Them Dems

For months, Bush’s approval rating held steady based upon his support from the Republican base. All of the polling numbers reflect that Bush is losing large segments of his Party’s base. The last CBS poll [June 26-28, 2007. N=836 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3 (for all adults). LV = likely voters] documented the point. Bush is holding only two thirds of Republicans and that number appears to be falling.

Bush’s recent fall is real and increasing. How low can Bush’s numbers fall? No one knows the answer to that question, but the polls released over the next three weeks should be fascinating. While TPJ readers await more polls, Frank Newport at Gallup has an article detailing Bush’s 60% fall in the polls since 9/11. It is a must read.

TPJ'S BUSH WATCH
TPJ'S BUSH WATCH
		Approve	Trail Mo	Disapprove	No Opinion	Spread

	2007

USA Today/Gallup	7/6-8/07	29		66	5	-37
Newsweek	7/2-3/07	26		65	9	-39


	July Avg	27.50	-3.35	65.50	7.00	-38.00

	June Avg	30.85	-2.38	63.23	6.00	-32.38
	May Avg	33.22	-1.70	61.33	5.56	-28.11
	April Avg	34.92	1.49	59.92	5.15	-25.00
	March Avg	33.43	-0.24	60.43	6.14	-27.00
	February Avg	33.67	-0.22	60.17	6.08	-26.50
	January Avg	33.89	-1.61	61.61	4.83	-27.72

	2006
	December Avg	35.50	-0.93	59.25	5.42	-23.75
	November Avg	36.43	-1.07	58.00	5.50	-21.57
	October Avg	37.50	-3.42	57.11	5.36	-19.61
	September Avg	40.92	2.64	54.23	4.77	-13.31
	August Avg	38.29	0.59	57.14	4.64	-18.86
	July Avg	37.70	0.49	56.40	5.90	-18.70
	June Avg	37.21	3.05	56.79	5.93	-19.57
	May Avg	34.17	-1.58	60.33	5.91	-26.17
	April Avg	35.75	-1.35	57.75	6.82	-22.00
	March Avg	37.10	-2.54	57.30	5.80	-20.20
	February Avg	39.64	-2.42	55.21

TPJ’s average of Bush’s approval rating from publicly released polls has plummeted into the 20% range (27.50%) for the first time. Both Newsweek and USA Today/Gallup record Bush’s approval rating under 30%. The July Newsweek poll represents no change from its previous poll in June. USA Today/Gallup’s July approval rating represents another significant drop in approval ratings. The chart below summarizes all Gallup and USA Today/Gallup polls since January 2007. The overall trend has been down since January; but note in particular that Bush’s descent has been pronounced (-9%) since April 5^th and down in every successive poll save the June 3^rd to June 14^th polls in which Bush’s approval remained even. Equally encouraging is the fact that Bush’s -3.35% loss in approval since the final June average, his disapproval rating has crossed 65%. Over the past two years, Bush’s approval rating has fallen on occasion with a rising “unsure” or “no opinion” response in the polls while disapproval remained flat or only marginally increased. Carefully note that since April, Bush’s disapproval rating in the Gallup and USA Today/Gallup polls below has risen from 58% to 66% (+8%). This is only 1% less than the decline in approval during the same period.

"Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president?"

		Approve	Disapprove	Unsure
		%	%	%	N
	7/6-8/07	29	66	5	1,014
	6/11-14/07	32	65	3	1,007
	6/1-3/07	32	62	6	1,007
	5/10-13/07	33	62	5	1,003
	5/4-6/07	34	63	3	1,010
	4/13-15/07	36	60	4	1,007
	4/2-5/07	38	58	4	1,008
	3/23-25/07	34	62	4	1,007
	3/11-14/07	35	61	4	1,009
	3/2-4/07	33	63	4	1,010
	2/9-11/07	37	59	3	1,006
	2/1-4/07	32	65	4	1,007
	1/15-18/07	36	61	3	1,018
	1/12-14/07	34	63	4	1,003
	1/5-7/07	37	59	4	1,004


"Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president?"
.
		Approve	Disapprove	Unsure
		%	%	%
	ALL adults	27	65	8
	Republicans	66	23	11
	Democrats	8	88	4
	Independents	18	71	11