Them Dems

It may be an example of Ben Franklin’s admonishment to the rebels of the American Revolution signing the Declaration of Independence, "We will all hang together or all hang separately." Gov. Dean and DCCC’s Rahm Emanuel, who have been feuding for months over strategy for the Party, have reached a truce.

The DNC has agreed to spend money in 40 [of the House races targeted by] Emanuel's [DCCC], a Democratic official said this afternoon.

Officials at the two committees declined to specify the scope of the the DNC's investment, but several strategists privy to the negotiations said they believe that the DNC has committed to spend at least $60K per race.

DNC officials are currently negotiating with the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee about spending in key Senate contests. . . .

Overall, the DNC has budgeted about $12 million for getting out the vote -- the largest hard dollar sum it has ever spent on GOTV in a midterm. (In 2002, it spent $12 million on congressional races, $5 million on governors races and $7 million on redistricting battles.) The DSCC and the DCCC are both spending millions on their own field programs, and the total between the three committees will probably exceed the estimated $30 million set aside by the Republican National Committee for their 72 Hour Program. Organized labor is also spending $40 million to help mostly Democrats, and interest groups in America Vote consortium are using data from Catalist, a warehouse of voter lists and demographic information, to reach out to independent voters in battlegrounds.

The truce is an encouraging omen for the defeat of the Republicans in November. The truce comes timely.

As most Democrats know, Republican Sen. Chafee of Rhode Island was opposed by conservative Republicans in their primary yesterday. The National Republican Party intervented on Sen. Chaffee’s behalf, believing that if the conservative won Rhode Island would be surely lost in November. Sen. Chafee survived the challenge. Hotline noted one important reason:

One other note on RI. The RNC 72-hour program has once again surpassed expecations [sic]. While there are sporadic reports that the RNC's vaunted GOTV program is running into burnout problems in states like OH, MO and PA (three states that saw the program first introduced in '04) wherever the RNC has introduced the program for the first time this cycle, they've seen results.

From CA 50 to RI SEN, the RNC and the WH are probably getting cocky about their abilities to "save" elections. Does this mean in states like TN, CT and IN -- three places the RNC is implementing the 72-hour program for the first time, they'll see better than expected results?

These are the questions that keep many of us up at night. BTW, should the GOP hold the senate by a seat, tonight will be known as the Mark Twain primary because it may be the night where we found out that reports of the GOP's demise had been greatly exaggerated.

The Republicans have traditionally had a better GOTV ground game. Democrats need a unified approach to GOTV if we are going to win in November.

Two polls released in September and Bush is back. The CNN poll has approval -1% and disapproval -2% from its previous poll in August. The ABC approval rating is +2% from an August ABC/Washington Post poll with disapproval -3%.

Given “house effects” in both polls, TPJ would peg Bush’s approval rating in the neighborhood of 40%. While there have been some contrary polling since June, and there will be others in the next few weeks, we now conclude that Bush is sustaining a bounce in the polls that is strong.

		Approve	Trail Mo	Disapprove	No Opinion	Spread


ABC	9/5-7/06	42		55	3	-13
CNN	8/30 - 9/2/06	41		55	4	-14

		41.50	3.80	55.00	3.50	-13.50


	2006
	August Average	38.29	0.59	57.14	4.64	-18.86
	July Average	37.70	0.49	56.40	5.90	-18.70
	June Average	37.21	3.05	56.79	5.93	-19.57
	May Average	34.17	-1.58	60.33	5.91	-26.17
	April Average	35.75	-1.35	57.75	6.82	-22.00
	March Average	37.10	-2.54	57.30	5.80	-20.20
	February Average	39.64	-2.42	55.21	5.23	-15.57
	January Average	42.07	1.32	53.27	5.07	-11.20

	2005
	December Average	40.75	2.83	54.25	6.33	-13.50
	November Average	37.92	-1.93	56.46	6.09	-18.54
	October Average	39.86	-1.46	55.07	5.58	-15.21
	September Average	41.31	-1.91	53.75	4.81	-12.44
	August Average	43.22	-2.38	52.33	4.33	-9.11
	July Average	45.60	0.60	49.00	5.30	-3.40
	June Average	45.00	-1.50	49.83	5.33	-4.83
	May Average	46.50	-1.10	48.33	5.17	-1.83
	April Average	47.60	-1.28	49.00	3.20	-1.40
	March Average	48.88	-1.13	46.00	5.13	2.88
	February Average	50.00	-1.00	46.29	3.71	3.71
	January Average	51.00		44.71	4.00	6.29

How is that possible? Americans are convinced by large numbers that America is headed in the wrong direction. The CNN poll found that more Americans see the country has headed in a bad direction, those who believe very badly increasing 10% within a single month:

CNN Poll conducted by Opinion Research Corporation. Aug. 30-Sept. 2, 2006. N=1,004 adults nationwide.
					.
"How well are things going in the country today . . . ?" Half sample, MoE ± 4.5
					.
		Very Well	Fairly Well	Pretty Badly	Very Badly	Unsure
		%	%	%	%	%
	8/30 - 9/2/06	9	37	29	25	1
	8/2-3/06	8	47	29	15	-

Consumer confidence, as measured by ABC/Washington Post has fluctuated during 2006 but has remained generally negative.

1/29/2006	-9	.	4/30/2006	-13	7/30/2006	-10
1/22/2006	-9	.	4/23/2006	-11	7/23/2006	-11
1/15/2006	-13	.	4/16/2006	-7	7/16/2006	-9
1/8/2006	-8		4/9/2006	-9	7/9/2006	-10
Jan Avg