There is not 'one' civil war, nor 'one' insurgency, but several civil wars and insurgencies between different communities in today's Iraq.  Within this warring society, the Iraqi government is only one among many 'state-like' actors, and is largely irrelevant in terms of ordering social, economic, and political life.  It is now possible to argue that Iraq is on the verge of being a failed state which faces the distinct possibility of collapse and fragmentation.  These are some of the key findings of Accepting Realities in Iraq a new Briefing Paper written by Dr Gareth Stansfield and published today by Chatham House. 

The paper also assesses Al-Qaeda activity within Iraq, especially in the major cities in the centre and north of the country. Dr Stansfield argues that, although Al-Qaeda is challenged by local groups, there is momentum behind its activity. Iraq's neighbors too have a greater capacity to affect the situation on the ground than either the UK or the US. Iran, Saudi Arabia and Turkey all have different reasons for seeing the instability in Iraq continue, and each uses different methods to influence developments. 

Dr Stansfield argues that with the myriad conflicts in Iraq following societal, religious and political divides and often involving state actors, the multinational forces are finding it exceptionally difficult to promote security normalization. The recent US 'surge' in Baghdad looks likely to have simply pushed insurgent activity to neighboring cities and cannot deliver the required political accommodation. A political solution will require Sunni Arab representatives’ participation in government, the recognition of Moqtada al-Sadr as a legitimate political partner, and a positive response to Kurdish concerns. Further, it would be a mistake to believe that the political forces in Iraq are weak and can be reorganized by the US or the international community, there must be ‘buy-in’ from the key Iraqi political actors. 

Dr Stansfield says: ‘The coming year will be pivotal for Iraq. The internecine fighting and continual struggle for power threatens the nation’s very existence in its current form. An acceptance of the realities on the ground in Iraq and a fundamental rethinking of strategy by coalition powers are vital if there is to be any chance of future political stability in the country.’

Supporters call it a Comprehensive Immigration Reform Bill, but top radio talker Rush Limbaugh has another name for it. He calls it the "Comprehensive Destroy the Republican Party Bill."

During Friday's syndicated broadcast of the Rush Limbaugh program, Rush criticized the Senate's immigration proposal as liberalism gone wild.

"Liberals are trying to tear this country down institution by institution and rebuild it in their own image, and this is one of the steps that they are trying to make it happen," he said.

Rush warned that if this bill comes out of the Senate in its present form - and it's highly doubtful that it will - the liberals in the House will not vote for it. He said the politicians realize that there are Democrats in California, Arizona, Texas and Virginia where illegal immigration is a red hot issue and a vote for this bill would be political suicide.

As for Republicans, they have already lost California, Rush reminded his listeners. If they lose Virginia and lose Florida, it's all over for the GOP as far as elections go. And being blamed for this immigration bill could cost them both states.

Rush explained that this is why Senate Democrats want Republicans to receive "credit" for passing this bill.

"It's a piece of legislation that hardly anybody has ever seen," he said, yet already "there are walls of opposition that are being built on all sides of this."

The bill, he warned, will create "a brand new, giant welfare state paid by the rest of us," yet illegal immigrants are telling the media: "'I don't like this. I don't like having to go home. I don't want to pay these fines.'"

They needn't worry, Rush said. The illegals will not be forced to go home at all. They are not going to pay any fines. It's not going to happen because there is no political will to do so.

"Once this bill passes they'll be talking about how if you have to go home it will split up families and they'll say the fines would be taking food out of the mouths of poor children by making the parents pay these ridiculous fines," Rush told his audience.

Speaking of why any Republicans are supporting the bill, Rush explained: "You could legalize rape in this country if you simply called it the Civil Rights Act of 2007 because nobody on Capitol Hill has the guts to vote against anything that claims to be broadening or creating civil rights. It's a code word."