archived: 18 - 24 Mar, 2007 Back Next
UPDATED: March 21, 2007
STEELY RESOLVE
Three new polls have been released since our last analysis of Bush’s approval/disapproval ratings; Time/SRBI, Gallup, Newsweek. Bush’s current monthly average, 60.56%, moves above the March closing average, 60.17% (both highlighted in yellow below). Bush’s current approval rating, 33.56%, falls fractionally below his March closing average, 33.67% (both highlighted in blue below). The spread between approval and disapproval is 27%, just the second time in TPJ’s analysis that the spread has achieved this level (highlighted in green below).
The three most current polls confirm that Bush’s approval/disapproval continues to move both up and down within a very narrow range. Bush’s support has not fallen below 33% as Republicans continue to support his performance. Unless Democrats can convince Republicans that Bush does not deserve their support, Bush’s approval/disapproval ratings will continue to move within this narrow range, either up or down.
If Republicans continue to support Bush, the vast majority of Democrats and a solid majority of Independents continue to disapprove of his performance. This pattern of support has largely been static since November 2006. Most simply stated, Bush is stuck and attitudes on both sides seem to have hardened.
This view is supported by the fact that Americans who believe America is headed in the right/wrong direction essentially remains unchanged over the past year. One senses that both sides are looked in a steely resolve over Bush; the question being whether one side can convince the other to move to a different position.
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Newsweek Poll conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International. March 14-16, 2007. N=1,001 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3. |
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"Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States at this time?" |
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Satisfied |
Dissatisfied |
Unsure |
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% |
% |
% |
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3/14-16/07 |
28 |
64 |
8 |
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1/24-25/07 |
30 |
61 |
9 |
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1/17-18/07 |
30 |
62 |
8 |
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12/6-7/06 |
31 |
59 |
10 |
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11/9-10/06 |
29 |
63 |
8 |
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11/2-3/06 |
29 |
64 |
7 |
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10/26-27/06 |
31 |
61 |
8 |
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10/19-20/06 |
25 |
67 |
8 |
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10/5-6/06 |
25 |
67 |
8 |
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8/24-25/06 |
28 |
65 |
7 |
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8/10-11/06 |
26 |
67 |
7 |
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5/11-12/06 |
23 |
71 |
6 |
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3/16-17/06 |
30 |
64 |
6 |
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There are encouraging signs that Bush may falter. As noted in the Guardian Unlimited:
With every unfolding crisis, President Bush is finding fewer allies in his corner. Republicans are ever more nervous about the Iraq war, Attorney General Alberto Gonzales' problems, FBI abuses of the Patriot Act and the botched treatment of war wounded at the Walter Reed Army Medical Center.
As Bush and congressional Democrats clashed on Tuesday over the Gonzales matter, even the Republicans still standing with the president on Iraq were having a hard time supporting him on domestic measures, reluctant to take stands that could be used against them politically. In fact, supporting the president on Iraq may be making it easier for them to oppose him on other measures unpopular with their constituents.
``I think Republicans are in a very awkward position of having to defend a number of indefensible acts,'' said GOP strategist Scott Reed. ``It's causing them to move into the every-man-for-himself mode.''
These have not been good days for the administration. The Senate voted 94-2 on Tuesday to end Gonzales' authority to fill U.S. attorney vacancies without Senate confirmation. The House is to vote this week on a war spending bill that would effectively withdraw U.S. combat troops by fall 2008. Competing threats of presidential vetoes and congressional subpoenas fill the air.
More and more, there's less Bush can do to reward Republicans for backing him - or punish those who don't.
The cracks in Congressional support are point to the goal of Republican citizens peeling away from Bush.
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Approve |
Trail Mo |
Disapprove |
No Opinion |
Spread |
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2007 |
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Newsweek |
3/14 - 16/07 |
30 |
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60 |
10 |
-30 |
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Gallup |
3/11 - 14/07 |
35 |
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61 |
4 |
-26 |
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Time/SRBI |
3/9 - 12/07 |
32 |
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61 |
7 |
-29 |
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CBS |
3/9 - 11/07 |
34 |
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58 |
8 |
-24 |
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CNN/ORC |
3/9-11/07 |
37 |
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56 |
7 |
-19 |
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AP-Ipsos |
3/5-7/07 |
35 |
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65 |
0 |
-30 |
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NBC/WSJ |
3/2-5/07 |
35 |
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60 |
5 |
-25 |
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USA Today/Gallup |
3/2-4/07 |
33 |
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63 |
4 |
-30 |
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Newsweek |
2/28 - 3/1/07 |
31 |
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61 |
8 |
-30 |
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March Avg |
33.56 |
-0.11 |
60.56 |
5.89 |
-27.00 |
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February Avg |
33.67 |
-0.22 |
60.17 |
6.08 |
-26.50 |
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January Avg |
33.89 |
-1.61 |
61.61 |
4.83 |
-27.72 |
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2006 |
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December Avg |
35.50 |
-0.93 |
59.25 |
5.42 |
-23.75 |
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November Avg |
36.43 |
-1.07 |
58.00 |
5.50 |
-21.57 |
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October Avg |
37.50 |
-3.42 |
57.11 |
5.36 |
-19.61 |
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September Avg |
40.92 |
2.64 |
54.23 |
4.77 |
-13.31 |
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August Avg |
38.29 |
0.59 |
57.14 |
4.64 |
-18.86 |
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July Avg |
37.70 |
0.49 |
56.40 |
5.90 |
-18.70 |
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June Avg |
37.21 |
3.05 |
56.79 |
5.93 |
-19.57 |
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May Avg |
34.17 |
-1.58 |
60.33 |
5.91 |
-26.17 |
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April Avg |
35.75 |
-1.35 |
57.75 |
6.82 |
-22.00 |
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March Avg |
37.10 |
-2.54 |
57.30 |
5.80 |
-20.20 |
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February Avg |
39.64 |
-2.42 |
55.21 |
5.23 |
-15.57 |
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