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archived:
11 - 14 Jul, 2007
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Next UPDATED: JUL 11, 2007 A PASS? NC Democrats have been unable to recruit a first tier candidate to challenge Sen. Dole. Some Democratic consultants are advocating giving Sen. Dole a “pass” to reelection. Outgoing Gov. Mike Easley insists he's not interested. Beverly Perdue and Richard Moore are busy preparing to run for Easley's job. Attorney General Roy Cooper and Rep. Brad Miller are happy with their current gigs. So much for wondering which A-list candidate will run next year against incumbent GOP Sen. Elizabeth Dole. At this point, the better question might be whether she'll face any substantive challenge at all. Or whether the state's Democrats should even bother. "Give her a pass," said Democratic consultant Brad Crone, who works largely on legislative and races for state office. "My recommendation would be not to put a lot of time, effort and energy on the United States Senate race." Some Democrats point to polls showing that Dole is vulnerable, in part because of her continued support for President Bush's Iraq war policy and poor showing raising money for GOP Senate candidates in 2006. Dole is often mentioned as a Democratic target for takeover in 2008. But Crone said his party should instead focus on keeping control of the governor's mansion and General Assembly or further increasing its hold on the state's U.S. House delegation. It also may not be a stretch, if Republican problems persist nationally, to aim for pushing North Carolina's 15 electoral votes for president into the Democratic column. While Republicans would surely take an easy re-election for Dole, the GOP also stands to benefit from a reputable Democratic challenger who spends millions to run against Dole but ultimately fails to knock her from office. That would siphon away money from other Democratic candidates. A strong run from Dole should also help bring independent voters to the polls in a presidential election year, one veteran GOP operative said. "Actually, all things considered, it probably helps all Republicans" for Dole to have a challenger, said former state GOP chief of staff Bill Peaslee. "Mrs. Dole brings a group of people, and she tracks them to the Republican Party." Last month, Miller decided against running for Dole's seat. The three-term congressman from Raleigh said taking on Dole "would've turned my life upside down, my family's life upside down and my friends' lives upside down." Running for Senate would have required making a steady stream of calls and attending dozens of fundraising events in order to raise the nearly $1 million a month through November 2008 needed to match Dole's expected fundraising. Her campaign spent $13.7 million during her 2002 election campaign. Democrat Erskine Bowles spent nearly as much, and still lost by 9 percentage points. "Any Democrat who gets in the race at this point is going to have to raise $50,000 a day, and that's a real tall task," Crone said. He suggests that the party consider recruiting a candidate whose main task would be "keeping her pinned down" and on the defensive, but with the understanding that a victory would be unlikely. VOTER REGISTRATION Today, TPJ returns to our analysis of voter registration in North Carolina. In May 2007, Democrats again lost ground to Republicans in “net voter registrations.” For the month, the loss was small; -861. For the year, the loss is larger; -18,200. The May results are disappointing, as Democrats had one of its few monthly net gains in April. It is important to understand that TPJ measures “net voter registrations.” Every month, new voters register throughout North Carolina; but people also move, die or change registration. In addition, counties remove voters from the “active” list of voters when they have not voted in the last two Federal Elections. For example, note that Wake County removed some 12,000 voters as a result of their list maintenance procedures. Unfortunately for Democrats, there were more Democrats than Republicans who had not maintained the requirements to stay on the active voter lists. TPJ tracks the effects of both new voter registrations and the loss of voters that naturally occurs. We have noted in previous reports, that Democrats have bested Republicans in new voter registrations in 2007. However, it is obvious that Statewide, Democrats lost enough voters to more than offset its advantage in new registrations. Our view of voter registration is long term, not short term. We believe that in viewing the long term health and vitality of the Democratic Party that tracking net registrations more accurately gauges our Party’s performance. The following points are significant: 1. Democrats had net gains in voter registration in 46 counties. While this number is less than half of the counties in the State, it is an improvement over previous months. 2. In contrast, Republicans had net gains in 56 counties. While this number is more than half of the counties, it is down from previous reports. 3. If Wake County is removed from consideration, the Republican advantage in net registrations would have fallen to a mere 192 registrations statewide during May The momentum of both Parties appears to be at relative equilibrium; at least for the moment. We continue to hold the view, however, that given the horrid state of the Republican Party that being at relative equilibrium is not the standard of success the Democratic Party would like to achieve. From previous months, Independent registration is growing and increasing its share of North Carolina voters. It begs the question of why the Democratic Party “brand” is not attracting more adherents.
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