UPDATED: JUN 6, 2007
BREAKDOWN?
Three new polls open June and the June averages suggest that Bush’s approval rating is dropping following five months of relative stability between 33% and 35%. Bush’s approval rating is 32% (highlighted in yellow below), the lowest average approval rating that TPJ has recorded. Pew joins the list of polling firms that have recorded Bush’s approval rating below 30% (highlighted in blue below).
While Bush’s approval rating is down from the May average, Bush’s disapproval rating edged up slightly. The gain in “no opinion” exceeds the increase in those who disapprove of Bush’s performance in office by some ˝%.
One fact is clearly evident however. Over the past 29 months Bush’s approval rating from one month to the next has risen only seven times (highlighted in grey).
The pattern of falling approval rating with a rise is “no opinion” is a pattern that has occurred several times over the past two years. And, it is clearly demonstrated in the three new polls below. Carefully notice that the higher the percentage of “no opinion” the lower the approval rating and conversely the lower percentage of those with “no opinion,” the higher Bush’s approval rating. Some polling firms “push” respondents who are equivocal to either approve or disapprove, while some firms do not. There are obviously members of the Republican base that are quite equivocal.
In TPJ’s estimation, Bush’s approval rating is down as his Republican base grows more discontented. The uber right; for example, Newt Gingrich, have been attacking Bush for weeks. Bush’s bipartisan immigration reform proposal is not popular within segments of the Republican Party. The impression from the numbers below is that Bush’s base, while not “disapproving” of their President yet, are clearly wavering.
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TPJ'S BUSH WATCH |
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Approve |
Trail Mo |
Disapprove |
No Opinion |
Spread |
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2007 |
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USA Today/Gallup |
6/1-3/07 |
32 |
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62 |
6 |
-30 |
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Pew |
5/30 - 6/3/07 |
29 |
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61 |
10 |
-32 |
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ABC/Washington Post |
5/29 - 6/1/07 |
35 |
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62 |
3 |
-27 |
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June Avg |
32.00 |
-1.22 |
61.67 |
6.33 |
-29.67 |
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May Avg |
33.22 |
-1.70 |
61.33 |
5.56 |
-28.11 |
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April Avg |
34.92 |
1.49 |
59.92 |
5.15 |
-25.00 |
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March Avg |
33.43 |
-0.24 |
60.43 |
6.14 |
-27.00 |
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February Avg |
33.67 |
-0.22 |
60.17 |
6.08 |
-26.50 |
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January Avg |
33.89 |
-1.61 |
61.61 |
4.83 |
-27.72 |
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2006 |
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December Avg |
35.50 |
-0.93 |
59.25 |
5.42 |
-23.75 |
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November Avg |
36.43 |
-1.07 |
58.00 |
5.50 |
-21.57 |
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October Avg |
37.50 |
-3.42 |
57.11 |
5.36 |
-19.61 |
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September Avg |
40.92 |
2.64 |
54.23 |
4.77 |
-13.31 |
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August Avg |
38.29 |
0.59 |
57.14 |
4.64 |
-18.86 |
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July Avg |
37.70 |
0.49 |
56.40 |
5.90 |
-18.70 |
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June Avg |
37.21 |
3.05 |
56.79 |
5.93 |
-19.57 |
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May Avg |
34.17 |
-1.58 |
60.33 |
5.91 |
-26.17 |
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April Avg |
35.75 |
-1.35 |
57.75 |
6.82 |
-22.00 |
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March Avg |
37.10 |
-2.54 |
57.30 |
5.80 |
-20.20 |
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February Avg |
39.64 |
-2.42 |
55.21 |
5.23 |
-15.57 |
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January Avg |
42.07 |
1.32 |
53.27 |
5.07 |
-11.20 |
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2005 |
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December Avg |
40.75 |
2.83 |
54.25 |
6.33 |
-13.50 |
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November Avg |
37.92 |
-1.93 |
56.46 |
6.09 |
-18.54 |
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October Avg |
39.86 |
-1.46 |
55.07 |
5.58 |
-15.21 |
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September Avg |
41.31 |
-1.91 |
53.75 |
4.81 |
-12.44 |
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August Avg |
43.22 |
-2.38 |
52.33 |
4.33 |
-9.11 |
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July Avg |
45.60 |
0.60 |
49.00 |
5.30 |
-3.40 |
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June Avg |
45.00 |
-1.50 |
49.83 |
5.33 |
-4.83 |
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May Avg |
46.50 |
-1.10 |
48.33 |
5.17 |
-1.83 |
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