UPDATED: JUN 20, 2007
A POX – UPDATED
Since TPJ’s article, A POX – ON BOTH OUR HOUSES, a Democracy Corps poll has been published that reinforces the need for Democrats to chart new a new, expanded direction.
Democracy Corps polled 70 Congressional Districts it believes are critical to the 2008 election cycle. Democracy Corps concludes that the playing field is developing favorably for Democrats. Yet, Americans are concerned over gridlock on a number of important issues. Democracy Corps highlights these findings (emphasis added):
In order to address other elements of the structure, Democrats need bursts of activity and progress on issues that show they are part of the change, not the problem. Despite the initial strong reaction to the ‘100 hours,’ the public now sees little progress since the new Democratic majority was sworn in and a majority say Democrats have not followed through with their campaign promises. On the specifics of ‘6 for 06,’ voters see virtually nothing happening. Surprisingly, half know a rise in the minimum wage has become law; there is awareness that Democrats have engaged with the President on Iraq and stem cell. Everything else is invisible.
Two particular survey questions are telling in TPJ’s opinion. Democracy Corps asked respondents to choose between these two statements:
Democrats have made progress on the actions they pledged to take if they took control of Congress.
OR
Democrats have not made progress on the actions they pledged to take if they took control of Congress
The response: 37% chose the first statement and an astounding 56% chose the second statement. Of the 56% who believe Democrats are not making process on their agenda, Democracy Corps asked the following question:
(IF NO PROGRESS IN Q.52) Whom do you think is mainly to blame for the lack of progress: George Bush and the Republicans in Congress or Democrats in Congress?
Total
George Bush and the Republicans in Congress ........................ 33
Democrats in Congress........................................................... 52
(All) ...................................................................................... 10
(Other) .................................................................................... 1
(Don't know/refused) ................................................................. 4
George Bush/Republicans - Democrats.................................-20
In sum, Democrats are being held accountable for the lack progress on policy issues. The public attitudes represented in these two questions are, in TPJ’s estimation, the greatest threat for the Democratic Party.
Obviously, Congressional Democrats must advance an agenda other than ending the war in Iraq. The recent spate of Congressional investigations and hearings are reasonable and necessary. Yet, Congressional investigations and hearings are consuming public attention rather than the policy agenda that the Democrats have and should be advancing. For example, slightly less than 50% of Americans actually know that Democrats passed a minimum wage increase that is now law.
Given these poll findings, the effort by some Democrats to impeach Bush and/or Cheney, which has no chance of success, represents another potential distraction from the expectations of the American public. Democrats need to be advancing legislation that addresses the problems that hard working Americans face each day.
Dr. Steve Jonas, TPJ’s Contributing Author, offers an insightful article with a more complete analysis of the Democratic Party’s predicament and a fuller prescription for what Democrats should be about in his column today. It is a must read for every Democrat.
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UPDATED: JUN 17, 2007A POX – ON BOTH OUR HOUSES
The national mood is grim.
Americans who believe the United States is headed in the “wrong direction” has grown to new highs, while those who believe the United States is headed in the “right” direction has reached new lows. Two recent polls demonstrate the fact:
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NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll
conducted by the
polling organizations of Peter Hart (D) and Neil Newhouse (R).
June 8-11, 2007. N=1,008 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3.1. |
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"All in all, do you think things in the nation are generally headed in the right direction, or do you feel that things are off on the wrong track?" |
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Right |
Wrong |
Mixed |
Unsure |
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% |
% |
% |
% |
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6/8-11/07 |
19 |
68 |
11 |
2 |
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4/20-23/07 |
22 |
66 |
12 |
- |
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3/2-5/07 |
25 |
58 |
14 |
3 |
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1/17-20/07 |
28 |
57 |
13 |
2 |
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Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg Poll. June 7-10, 2007. N=1,183 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3. RV = registered voters. LV = likely voters.
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"Do you think things in this country are generally going in the right direction or are they seriously off on the wrong track?" |
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Right |
Wrong |
Unsure |
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% |
% |
% |
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6/7-10/07 |
24 |
69 |
7 |
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4/5-9/07 |
25 |
66 |
9 |
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1/13-16/07 |
31 |
61 |
8 |
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With the plummeting national mood, Bush’s poll numbers sink. Since TPJ’s last report on Thursday, two new polls released; NBC/Wall Street Journal (“NBC”) and Quinnipiac, have Bush’s approval ratings below 30%. While these are not the first polls finding Bush’s approval ratings in the 20% range, they are the first that do not appear to be statistical aberrations (“outliers”). For the first time during Bush’s administration, three reputable polling firms have Bush in the 20% range in the same month. We conclude that after months of horrid approval ratings stuck between 33% to 35% Bush’s
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Approve |
Trail Mo |
Disapprove |
No Opinion |
Spread |
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2007 |
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NBC/Wall Street Journal |
6/8-11/07 |
29 |
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66 |
5 |
-37 |
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Quinnipiac RV |
6/5-11/07 |
28 |
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65 |
7 |
-37 |
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L.A. Times/Bloomberg |
6/7-10/07 |
34 |
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62 |
4 |
-28 |
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FOX/Opinion Dynamics RV |
6/5-6/07 |
34 |
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57 |
9 |
-23 |
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AP-Ipsos |
6/4-6/07 |
32 |
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66 |
2 |
-34 |
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USA Today/Gallup |
6/1-3/07 |
32 |
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62 |
6 |
-30 |
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Pew |
5/30 - 6/3/07 |
29 |
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61 |
10 |
-32 |
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ABC/Washington Post |
5/29 - 6/1/07 |
35 |
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62 |
3 |
-27 |
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June Avg |
31.63 |
-1.60 |
62.63 |
5.75 |
-31.00 |
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May Avg |
33.22 |
-1.70 |
61.33 |
5.56 |
-28.11 |
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April Avg |
34.92 |
1.49 |
59.92 |
5.15 |
-25.00 |
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March Avg |
33.43 |
-0.24 |
60.43 |
6.14 |
-27.00 |
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February Avg |
33.67 |
-0.22 |
60.17 |
6.08 |
-26.50 |
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January Avg |
33.89 |
-1.61 |
61.61 |
4.83 |
-27.72 |
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2006 |
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December Avg |
35.50 |
-0.93 |
59.25 |
5.42 |
-23.75 |
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November Avg |
36.43 |
-1.07 |
58.00 |
5.50 |
-21.57 |
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October Avg |
37.50 |
-3.42 |
57.11 |
5.36 |
-19.61 |
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September Avg |
40.92 |
2.64 |
54.23 |
4.77 |
-13.31 |
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August Avg |
38.29 |
0.59 |
57.14 |
4.64 |
-18.86 |
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July Avg |
37.70 |
0.49 |
56.40 |
5.90 |
-18.70 |
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June Avg |
37.21 |
3.05 |
56.79 |
5.93 |
-19.57 |
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May Avg |
34.17 |
-1.58 |
60.33 |
5.91 |
-26.17 |
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April Avg |
35.75 |
-1.35 |
57.75 |
6.82 |
-22.00 |
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