guess that Democratic consultants are fretting that, if the Democratic Congress takes control of setting the mission in Iraq, Bush will lift the blackout on news coverage of returning injured and dead U.S. soldiers, using them as props in allegations that the casualties are the fault of "politicians." Progressives must publicly confront the president about this as they reclaim their Constitutional power, derailing any attempt to shift responsibility.

Those are the pitfalls to be avoided. Now it is time to plan a course of unified grassroots action.

ACTION: Write to your Congresspersons and Senators and ask them to frame their Constitutional role as the Framers did. We suggest that you raise the following issues:

The Constitution provides Congress with the power to define the military agenda, including troop re-deployment and the establishment of timetables.

The role of the president is to carry out the agenda defined by Congress.

Congress must continuously assert its Constitutional power and responsibility.

Congress must not give in to the betrayal myth. The president was offered funding with timetables but he turned it down — he is the betrayer.

Congress must frame the matter as an issue of Constitutional authority

Congress must place the safety of the troops directly in the hands of the commander-in-chief, whose job is to carry out the agenda given by Congress, which includes protecting the safety of our troops.

Don't just write to your Congressperson. Write to the editors of your local newspapers. Flood the email boxes of the television and radio news shows, as well as national magazines. Send this call for action to your email lists. And write to progressive activist organizations like MoveOn, Democracy for America, and so on, to ask their memberships to support this action. And don't do it just once. Repetition is the key to success. Keep it up until the next funding vote in September.

                        NO CHANGE

Two new polls since our last report, CBS/New York Times and Diageo/Hotline; 61.33% of Americans disapprove of Bush’s job performance while only 33.22% approve.  Diageo/Hotline’s 32% is a new low for that polling firm.

The trends, for the moment, remain the same.  Bush’s approval rating has seesawed within a very narrow band of 33% to 35% for the last six months.  Movement within this narrow range is most likely statistical “noise.”  Bush’s approval rating; 33.22%, is at the lower end of the range again.

TPJ'S BUSH WATCH

 

 

Approve

Trail Mo

Disapprove

No Opinion

Spread

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2007

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CBS/New York Times

5/18-23/07

30

 

63

7

-33

Diageo/Hotline RV

5/16-20/07

32

 

64

4

-32

FOX/Opinion Dynamics

5/15-16/07

34

 

56

10

-22

AP-Ipsos

5/7-9/07

35

 

61

4

-26

USA Today/Gallup

5/5 - 5/6/07

34

 

62

4

-28

CNN/Opinion Research

5/4-6/07

38

 

61

1

-23

WNBC/Marist RV

4/26 - 5/1/07

33

 

61

6

-28

Newsweek

5/5/2007

28

 

64

8

-36

Quinnipiac RV

4/25 - 5/1/07

35

 

60

6

-25