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archived:
20 - 26 May, 2007
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Next UPDATED: MAY 16, 2007 ON DOLE Stuart Rothenberg of The Rothenberg Political Report (a TPJ favorite) provides his latest analysis of the potential 2008 North Carolina US Senate race. Rothenberg essential question is can Sen. Dole be defeated. His analysis: Dole defeated Clinton White House Chief of Staff Erskine Bowles (D) by 9 points, 54 percent to 45 percent in 2002. Dole’s previous bid for elective office had been as a candidate in the 2000 Republican presidential race, which she exited months before the Iowa caucuses. On the basis of their previous races, [Dole does not seem] seem to be [a] prime target. . . . Bowles [was] treated as top-tier candidate who could appeal to ticket-splitters and raise the necessary money to compete. But this time, the Democratic case . . . is based on polling that undoubtedly was intended to recruit challengers against the two Republicans. . . . In the North Carolina race, a February Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group survey for the DSCC showed Dole’s job rating at 49 percent excellent or good and 46 percent fair or poor. Only 35 percent of those surveyed said she should be re-elected, while 23 percent said she should be replaced. So who is vulnerable? Under the right circumstances, Dole might be at risk . . . . Democrats have won the past four gubernatorial elections in North Carolina, and the party last won a Senate seat in 1998. . . . Democrats hold the top offices in North Carolina. . . .Democrats have solid majorities in both chambers of the North Carolina Legislature. Rep. Brad Miller and North Carolina Attorney General Roy Cooper reportedly are considering a challenge to Dole, and Tar Heel State Democrats are in a far stronger position to recruit a candidate against the Republican Senator. . . . Dole isn’t . . . vulnerable until Democrats get a formidable candidate in the race, but if and when they do, the state’s dynamics, at the very least, offer them a scenario for success. North Carolina, therefore, bears watching. . . . This snippet from Cook Political Report is in a similar vein: “I don’t think she is as vulnerable as Democrats think she is,” said Jennifer Duffy, an analyst with the Cook Political Report, a non-partisan newsletter that chronicles nationwide politics and elections. She noted that in recent years North Carolina has tended to vote Republican at the federal level. The state’s military presence also favors Republicans, she said. The Winston-Salem Journal recently published an article mentioning these potential candidates: Aside from Miller, potential candidates against Dole include Attorney General Roy Cooper, Gov. Mike Easley and retired Gen. Hugh Shelton, a former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Valand said. Of the names mentioned as possible opponents, only Miller has expressed an interest. Shelton could not be reached for comment. Easley said earlier this year that he felt that being in the Senate required attending too many meetings, but many Democrats say privately they hope that he changes his mind. Sen. Dole is already raising funds for her reelection bid and is organizing. Democrats, without a first tier candidate, have yet to begin. Not an encouraging sign for a Party committed to recapturing this critical Senate Seat. SAME DAY VOTER REGISTRATION In our continuing coverage of Same Day Voter Registration, we republish this advisory from Democracy NC: Several weeks after the NC House passed Same Day Registration (H-91) by a 66-45 margin; the bill is still languishing in the Senate and is yet to receive a committee vote. Act NOW and tell your Senators we need Same Day in North Carolina. We want HB 91-REGISTRATION & VOTING AT ONE-STOP SITES to be heard in the Senate beginning this week. The bill needs to pass AS WRITTEN. This is a statewide bill – not a bill that has some pilot counties. The entire state is the pilot for democracy. Senate leadership has asked us to be patient and wait until after crossover for them to take up HB 91. Since HB 91 has already “made crossover” by passing the House -- in March, they do not feel any pressure of time. But, we do! Time is of the essence, as this must pass the Senate Committee, the Senate Floor, be signed by the Governor AND be approved by the US Department of Justice pursuant to the Voting Rights Act BEFORE IT CAN BE IMPLEMENTED. Click here to send a message to your NC Senator as well as Senate Majority leader Sen. Tony Rand (D- Cumberland). He controls the movement of legislation. If your Senator asks you a question about the bill that you do not know the answer to, contact us via e-mail at info@democracy-nc.org or call 1-888-OUR-VOTE and we will get you the answer. Michael McDonald, a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution and assistant professor at George Mason University, authored an article in the Washington Post entitled, “5 Myths About Turning Out The Vote.” McDonald notes from his research that the Federal Motor Voter Law has increased voter registration, as predicted, but that the actual increase in voter turnout has been only some 2%. In contrast, his analysis of Same Day Voter Registration (emphasis added): Sizable increases in turnout can be seen in states with Election Day registration, which allows people to register when they vote. This may be related to the fact that lots of people don't make up their minds to vote until Election Day, rather than months in advance when they get a license. There is every reason to believe that increasing voter turnout will benefit the NC Democratic Party. Good citizenship; good politics – it is a rare combination. We urge readers to follow Democracy NC’s advice and call or write your State Senator. _____________________________________________ UPDATED: MAY 12, 2007 A TREND? North Carolina voter registration is a critical component of success for the Democratic Party. In recent history, Democrats have been losing percentage share of voters while Republicans have remain steady and unaffiliated registrations are on the rise. TPJ’s central concerns have been that a) the Democratic Party failed to have a statewide voter registration plan; b) in the current political environment, if Democrats cannot increase voter registration, when do Democrats expect that to happen and c) legislative Democrats have failed to respond to Republican efforts to suppress the right to vote. In a recent TPJ article, we noted a comprehensive study by Alexander Kendall of Stanford University that correlates increased voter turnout to improved Democratic Party performance. Kendall’s compelling conclusions can be summarized briefly: I]increased [voter] turnout significantly benefits Democrats. This effect is consistent across counties of various levels of partisanship. Furthermore, it does not appear to be consistently changing over time. These findings significantly illuminate the theory in regards to voter turnout. . . . [W]hen turnout is increased, newly mobilized voters are disproportionately Democratic. Furthermore, these results illuminate a question that has been claimed to be unanswerable: If one could increase voter turnout, would it help Democrats? We find that the answer to this question is, resoundingly, yes. Translating his findings to political strategies for each political Party, Kendall notes (emphasis added): Democrats should act to increase voter turnout while Republicans should act to suppress turnout. To those ends, both parties have mechanisms they can employ. While both parties are well-served by targeted get-out-the-vote efforts, the Democratic Party is well-served by general efforts to increase voter turnout. To that end, Democrats could support public service announcements and the like, as they would mobilize voters in a non-partisan–and thus pro-Democratic–manner. Furthermore, it is in the Democratic Party’s best interest to lower barriers to voting. To that end, Democrats should work towards reforms such as same-day registration and voting holidays. Republicans face a harder task, as it is hard to imagine a political party overtly opposed to voter turnout. Indeed, if the voters perceive such a stance, voters could very well hold it against the party that holds it. Of course, Republicans do have tools at their disposal to lower voter turnout. In particular, Ansolabehere and Iyengar (1995) have shown that negative advertising demobilizes voters. Thus, it is in the best interests of the Republic Party to get into a negative ad campaign war, as doing so depresses turnout at the Democrats’ expense. The practical applications of Kendall’s findings are obvious. Increasing Democratic Party voter registration provides Democrats a larger base from which to increase voter turnout of core voters. It is that simple – and for Democrats, that complex. First, as of May 5th, of some 5,515,006 registered voters, voter registration is: Democratic, 45.18%; Republican, 34.51%; and Unaffiliated, 20.31%. During the first months of 2007, local Boards of Elections were performing list maintenance procedures; removing voters who have not voted at all for the requisite period from the active rolls. As Democrats have more registered voters, more Democrats were removed from the active rolls than Republicans. Since January, Democrats have a net loss of voter registrations, compared to Republican registrations, of 17,339 voters. However, since the end of list maintenance procedure, Democrats have demonstrated two consecutive months of net gains over Republicans. The chart below displays the results for the April. In March, Democrats had a statewide net gain of +884 registrations over Republicans. In March distribution, Democrats had net gains over Republicans in 36 counties. In April, Democrats had a net gain of +449 registrations over Republicans, smaller than the March gain, but still a gain. In April distribution, Democrats had net gains over Republicans in 39 counties, 3 more counties than in March.
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