UPDATED:  MAY 9, 2007

                        IT IS THIS IMPORTANT 

Same Day Voter Registration (SDR) is important; for the civic politic and for the Democratic Party.  Just how important?  A study conducted by Alexander Kendall of Stanford University states the case in compelling terms.  

Kendall authored a major study of the effect of voter turnout on winning elections, including the potential role of SDR, in 2004 entitled, “The Joke Isn’t on the Democrats? The Partisan Effects of Voter Turnout.”  The study looked at the partisan effects of the effect voter turnout in thousands of precincts in Presidential elections from 1998 through 2000. 

Kendall’s compelling conclusions can be summarized briefly:

Translating his findings to political strategies for each political Party, Kendall notes:

Kendall’s research clearly points to the strategies employed by Karl Rove and the Republican Party – voter suppression.  Several critical points emerge.  Rove and the Bush administration have politicized the US Justice Department over the issue of voter fraud.  Yet, even Bush’s hand chosen US Attorneys have been removed from office when they found no meaningful voter fraud occurring.  

Voter fraud is a critical issue to the Republican Party; not because it exists, but because its specter helps create an atmosphere in which Republicans can advance legislation at the Federal and State level to make it harder for citizens to vote – all in the name of preventing fraud, which does not exist in any meaningful magnitude.  As Kendall adroitly observes, Republicans can not directly oppose increasing voter registration; it is un-American. 

For North Carolina Democrats and citizens who truly care about the civic politic, House Bill 91, establishing a modest and credible SDR plan, has passed the State House.  It should come as no surprise that Republicans largely voted against the measure.  

What is truly amazing is the opposition of “Democratic consultants” at the North Carolina Democratic Party as explained in the article below.  Rove and the Republicans continue to push their strategy of suppressing turnout, with good reason from their perspective.  Senate Democrats, who have a substantial majority with which to pass HB 91, are stalled on the issue.  Democrats are on the verge of missing a rare opportunity to increase voter turnout; good for all the interests of democracy in our State, and help the Democratic Party in the process.

Given Kendall’s findings, rank and file Democrats should be wondering what manner of “consultants” the NC Democratic Party has employed and why Senate Democrats would let this opportunity pass. 

Every Democratic should call or email their State Senator.  It is just that important.

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UPDATED:  MAY 6, 2007

                        AN OPEN LETTER TO SENATOR RAND 

Many Democrats across the State strongly support Same Day Voter Registration (SDR), House Bill 91, which has passed the State House and is now before the Senate. The Senate should pass the bill. 

Paula Wolfe, the coordinator for the NC Coalition for Same Day Registration, recently sent supporters this advisory: 

Sen. Rand, with all due respect for the unnamed Democratic political consultants at the Democratic Party headquarters, their views represent constipated thinking and ensnares the NC Democratic Party in a self-defeating political cycle.  

First, the simple fact is that Democrats are losing in their share of registered voters.  The chart below demonstrates the gradual decline of the Democrats.   

Twenty-five years ago Democrats made up 75 percent of the registered voters. Today, Democrats comprise only 45 percent, while Republicans have gained to 35 percent statewide. The big difference in elections is the growing number of unaffiliated voters over the decade of the 1990s, increasing from 5 percent to 20 percent of registered voters.  

Some might believe that Republicans are still a decided minority compared to Democrats, but such is not the case as a number of conservative Democrats will vote Republican. For example, NCFREE contends that in legislative districts with 35 percent or more registered Republicans, Republicans tend to win; owing victory to the swing vote from unaffiliated voters and some Democrats.   

In 2006, in the sixteen House Districts in which the vote between the candidates was 60% to 40% or less, Democrats secured 168,617 votes and Republicans garnered 155,631 votes.  It was on this small margin of some 13,000 votes that Democrats not only held their majority in the house but picked up four seats.   

In the nine Senate Districts in which the vote was 60% to 40% or less, Democrats won 211,697 votes compared to 198,796 votes for Republican candidates.  It was on this slim margin that Democrats held their majority and picked up three seats net. 

Second, until recently, the same Democratic consultants have eschewed Democratic voter registration efforts.  Amazingly, the State Party did not even set voter registration goals for counties until this year.  While the State Party is calling on local Democrats to organize voter registration efforts, no substantial financial resources have been committed to the effort.  Yet, in three five short months, NC Democrats have, for the past two months, narrowly earned more net voters statewide than Republicans.  One can only wonder what Democrats could really achieve with a modicum of financial support, statewide training of county Parties and a determined commitment to registering voters.  

Michael McDonald , a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution and assistant professor at George Mason University, notes that SDR works: 

There are good reasons to believe that SDR will help NC Democrats.  As for proof of how SDR will impact Democrats, consider the following.  The US Census Bureau projects that there are 831,680 people in North Carolina who are age 18 to 24.  In North Carolina, less than 53% of 18-24 year olds are registered to vote compared to over 80% for adults over 25. 

Youth Voters Strategies, affiliated with George Washington University’s Graduate School of Political Management, states the importance of Democrats investing time and resources to register and activate young voters:

Demonstrable evidence exists from North Carolina reaffirms the YVS’s findings. First, in the 2004 General Election younger voters comprised only 14% of the total vote cast in North Carolina.  Voters in this age group clearly chose to support Kerry over Bush (Kerry +16%).  Careful note should be given to the fact that Bush’s support among younger voters was 7% less than the support among that group in the 2000 General Election.   

One can also correctly surmise that these younger voters supported Democratic Party legislative and other candidates running in their districts.  The eight states that operate same-day-registration experience some of the highest turnout rates in the country. In Minnesota, overall voter turnout was 78% in 2004, and youth turnout was 69%. Wisconsin, Maine, and New Hampshire – all same-day registration states – are not far behind. On average, same-day registration boosts youth voter turnout by 14 percentage points in Presidential elections. Why would the Democratic consultants believe North Carolina would be any different?

More direct evidence from North Carolina supports the proposition that first time voters in 2004 were decidedly Democratic. First time voters in 2004, even as compared to younger voters, are decidedly Democratic:  

Based upon the voting patterns of both the youth vote and first time voters, a good assumption is that the majority of unregistered voters in North Carolina are inclined towards the Democratic Party. 

Certainly, the analysis above does not suggest that the Democratic Party would be harmed by SDR and increasing voter participation should be the moral objective of the Democratic Party.

The Democratic Party consultants’ constipated thinking is emblematic of their shortsighted objectives.  Democratic Party consultants currently have a known base of voters that are relatively predicable.  They design campaigns based upon that predictability.  While NC Democrats have been successful in using that formula, the vote margins on which Democrats currently hold their majorities in both the House and Senate are very slim indeed as noted above.  As a result, the consultants do not desire to build the Party, but devote all of the Party’s resources to communicating with the known pool.

While the strategy has worked, it is self-defeating.  First, as Democratic Party share of registered voters continues to decline, the consultants will advocate moving the Party further to the political right to attract an ever increasing block of independent voters needed to win elections.  As Democrats move to the political right, rank and file Democrats will become more disillusioned, robbing the Party of its stalwart supporters.  Eventually, the talent and energy that drives the Democratic Party will wane.

Second, what organizations, including business organizations, do not create the tools and invest in expansion of their clientele?  The failure to do so is inexcusable.

Consider that the narrow margins on which Democrats have built their majorities in both the House and Senate have come largely during a period the Republican Party has fallen upon hard times.  Political fortunes ebb and flow.  NC Democrats are enjoying success now even as voter registration as a percentage declines.  When the national and State fortunes of the Party run into more troubled waters; as they eventually will, what happens then?  The answer to that question is how responsibly the Party acts now.

SDR is a tool by which Democrats have the opportunity to expand their base.   And, elected Democrats and the Democratic Party should be about registering those voters and working with them to become active voters.  With no meaningful resources, Democrats in a growing number of counties in 2007 have shown what they can do with voter registration.  SDR will help that effort even more.

SDR is not only good politics; most importantly it is about good citizenship, which lies at the heart of our Party.   We ask that you put HB 91 to vote.