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Tumble Weed (Bush) Watch 

archived: 2 - 8 Dec, 2007         Back                 Next

UPDATED:  DEC 5, 2007

                        BUSH’S ECONOMY 

America’s economic woes continue to grow under Republican leadership.  There is growing evidence of recession; possibly stagflation.   

Consider these critical facts: 

Foreclosures                  

Uncertainty about the extent of future [mortgage] losses has hammered the stock market and tightened credit for businesses as the economy shows signs of slowing. In many areas foreclosures are adding inventory to an already-glutted housing market. As consumers watch home prices slump and their equity melt away, some economists fear the housing recession could spill over to the broader economy.  

“The housing recession, which is continuing and probably will get worse, has not spread to consumption yet," said Sung Won Sohn, an economist and president of Hanmi Bank. "But I think it's only a matter of time.”  

Homeowners facing higher rates on their adjustable mortgages have reason to be concerned.  Over the next four years, some $1.5 trillion in mortgages are scheduled to reset, according to an analysis by Credit Suisse.

            Corporate Profits 

U.S. corporate profits are in a recession, and the entire economy might not be far behind. 

Slower sales and higher costs for energy and labor are forcing companies like Bear Stearns and Pitney Bowes to reduce spending and hiring. Their efforts to keep earnings from eroding even further raise the risk that the U.S. economy, already weakened by the steepest housing slide since 1991, could shrink sometime next year. 

"The earnings recession has already arrived," said David Rosenberg, North America economist in New York for Merrill Lynch. "We are going to see an economic recession in '08." 

Corporate profits, as measured by the Commerce Department, fell at an annual rate of $19.3 billion in the third quarter from the second, as domestic earnings dropped by $41.2 billion. 

The fourth quarter may be an even bigger bust.

            Federal Debt 

Like a ticking time bomb, the national debt is an explosion waiting to happen. It's expanding by about $1.4 billion a day — or nearly $1 million a minute.  

What's that mean to you? 

It means almost $30,000 in debt for each man, woman, child and infant in the United States. 

Even if you've escaped the recent housing and credit crunches and are coping with rising fuel prices, you may still be headed for economic misery, along with the rest of the country. That's because the government is fast straining resources needed to meet interest payments on the national debt, which stands at a mind-numbing $9.13 trillion. 

And like homeowners who took out adjustable-rate mortgages, the government faces the prospect of seeing this debt — now at relatively low interest rates — rolling over to higher rates, multiplying the financial pain. 

So long as somebody is willing to keep loaning the U.S. government money, the debt is largely out of sight, out of mind. 

But the interest payments keep compounding, and could in time squeeze out most other government spending — leading to sharply higher taxes or a cut in basic services like Social Security and other government benefit programs.  

Or all of the above.      

If one knew nothing more than these facts, one would conclude that the economy being described is in trouble.  It is!

Larger scale layoffs are already starting:

            Dow Chemical announces the layoff of 1,000 workers.

            Delta announces cost cutting without revealing the number of jobs it will cut.

Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase & Co., Bear Stearns, Citigroup Inc., Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and Morgan Stanley have announced some 25,000 job cuts so far this year. Gustavo Dolfino, president of New York executive-search firm Whiterock Group LLC, said in a Nov. 20 interview he expects them to fire thousands more. Claims for unemployment benefits jumped to a nine-month high in the week ended Nov. 24.

For Bush and the Republicans, all of this is simply the natural forces of the free markets and the markets can be trusted to “correct” themselves over time.

The only question is how many Americans will lose their jobs and how many families will be financially ruined.

                        UNRESERVED

The US Dollar continues to lose value against all major world currencies. 

A great number of stories are appearing that if the US Dollar continues to fall that it will lose its status as the world’s premiere reserve currency.  Peter Grier explains:

For over half a century, the US dollar has been the preeminent form of legal tender in the world. Much of today's global trade is priced in dollars, even if the item in question isn't being sold or bought by a US firm. Most of the foreign exchange held by national central banks is dollars — not British pounds, Chinese renminbi, or Japanese yen.

But in recent months, the king of currencies has taken it on the chin. Since August the dollar has shrunk about 6 percent in value, measured against an assortment of its fellows. Perhaps more important, it may be losing cachet overseas: Tourists can no longer pay in dollars to enter the Taj Mahal and other Indian national landmarks, for instance.

Is the dollar set to lose its top status and the national financial advantages that entails? . . .

"We are vulnerable. But it is not going to happen overnight, and we really have to see the euro establish itself as a safe haven currency," says William Silber, a professor of finance at New York University and author of a book on America's monetary supremacy.

Financial professionals call the world's leading monetary unit the "global reserve currency." It's a currency that bankers and industries around the world are willing to take in return for other currencies, or products. . . .

Thus the dollar's future as world reserve currency crucially depends on the performance of the US economy and America's own policies.  . . .

In the medium term, if the US continues to run huge trade deficits by buying up OPEC oil and Chinese manufactured goods without increasing exports in return, world bankers may think seriously about their options. Enter the euro.

The US Dollar is on the path to losing its status as the world’s reserve currency.  Bush and the Republicans have done nothing to defend the US Dollar.  You will pay the price for that failure; higher gasoline prices and higher prices for all the goods that the US imports.

Question for Americans: had enough?

                        HIDING THEIR SPOTS?

Reproductive rights has served as a Republican “wedge” issue for years; but that may be coming to an end as Republicans move on to other “wedge” issues.

In Kansas, the bedrock State of Republican efforts to close clinics that perform abortions, the Republican Party tells its radical members they are moving on to other issues:

 It would seem an ideal time for Kansas politicians opposed to abortion to push that agenda, hard. The state's two biggest clinics are under criminal indictment, and two grand juries will soon convene to consider additional charges.

But as the political season revs up, the executive director of the Kansas Republican Party has issued a stern warning to his fellow conservatives: Abortion is not a winning issue.

This is not something that the Kansas GOP is going to go out and lead on," Christian Morgan said.

Morgan said that he and his party remain firmly opposed to abortion. Most Republican voters in Kansas feel the same, he said. But Morgan also believes that those voters are fed up with years of fruitless political and legal maneuvering aimed at driving abortion clinics out of business. They would much prefer to see an all-out focus on curbing illegal immigration or cutting taxes, he said.

And, it is just not the Kansas Republican Party.  This analysis appeared in conjunction with the upcoming special election for Congress underway in Virginia:

Ten years ago, politicians were largely defined by their stance on the controversial wedge issue of abortion. Today, candidates rarely even talk about it.

This fall, the most-watched race on the Peninsula was Republican Tricia Stall and Democrat John Miller battling it out for a state Senate seat.

If you're in the district, you probably got a mailbox-full of their glossy fliers and spotted a few television advertisements, even if you only walked by a television set. Anybody remember them talking about abortion?

You probably heard quite a bit about illegal immigration, though, huh?

Are Republicans abandoning their position?  Hardly.  Republicans are simply exercising their mercurial strategy of playing the politics of anger and hatred.  Immigration has simply become a potentially greater “wedge” issue than abortion.  Ergo, Republican drop the Christian radical right as a premier “wedge” issue for, hopefully, even bigger rewards.

Is this a political Party deserving of support?

_____________________________________________

UPDATED:  NOV  29, 2007

                        COALITION DEFEAT 

Australian citizens unceremoniously dump (emphasis added) Bush’s closest remaining ally in the coalition of the willing, now former Prime Minister John Howard: 

Australia's new leader Kevin Rudd vowed Sunday to tackle climate change and Iraq war policy, a day after sweeping veteran prime minister John Howard from power in a stunning election landslide. 

Rudd pledged to implement his campaign promises as a new era dawned for Australia after Saturday's poll ended nearly 12 years of conservative rule by US President George W. Bush's closest remaining ally in the war in Iraq. 

Voters abandoned Howard, 68, who presided over a record economic boom and became Australia's second longest-serving leader, in a humiliating drubbing in which he is also likely to suffer the indignity of losing his parliamentary seat of 33 years. 

As the campaign hubris dissipated, Rudd, 50, said his centre-left Labor Party would immediately begin work on fulfilling campaign pledges, which included tackling global warming and withdrawing combat troops from Iraq.    

Blair is gone in Britain and Howard is removed in Australia.  America is left largely alone in Iraq.  

The message for Americans who want change is simple – elect Democrats to power in 2008. 

REPUBLICAN JUDGMENT

Retiring Republican US Senator Chuck Hagel sums up the Bush administration: 

"This is one of the most arrogant, incompetent administrations I've ever seen personally or ever read about," the always blunt and frequently quotable Sen. Chuck Hagel, R-Neb., said yesterday during an appearance at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York.

"This administration in my opinion has been as unprepared as any administration I'm aware of," Hagel added, "not only the ones that I have been somehow connected to and that's been every administration -- either I've been in Washington or worked within an administration or Congress or some way dealing with them since the first Nixon administration. I would rate this one the lowest in capacity, in capability, in policy, in consensus -- almost every area, I would give it the lowest grade. ... 

"And you know, I think of this administration, what they could have done after 9/11, what was within their grasp. Every poll in the world showed 90% of the world for us. Iran had some of the first spontaneous demonstrations on the streets of Tehran supporting America. They squandered a tremendous amount of opportunity."

Question for Americans: had enough?

                        MOUTH, NO MONEY

Bush and the Republican leadership have incessantly warned Americans of the threat of terrorists to the United States.  At US Airports, the alert level remains at Orange.

Inexplicably, Bush’s Homeland Security budget for 2009 proposes massive cuts in spending (emphasis added):

The Bush administration intends to slash counterterrorism funding for police, firefighters and rescue departments across the country by more than half next year, according to budget documents obtained by The Associated Press.

The Homeland Security Department has given $23 billion to states and local communities to fight terrorism since the Sept. 11 attacks, but one document says the administration is not convinced that the money has been well spent and thinks the nation's highest-risk cities have largely satisfied their security needs.

The department wanted to provide $3.2 billion to help states and cities protect against terrorist attacks in 2009, but the White House said it would ask Congress for less than half _ $1.4 billion, according to a Nov. 26 document. The plan calls for outright elimination of programs for port security, transit security, and local emergency management operations in the next budget year. This is President Bush's last budget, and the new administration would have to live with the funding decisions between Jan. 20 and Sept. 30, 2009. . . .

The proposal to drastically cut Homeland Security grants is at odds with some of the administration's own policies. For example, the White House recently promised continued funding for state and regional intelligence "fusion centers" _ information-sharing centers the administration deems critical to preventing another terrorist attack. Cutting the grants would limit money available for the centers. . . .

"This budget proposal is dead on arrival," said Sen. Barbara Boxer, D-Calif. "This administration runs around the country scaring people and then when it comes to putting their money where their mouth is, they say 'sorry, the bank is closed.'" . . .

"To zero out essential Homeland Security programs which have more to do with protecting Americans and fighting the war on terror than much of the money spent in Iraq shows how warped and out of touch this administration's priorities are," said Sen. Charles Schumer, a Democrat.

Sens. Schumer and Boxer’s criticisms are correct.  Bush’s proposed budget cuts exemplify the cruel nature of the political hypocrisy that Republicans are perpetrating on Americans.

                        RECESSION

The American economy continues its lurch towards recession; perhaps stagflation.  Stagflation is simply a stagnating economy (the “stag”) accompanied by rising prices (the “flation”).  America has not experienced the nightmare of stagflation since the 1970’s. 

There's a whiff of stagflation in the air. Not the 1970s disease, when a stagnant economy generated 9% unemployment and 12% inflation. What's shaping up now is a much milder case, with more danger of "stag-" than "-flation." Over the next few months, economic growth is set to grind down, perhaps abruptly, as the jobless rate rises. At the same time, overall inflation will be rising rapidly, thanks to the latest surge in oil prices and a speedup in already rising food costs. It's a nasty mix that could complicate Federal Reserve policymaking and leave investors wondering which way to turn.

Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke tries to reassure Americans that while the economy is slowing down, that the economy will rebound during the second half of 2008.  Chairman Bernanke’s utterances however, are not calming the growing sense of financial panic as it was Bernanke, in 2006, who predicted that the “housing slump” and then emerging “credit crisis” were successfully “contained:”

Some seasoned Fed watchers say he should have avoided the optimistic assertion that the damage caused by subprime mortgages was "contained" before the collapse of credit in the world's money markets prompted extraordinary central bank intervention this month. Now, as he resists demands to cut the benchmark interest rate, the fault-finding, some from former Fed policy makers, has escalated to charges that he is behind in the game and losing his credibility and effectiveness.

In an attempt to spur the economy, the Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates at its upcoming meeting.  Cutting interest rates is a two-edged sword; it may spur economic activity, but the value of the US Dollar will take another beating and that means the price of oil will continue at historic price levels:

"If the Fed cuts rates, it will probably push oil prices higher," said Adam Sieminski, chief energy economist at Deutsche Bank.

[L]ower interest rates usually cause the dollar to fall, as they make dollar-denominated investments like Treasurys less attractive for foreign investors.

Oil, like many other commodities, is priced in dollars worldwide. If the dollar falls, oil producing nations, like those in OPEC, need a higher price per barrel to maintain . . . the same level of revenue. While oil producing countries don't set the price of oil in the market, they do have control over production and are less likely to increase it when faced with the declining dollar. Also, foreign consumers have less incentive to reduce demand if oil is, relatively, getting cheaper for them.

Bush continues to announce that his administration has a “strong dollar” policy.  Despite the rhetoric, Bush takes no action to defend the US Dollar.  In 2004, Dan Froomkin wrote this critique:

President Bush doesn't talk about the dollar much, but when he does, he's got exactly one thing to say about it: "We have a strong dollar policy."

It's becoming increasingly clear, however, that Bush's "strong dollar policy" is driving the greenback into the ground.

The dollar is hitting record lows this week amidst fears that the mortgage-market meltdown will spread to other parts of the economy and as the Chinese make noise about moving more of their investments into euros. But it is the underlying dynamics of the American economy -- continued massive trade deficits and a whopping national debt -- that have put the dollar in such a precarious position.

A true strong dollar policy, aimed at increasing the confidence of international investors, would require Bush to do a bunch of things he doesn't want to do. For instance, he would have to stop borrowing so much money to fund his tax cuts and his wars. He would need to encourage the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, rather than depend on it to keep propping up the domestic economy by decreasing them. That sort of thing.

Instead, Bush just offers the strong-dollar line, without specifics, and moves on.

This past week, Quinn Hillyer authors this alarming article that appears in the conservative American Spectator:

By letting the dollar continue to weaken, the Bush administration is making another in its long series of huge, avoidable mistakes.

It is an administration that . . . has been utterly incompetent, not to mention bullheaded in ignoring important data and empirical evidence, on far too many fronts. . . .

ALL THIS IS RELEVANT because it shows an administration that, no matter how high its ideals, has been repeatedly asleep at the switch. And so it is again with regard to the free-falling dollar. Other experts (here, here, here, and here, among many others) have explained and will continue to explain the details of what is now a crisis in the dollar's value. . . .

[T]he administration has been sending signals from day one that it actually prefers a weaker dollar, beginning when then-Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill noted that a "strong dollar" meant little in policy terms. O'Neill's successor at Treasury, John Snow,
continued with the message by asking at a G-8 meeting in France, "What's wrong with a weak dollar?" Now, though, even French President Nicolas Sarkozy is warning that a weak dollar is a threat to world economic stability -- and even supermodels are sounding the alarm.

Unless the dollar's decline is stopped by strong words and concrete actions, and soon, the American economy is in serious danger of sliding into the sort of stagflation -- stagnation plus inflation -- that rocked the nation throughout most of the 1970s.

Middle class Americans are already under crushing financial strain.  It is creating one “Katrina a month” throughout the United States:

The home foreclosure crisis slamming into the nation's neighborhoods is having the effect of about "one Hurricane Katrina per month," James K. Galbraith, an economist with the University of Texas at Austin, said Friday at a forum examining the credit crisis.

In the immediate aftermath of Hurricane Katrina in the fall of 2005, nearly 275,000 Gulf Coast residents were forced to move into group shelters, according to the Federal Emergency Management Agency.

Economists who recently completed a study for the U.S. Conference of Mayors predicted the number of home foreclosures will hit 1.4 million in 2008.

Republican economic policy is sending America into another recession.  The question for Americans: had enough?

                        SINS UPON THE CONSTITUTION

Government intrusion into the lives of American citizens is growing.  The reach is not only alarming to progressive Democrats, but to Republicans who cherish traditional constitutional protections.  This editorial appeared in the Idaho Mountain Express:

Also new in whittling way at the Constitution is Homeland Security’s program teaching big-city firefighters who enter homes to report, among other things, people expressing “discontent” with government. Democrats, newspaper columnists, anti-war activists, disloyal Republicans—beware.

This replicates Fidel Castro’s block-by-block snitch network that reports grumblers. Using firefighters as spies is anathema to their profession and an affront to the Fourth Amendment’s prohibition of search and seizure without a warrant. . . .

President Bush is under way with warrantless wiretaps, kidnapping terrorism “suspects” without evidence and sending them to foreign prisons indefinitely for grilling, ordering telephone companies to turn over customers’ records without court permission and firing federal attorneys who won’t play along with politics in prosecutions.

All this is happening on the watch of a president who claims to believe in “strict constructionist” judges to protect the Constitution. Next year’s presidential election can’t arrive fast enough.

Indeed, not fast enough.

NEXT - THEM DEMS

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Last Update: 12/07/2007