UPDATED: AUG 16, 2007
DOG DAYS
It is the dog days of public polling as some polling firms take a “vacation” from public polling during periods of the summer months. Only five polls have been released in August. By comparison, eight polls were released by this date in April, 2007.
Bush has experienced a bit of a bounce in the poll averages thus far in August; approval is 31.40% (+98% from July) and disapproval has fallen to 63% (-.50% from July).
The best evidence suggests that Bush’s bounce is attributable to members of the Republican base who have returned to the fold since Bush’s bipartisan immigration plan was defeated in Congress. The CNN director of polling explains:
Bush's approval rating in the latest poll was 36 percent, an increase from 32 percent in June. But CNN Polling Director Keating Holland explained that the improvement is entirely due to Republicans turning around and deciding to stand by their president.
"The gain in Bush's approval is due entirely to Republicans coming home," Holland said. "There was no change in the approval rating among Democrats or Independents between this poll and the last one, but Bush's approval rating went up 16 points among Republicans since June."
If Keating’s assessment is correct, Bush’s bounce will remain within a narrow range. Keating’s assessment also strongly suggests that if Bush’s base holds firm Bush’s approval will remain in the 31% to 34% in the coming months absent major developments.
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Approve |
Trail Mo |
Disapprove |
No Opinion |
Spread |
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2007 |
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Quinnipiac RV |
8/7-13/07 |
29 |
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64 |
7 |
-35 |
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CBS |
8/8-12/07 |
29 |
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65 |
6 |
-36 |
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CNN/Opinion Research |
8/6-8/07 |
36 |
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61 |
3 |
-25 |
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Gallup/USAToday |
8/3-5/07 |
34 |
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62 |
4 |
-25 |
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Newsweek |
8/1-2/07 |
29 |
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63 |
8 |
-34 |
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August Avg |
31.40 |
0.98 |
63.00 |
5.60 |
-31.00 |
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July Avg |
30.42 |
-0.43 |
63.50 |
6.08 |
-33.08 |
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June Avg |
30.85 |
-2.38 |
63.23 |
6.00 |
-32.38 |
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May Avg |
33.22 |
-1.70 |
61.33 |
5.56 |
-28.11 |
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April Avg |
34.92 |
1.49 |
59.92 |
5.15 |
-25.00 |
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March Avg |
33.43 |
-0.24 |
60.43 |
6.14 |
-27.00 |
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February Avg |
33.67 |
-0.22 |
60.17 |
6.08 |
-26.50 |
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January Avg |
33.89 |
-1.61 |
61.61 |
4.83 |
-27.72 |
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2006 |
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December Avg |
35.50 |
-0.93 |
59.25 |
5.42 |
-23.75 |
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November Avg |
36.43 |
-1.07 |
58.00 |
5.50 |
-21.57 |
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October Avg |
37.50 |
-3.42 |
57.11 |
5.36 |
-19.61 |
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September Avg |
40.92 |
2.64 |
54.23 |
4.77 |
-13.31 |
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August Avg |
38.29 |
0.59 |
57.14 |
4.64 |
-18.86 |
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July Avg |
37.70 |
0.49 |
56.40 |
5.90 |
-18.70 |
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June Avg |
37.21 |
3.05 |
56.79 |
5.93 |
-19.57 |
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May Avg |
34.17 |
-1.58 |
60.33 |
5.91 |
-26.17 |
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April Avg |
35.75 |
-1.35 |
57.75 |
6.82 |
-22.00 |
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March Avg |
37.10 |
-2.54 |
57.30 |
5.80 |
-20.20 |
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February Avg |
39.64 |
-2.42 |
55.21 |
5.23 |
-15.57 |
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January Avg |
42.07 |
1.32 |
53.27 |
5.07 |
-11.20 |
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2005 |
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December Avg |
40.75 |
2.83 |
54.25 |
6.33 |
-13.50 |
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November Avg |
37.92 |
-1.93 |
56.46 |
6.09 |
-18.54 |
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October Avg |
39.86 |
-1.46 |
55.07 |
5.58 |
-15.21 |
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September Avg |
41.31 |
-1.91 |
53.75 |
4.81 |
-12.44 |
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