archived: 17 - 23 Sep, 2006         Back                 Next

Updated: Sep 21, 2006

                       GAUGING THE BOUNCE                         

Bush has bounced in the polls.  As TPJ’s notes in the articles below, Bush’s approval rating is now above 40%.  Does this resurgence in approval condemn Democrats to defeat in November?  Not at all!   

In the US Senate contests, these are the States in which the critical races for majority control will be fought and current polling averages for the races: 

Survey USA’s latest poll numbers for Bush’s approval/disapproval, as of Wednesday, for these State are as follows:                         

In four of the nine States, Bush’s bounce has been 2% or less; Rhode Island, Ohio, Virginia and Montana. In three States; New Jersey, Minnesota and Tennessee, Bush has mustered a 6% rise in approval rating.   Bush’s approval has risen by +10% or more in Pennsylvania and Missouri.

Yet, in five of the nine States, Bush’s improved approval rating is still less than 40%,  and Bush is not above 50% approval in the remaining four States; Virginia, Missouri, Tennessee and Montana that are typically “red states.”   By any measure, Bush’s approval ratings in these four States portray a President who is not going to be much help to his Party’s candidates.  And, in the five States where Bush’s approval rating is below 40%, Bush will be a weight against his Party’s candidates. 

Carefully note that the spread between approval and disapproval in each State remains above 10% in every State save Montana.  Not good numbers at all!  

Democrats simply need to remain focused on the two tasks at hand; a) continue to make the case against the Republican Party nationally and b) wage an aggressive fight on the ground State by State.  

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UPDATED: SEPTEMBER 19, 2006 

                        AVOID EXCESSIVE DEPRESSION  

Bush’s approval ratings are up and the pronosticators who were predicting a fairly strong Democratic victory in November are now framing the election as one in which Rove & Co will “hang on.”   

Niall Ferguson with the Los Angles Times frames the Republican view of the current situation: 

For three good reasons . . . I expect the Dems to be disappointed — just as they were two years ago.

First, on closer inspection, Iraq is still far from being a vote winner for Democrats. Many Americans still believe that invading Iraq was a rational response to 9/11, even if evidence to link Saddam Hussein to the perpetrators is conspicuous by its absence. So they buy Bush's notion of Iraq as the "central front" in the war on terror. Moreover, when asked which party they trust to wage that war, they prefer the Republicans to the Democrats by a margin of 14%.

Crucially, if asked to choose between a Republican who wants to maintain troop levels in Iraq and a Democrat seeking "immediate and orderly withdrawal," 48% of voters plump for the Republican and just 41% for the Democrat. Americans may want troop reductions; they are not ready to cut and run. If the Republicans can portray their opponents as favoring withdrawal, they win the Iraq argument.

Second, despite widespread fears over the summer, the U.S. economy looks to be landing softly. Growth has slowed, not stopped. Consumption is still growing, as are earnings. Sure, inflation is up, but unemployment is down (4.7% compared with 4.9% a year ago), and crude oil prices have dropped sharply since August, easing the pain Americans feel when they fill up their cars. The stock market has bounced back since the dog days of July. The threatened real estate crash has failed to materialize, though house prices have certainly cooled.

And to appease those Americans who blame their economic difficulties on immigration, squabbling Republicans in Congress have sidelined the president's plan for a partial amnesty for illegal immigrants.

In most democratic systems, of course, that kind of internal dissension causes parties to lose credibility. But thanks to the constitutional separation of powers, party unity matters less here. Indeed, under Karl Rove's direction, the Republican Party is adopting its own strategy of separation, allowing legislators to do whatever it takes — including, if necessary, criticizing their own president — to ensure their own political survival. This is the third and most important reason to expect a non-event in November.

IT'S AN OLD ADAGE that in the United States all politics are local. That's even more true today than it was a generation ago. Gerrymandering has tended to increase the political homogeneity of most electoral districts. This in turn increases the chances that incumbents will be reelected. Once a district has a critical mass of either Republicans or Democrats, the key to victory is to mobilize the "base" of active voters. There's much less need to woo floating voters from the center, who may in any case fail to turn out on election day. This trend explains why there's less bipartisan cooperation in Congress than there used to be. It also explains why legislators don't hesitate to badmouth the president if they feel he's out of tune with local sentiment.  . . .

The big question is whether or not the strategy of separation can work in two years' time, when voters have to elect a new president. It's a challenge. Separation is one thing; a split personality is another. 

Ferguson may be correct – he could equally be incorrect.  At this point in the election cycle Democrats are waging solid campaigns; campaigns that can win. 

Bush’s poll numbers will rise and fall; the polls in races will thrill us one week and disappoint the next.   

Democrats must simply steel themselves at the whiff of gunpowder.  Democrats must simply get on the ground and convince voters that Democrats can and will do a better job running this country for all Americans.

                        AVOID EXCESSIVE EXUBERANCE  

The current polling on the US Senate races should give Democrats optimism.  Averaging polls over the last two weeks reflects that Democrats are competitive and set to pick up Senate seats.  

First, Democrats must hold Washington State, New Jersey and Minnesota.  Democrats in Washington and Minnesota have leads well outside the margin of error in the polls.  TPJ has not listed Washington as it has been clearly outside the margin of error for some weeks now.  The Republican candidate, running on an “ethics” challenge failed to properly disclose a prior DWI conviction – an omission that has left Washington voters cold.  

Today, we add Minnesota to our list of LIKELY DEMOCRAT states and this will be the last time Minnesota appears in TPJ’s watch list unless circumstances change over the next few weeks.  In TPJ’s estimation, Bush has hurt the Republican Party badly in Minnesota.  

For Democrats, New Jersey is clearly problematical.   After essentially four weeks of polling, the race is a statistical tie with a very large group of undecided voters.     

Republicans must hold Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Missouri, Rhode Island, Virginia and Tennessee.  Democrats need six of these seven States while holding New Jersey.  It is a tall order. 

Montana:  The polls have been relatively consistent over the past four weeks, with Tester holding a slight edge within the margin of error.  The question at the moment appears to be how will the 8% of undecided voters break and who can mount the best GOTV on Election Day.   

Ohio:  Each candidate moves +/- 1%, but the numbers have essentially not changed, Brown leads just outside of the margins of error.  With 14% undecided, how do they break as the election approaches?  Can Democrats mount a GOTV campaign that can match the Republican machine that carried the State for Bush in 2004? 

Pennsylvania:  Democrat Casey continues to hold not only a 10% lead, clearly outside the margin of error, but is over 50% in the polls.  For Sen. Santorum, the incumbent, one can hear the “fat lady” warming up in the wings.   

Missouri:  Another State that has the candidates moving +/- 1%, with both candidates clearly in the margins of error.  Truly a toss up with 7% undecided!  This contest may be headed to victory for the Party that can most effectively turn out its voters.  

Rhode Island:  Sen. Chafee fended off a strong Republican conservative challenger in this liberal State.  Democrats will have to fight hard, but the first polls following Chafee’s win show some movement to the Democrat, Whitehouse.  Yet, Whitehouse’s lead, 4% is within margin of error and with 14% undecided, this race is a long way from being decided.