Them Dems

archived: 19 - 25 Aug, 2007         Back                 Next

UPDATED:  AUG 22, 2007

                        IT AIN’T OVER  

TPJ has been following the Republican effort in California to pass, by voter initiative, a plan to divide Presidential Electors proportionally.  California currently uses the “winner take all” method; Democrats winning California reliably in the recent electoral history.

Proportional representation would virtually ensure a Republican is elected to the White House.  As Kevin Drum writes in the Washington Monthly blog: 

This is obviously something to be concerned about, since reliably-blue California would normally award all 55 of its electoral votes to the Democratic candidate. Under the Hiltachk plan the Democrat would probably get only 30-35 or so.

But I wouldn't panic over this yet. If the powers-that-be decide to fund the signature gathering, they can probably get this thing on the ballot. But Californians have a pretty serious case of initiative fatigue these days, and not many initiatives pass. What's worse (for Republicans, that is), it's nearly impossible to pass a blatantly partisan initiative. It's hard to think of the last one that succeeded.

Arnold Schwarzenegger has spent the last couple of years carefully honing a moderate image and he seems unlikely to endorse this effort. None of the good government groups will go along. The Democratic Party and its allies will spend boatloads of money to defeat it. The odds of success are very, very slim.

On the downside, it will force the Democratic Party and its allies to spend boatloads of money to defeat it. That may be the whole point, in fact. It often is with these things.

Recent polling suggests that the Republican initiative is far more serious than Drum’s writing suggests.  A recent Field Poll

What is unsettling is the number of California Democrats who are apparently happy to hand the presidency to the Republicans again. In a new Field Poll, 49 percent of all California voters — and 41 percent of California Democrats — favor the GOP scheme:

“In the first survey on the issue since the Presidential Election Reform Act initiative was filed two weeks ago for the June 3 ballot, 49 percent said they’d support changing the current winner-take-all system to a district-by-district method, while 42 percent are opposed.

And that’s after voters are told that scrapping the current winner-take-all system would give Republicans an advantage in the presidential race, with a potential 22 of California’s 55 electoral votes going to the Republican nominee. The GOP currently holds 19 congressional districts . . . .”

The reality is that the battle for the 2008 Presidential election may be settled in practical terms well before November 2008.

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UPDATED:  AUG 19, 2007

                        SHAME & ENOUGH 

Congressional Democrats should be ashamed.   Democrats conceded unprecedented powers to Bush to conduct surveillance without judicial oversight. The vote in the House was 227-183 and in the US Senate the vote was 60-28.  A body of Democrats joined with Republicans to pass the bill. 

The House Democratic leadership had severe reservations about the proposal and an overwhelming majority of Democrats opposed it. Speaker Nancy Pelosi said the measure “does violence to the Constitution of the United States.”

But with the Senate already in recess, Democrats confronted the choice of allowing the administration’s bill to reach the floor and be approved mainly by Republicans or letting it die.

If it had stalled, that would have left Democratic lawmakers, long anxious about appearing weak on national security issues, facing an August spent fending off charges from Republicans that they had left Americans exposed to threats.

The New York Times immediately made the case why Democrats who joined with Republicans to pass this legislation unnecessarily diminished the US Constitution:

Since the 9/11 terrorist attacks, the Bush administration has repeatedly demonstrated that it does not feel bound by the law or the Constitution when it comes to the war on terror. It cannot even be trusted to properly use the enhanced powers it was legally granted after the attacks.

Yet, once again, President Bush has been trying to stampede Congress into a completely unnecessary expansion of his power to spy on Americans. And, hard as it is to believe, Congressional Republicans seem bent on collaborating, while Democrats (who can still be cowed by the White House’s with-us-or-against-us baiting) aren’t doing enough to stop it. . . .

 [T]here are very clear lines that must not be crossed. . . .

The administration and its Republican supporters in Congress argue that American intelligence is blinded by FISA and have seized on neatly timed warnings of heightened terrorist activity to scare everyone. It is vital for Americans, especially lawmakers, to resist that argument. It is pure propaganda.

This is not, and has never been, a debate over whether the United States should conduct effective surveillance of terrorists and their supporters. It is over whether we are a nation ruled by law, or the whims of men in power. Mr. Bush faced that choice and made the wrong one. Congress must not follow him off the cliff.

Further details of what Democrats approved is coming to light.

The law goes much further than originally thought:

Several legal experts said that by redefining the meaning of “electronic surveillance,” the new law narrows the types of communications covered in the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, known as FISA, by indirectly giving the government the power to use intelligence collection methods far beyond wiretapping that previously required court approval if conducted inside the United States.

These new powers include the collection of business records, physical searches and so-called “trap and trace” operations, analyzing specific calling patterns.

For instance, the legislation would allow the government, under certain circumstances, to demand the business records of an American in Chicago without a warrant if it asserts that the search concerns its surveillance of a person who is in Paris, experts said.

It is possible that some of the changes were the unintended consequences of the rushed legislative process just before this month’s Congressional recess, rather than a purposeful effort by the administration to enhance its ability to spy on Americans.

And, Democrats handed AG Gonzales broad powers over death penalty cases:

Attorney General Alberto R. Gonzales, under political siege for his handling of the U.S. attorney firings and other issues, is to get expanded powers to hasten death penalty cases under regulations being developed by the Justice Department.

The rules would give Gonzales the authority to approve "fast-track" procedures by states in death penalty cases, enabling them to carry out sentences more speedily and with fewer opportunities for appeal if those states provide adequate representation for capital defendants.

Such powers were previously held by federal judges, but a provision of the USA Patriot Act reauthorization bill approved by Congress last year hands the authority to the attorney general.

Congressional Democrats should be ashamed of their role in succumbing to pass this legislation.  Obviously, much remains left to be done before the onslaught against the Constitution will be stopped.  The new law authorizes unprecedented surveillance for six months, by which time it is presumed that Congress will act again.

Will Democrats act honorably towards traditional constitutional principles?

                        THE ONE-THIRD

About one-third of the nation believes that Bush’s occupation of Iraq is going well.  A number of polls document the fact, the most recent CNN/Opinion Research poll demonstrating the public opinion landscape well.

CNN/Opinion Research Corporation Poll. Aug. 6-8, 2007. N=1,029 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3 (for all adults).

 

 

 

 

 

.

 

"Do you favor or oppose the U.S. war in Iraq?"

 

 

 

 

 

.

 

 

 

Favor

Oppose

Unsure

 

 

 

 

%

%

%

 

 

 

8/6-8/07

33

64

3

 

 

 

6/22-24/07

30

67

3

 

 

 

5/4-6/07

34

65

1

 

 

 

4/10-12/07

32

66

2

 

 

 

3/9-11/07

32

63

4

 

 

 

1/11/07

31

67

2

 

 

 

"Do you think the United States is winning or not winning the war in Iraq?" Half sample, MoE ± 4.5

 

 

 

 

 

.

 

 

 

Winning

Not Winning

Unsure

 

 

 

 

%

%

%

 

 

 

8/6-8/07

32

63

5

 

 

 

3/9-11/07

29

61

9

 

 

 

11/17-19/06

34

61

5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

.

 

"Do you think the United States can win or cannot win the war in Iraq?" Half sample, MoE ± 4.5

 

 

 

 

 

.

 

 

 

Can

Cannot

Unsure

 

 

 

 

%

%

%

 

 

 

8/6-8/07

54

43

3

 

 

 

3/9-11/07

46

46

8

 

 

 

11/17-19/06

54

43

3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

.

 

"Do you think the war with Iraq has made the U.S. safer or less safe from terrorism?" Half sample, MoE ± 4.5

 

 

 

 

 

.

 

 

 

Safer

Less Safe

No Change
(vol.)

Unsure

 

 

 

%

%

%

%

 

 

8/6-8/07

42

49

6

2

 

 

 

 

 

 

.

 

"Do you think the chances of a terrorist attack in the U.S. would be higher if the U.S. withdraws its troops from Iraq as soon as possible or would be higher if the U.S. keeps its troops in Iraq?" Half sample, MoE ± 4.5

 

 

 

 

 

.

 

 

 

Higher if
Withdraws
ASAP

Higher if
Keeps Troops
In Iraq

Unsure

 

 

 

 

%

%

%

 

 

 

8/6-8/07

45

44

12

 

 

Who constitutes this one-third?  Obviously, the group is comprised mostly of the Republican base.  A more important question is why the one-third continues to hold its opinion in the face of the horrid reality that has emerged.

A largely overlooked article by Janet Elder of the NYT begins to address the reasons Republicans can continue to support Bush’s position in Iraq.  She concludes:

But as the war has progressed, the number of Republicans who support the war has declined along with popular support more generally, though to a lesser degree. To a large extent, Mr. Bush’s public relations offensive in recent months has been aimed at stopping the erosion and holding onto those who have been loyal to him all along.

Some say Mr. Bush’s best bet for holding onto his supporters is to continue to link the war in Iraq to the war on terrorism. “Large numbers of people connect the Iraq war to terrorism,” said John Mueller, author of “War, Presidents and Public Opinion.” “From Bush’s standpoint, he’s right to keep pushing it. There is the terror war and the Iraq war and in so far as he is able to tie them in together, it is good for him.”

In the most recent New York Times/CBS News poll taken in July, nearly six in ten people who said the war in Iraq is going well also said they see the war as a major part of the war on terrorism.

Public opinion experts suggest that poll respondents are not necessarily offering considered opinions when called by pollsters. “They’ve got some ingredients for an opinion, but not a pre-formed opinion,” John Zaller, a professor of political science at UCLA and the author of The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion, wrote in an email.

“In the case of the Iraq War, what will be salient to some people is that their country is in a tough fight and so it is important for them to show resolve by supporting the country and its war leader, George Bush.”

Some of the respondents to recent Times/CBS News polls were re-interviewed to discuss their perceptions about how well the war was going. They rarely mentioned attacks on American troops or the failure of the Iraqi government to meet goals. They talked about fighting terrorists, an impression that the United States is succeeding at rebuilding Iraq and general support for Mr. Bush.

“If we don’t stay there and fight them, they’re going to come over here, so I’d just as soon fight them over there,” said Chrys Hills, from Platte, Missouri, a 70 year- old retired planner in a railroad office. “If you listen to the news, we are cleaning up parts of Iraq and the people are starting to tell us where the bad guys are.”

“I just think George W. Bush is doing a good job with Iraq and everything else,” said Susan Brand, 47, a housecleaner in Burnsville Minnesota. “He’s a straight up Republican. He says things are going well there.”

Political scientists point to cognitive dissonance, a psychological theory sometimes applied to political behavior, as being responsible for the way some people may be reconciling reports that the war is not going well with their belief that it is going well. . . .

Mr. Jacobson said that in terms of the war, cognitive dissonance is playing out for some people in favor of Mr. Bush. “As long as he projects optimism,” he said, “they are willing to dismiss the mainstream media as biased.” . .  .

Neil Newhouse, a Republican pollster . . . contrasted the views of Democrats with those of Republicans.

“Republicans go in the other direction,” Mr. Newhouse said. “They are looking at this as a broader concern. The war is the initial skirmish in the war against terrorism. More than anything else they are coming to the defense of their president.”

Changing the mindset of these Americans will be extraordinarily difficult and may not be feasible to any appreciable degree.

Over half of respondents, +54%, still believe that America can win the war in Iraq.  Second, far too many Americans, +42%, continue to believe that Bush’s occupation of Iraq will make the US safer.  Third +45% continue to believe that the threat to America will be greater if we disengage from Iraq.  These numbers indicate that there is still work remaining to educate Americans outside of the Republican base that “staying the course” actually imperils the US. 

Collectively, the issues of going to war and Bush’s continued occupation have been decided against this President.  Democrats now need to fashion discreet strategies to change opinions on the last remaining and fallacious arguments of the Bush administration for continuing the

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NEXT- MICHAEL CARMICHAEL
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Last Update: 08/29/2007