archived: 11 - 17 Mar, 2007 Back Next
UPDATED: March 14, 2007
BAD NEWS BUSH
Two new polls have been released since TPJ’s last report; CNN/ORC and CBS. In what may appear a surprise to many, Bush gets a fractional bounce, one-half of a percent, in his monthly “approval” average.
With all of the horrid news coming emanating from Washington; Libby conviction, housing market collapse, political firing of Federal prosecutors, etc. one might ask how Bush’s poll numbers would go up at all. There appears to be a relatively simple answer – Republicans are circling the wagons to come to Bush’s defense. CBS found:
The increase is due almost entirely to an uptick in approval among Republicans; 75 percent now approve, up from 65 percent last month.
In our estimation, the Republican base is simply rallying around their President who is under considerable political attack. A few more polls will confirm that hypothesis. As Bush’s fractional uptick in recent polls is limited to the Republican base, we perceive that no meaningful forward movement will occur in Bush’s averages over the coming weeks.
The biggest threat to Bush’s approval ratings is the economy. On specific issues, CBS’s poll results have only two issues on which Bush’s “issue approval” exceeds his general “approval” rating; Terrorism, Economy and Abortion:
Now 2/2007 1/2007
Terrorism 45%
40% 42%
Economy 38% 35% 37%
Foreign policy 32% 25% 26%
Iraq 28% 23% 24%
Taxes 42%
Federal budget deficit 29%
Abortion 37%
As the American economy falters, Bush’s poll numbers may well sustain, in relative terms, a significant decline. Over a million Americans are expected to lose their homes to foreclosure over this year, and event that will not only have significant impact on the economy, but on the political mood of most Americans.
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Approve |
Trail Mo |
Disapprove |
No Opinion |
Spread |
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2007 |
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CBS |
3/9 - 11/07 |
34 |
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58 |
8 |
-24 |
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CNN/ORC |
3/9-11/07 |
37 |
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56 |
7 |
-19 |
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AP-Ipsos |
3/5-7/07 |
35 |
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65 |
0 |
-30 |
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NBC/WSJ |
3/2-5/07 |
35 |
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60 |
5 |
-25 |
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USA Today/Gallup |
3/2-4/07 |
33 |
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63 |
4 |
-30 |
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Newsweek |
2/28 - 3/1/07 |
31 |
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61 |
8 |
-30 |
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March Avg |
34.17 |
0.50 |
60.50 |
5.33 |
-26.33 |
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February Avg |
33.67 |
-0.22 |
60.17 |
6.08 |
-26.50 |
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January Avg |
33.89 |
-1.61 |
61.61 |
4.83 |
-27.72 |
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2006 |
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December Avg |
35.50 |
-0.93 |
59.25 |
5.42 |
-23.75 |
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November Avg |
36.43 |
-1.07 |
58.00 |
5.50 |
-21.57 |
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October Avg |
37.50 |
-3.42 |
57.11 |
5.36 |
-19.61 |
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September Avg |
40.92 |
2.64 |
54.23 |
4.77 |
-13.31 |
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August Avg |
38.29 |
0.59 |
57.14 |
4.64 |
-18.86 |
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July Avg |
37.70 |
0.49 |
56.40 |
5.90 |
-18.70 |
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June Avg |
37.21 |
3.05 |
56.79 |
5.93 |
-19.57 |
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May Avg |
34.17 |
-1.58 |
60.33 |
5.91 |
-26.17 |
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April Avg |
35.75 |
-1.35 |
57.75 |
6.82 |
-22.00 |
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March Avg |
37.10 |
-2.54 |
57.30 |
5.80 |
-20.20 |
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February Avg |
39.64 |
-2.42 |
55.21 |
5.23 |
-15.57 |
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January Avg |
42.07 |
1.32 |
53.27 |
5.07 |
-11.20 |
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2005 |
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December Avg |
40.75 |
2.83 |
54.25 |
6.33 |
-13.50 |
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November Avg |
37.92 |
-1.93 |
56.46 |
6.09 |
-18.54 |
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October Avg |
39.86 |
-1.46 |
55.07 |
5.58 |
-15.21 |
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September Avg |
41.31 |
-1.91 |
53.75 |
4.81 |
-12.44 |
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August Avg |
43.22 |
-2.38 |
52.33 |
4.33 |
-9.11 |
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July Avg |
45.60 |
0.60 |
49.00 |
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