archived: 21 - 27 May, 2006         Back                 Next

UPDATED:  May 25, 2006 

                        BUSH 

Bush’s approval ratings remain down from TPJ’s last report. Bush’s trailing average from last April to mid-May has dropped some two points and no recent poll has Bush above 35%.   

The changing of the staff guard at the White House for a “fresh start” has simply not produced immediate improvement in Bush’s numbers. Perhaps the central conclusion to be reached is that the public’s distrust of this administration is deep and public opinion will not be immediately regained.                         

                        AL GORE 

VP Al Gore has been on a bit of a comeback of recent; and some Democrats are talking about another Gore bid for the presidency that many think was stolen from him.   

Dick Morris has just published an article contending that Al Gore is the only Democrat who can stop Hillary Clinton from the 2008 Democratic Party nomination.  His reasoning: 

Al Gore - poor benighted Al Gore - offers the best chance to stop Hillary, albeit in the Democratic primary.

History is repeating itself. In 1960 and 2000, a popular president (Eisenhower/Clinton) prompted his vice president (Nixon/Gore) to run for president. Each lost very, very narrowly. Each was sharply attacked within his own party for not using the popular incumbent more to campaign on his behalf.

After their defeats, neither seemed likely to get another presidential nomination. But then the party blew the next election by a considerably larger margin (Goldwater/Kerry) and the former VP's defeat didn't look so bad in retrospect. Each rode opposition to a current war into renewed popularity. And Nixon got elected.

Gore has several key advantages over Hillary. He has always strongly opposed the war, while she and the other possible Democratic candidates – Kerry, Edwards, Bayh and Biden – all voted for it. His historic warnings about the dangers of climate change seem to be coming true all around us. The major national issue – energy prices – is right up his alley. Gore has been advocating alternative fuels and major conservation for decades.

Gore would exploit a soft-core negative against Hillary that is sweeping the ranks of Democrats. Hungry for victory and suspicious of Hillary's ability to win, they whisper to one another: "I like her but isn't she too divisive to win?"

Gore has become personally wealthy with the appreciation of his Google stock and his equity position in his Current TV network. And he has access to much of the donor base that he used in 2000 for his run for the presidency. Hillary will take many of these supporters with her, but the truly left-wing Democrats who are turned off by her moderation and backing for the war will likely provide a sufficiently wealthy and enraged base for funding an Al Gore campaign.

John Kerry and John Edwards both lack the purism of Gore on the Iraq War. Both backed it and voted for the resolution. Former Virginia Governor Mark Warner, the current fair-haired boy being touted in the Democratic Party, probably will not be able to get a word in edgewise as the two giants – Hillary and Al – square off with each other.

Any bad blood between Gore and Hillary? I once asked the vice president if there was any friction between Tipper and the first lady. "There is no friction between Tipper and Hillary" came the deadpan, earnest reply.

"Well," I rephrased my question "at the convention how do you think Hillary would react to Tipper introducing her?"

"There is no friction between Tipper and Hillary" came the automaton answer.

"So neither one would mind?" I ventured.

"There is no friction . . ." You get the point. There wouldn't be any friction between Al and Hillary were they to run against each other.

None at all. 

And, of course, Morris has no axes to grind with the Clinton’s.

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UPDATED:  May 23, 2006 

                        THE SPLIT 

Many readers may not recall Republican Richard Viguerie.  Viguerie developed ideological political direct mailing as an art form in the 1960’s.  George magazine ranks his creation of direct mailing as one of the 100 defining events of the 20th century.  Viguerie also was a significant actor in creating the Republican organ National Review and Conservative Digest as well as a plethora of allied Republican organizations.  In sum, he is an icon of the modern Republican Party. 

Viguerie, however, is calling on conservative Republicans to abandon the Republican Party in favor of a third party:  

In an open split with the US President George W Bush, a powerful American conservative lobbyist has called for like-minded Americans to stop funding the Republican Party and start an independent movement instead.

Richard Viguerie was instrumental in cementing the winning coalitions behind Ronald Reagan in 1980 and George W. Bush in 2000 but he has now declared conservatives have become disillusioned with congressional Republicans.

He has called on conservatives to form a powerful movement that is independent of any party and boycott November's election.

Instead, he suggests that they lay the groundwork for an election campaign in 2008 and hope that a new generation of conservative leaders has emerged by then.

Mr Viguerie's public outburst is seen as another ominous sign for the party less than six months before the November congressional vote.

A Washington Post-ABC News opinion poll released last week found Republican disapproval of Mr Bush's presidency has increased from 16 per cent to 30 per cent in just one month.

Mr Viguerie has acknowledged that a conservative boycott in November will likely spell defeat for the Republicans but insists it would be for the long-term good of the conservative movement.

"If conservatives accept the idea that we must support Republicans no matter what they do, we give up our bargaining position and any chance at getting things done," he said.

"Sometimes it is better to stand on principle and suffer a temporary defeat."  

His call for Republicans to sit out the mid-term elections and form a new party may not come to pass.  However, the mere fact that Viguerie made such a call demonstrates that the divisions within the Republican Party, particularly those who believe in fiscal conservatism, are indeed deep and erupting.  

Evidence of that split is emerging in the polls.  Democracy Corps released a new poll on Monday of three Congressional races in which the political handicappers thought were in the lower tier of Democratic Party potential for pickups.  Democracy Corps summarizes the results (emphasis added): 

Democracy Corps conducted surveys of likely voters May 10-16, 2006 in 3 Congressional Districts which respected political observers like Charlie Cook, Stuart Rothenberg, and Larry Sabato have rated in the middle or lowest tier in their assessments of the 50-60 races in play this election cycle. The Democracy Corps surveys show each of the Democratic challengers are highly competitive in these tough races, indicating that the battlefield is growing and a Democratic House is very possible.

In Pennsylvania 7, where Republican Congressman Curt Weldon faces Democrat Joe Sestak, the Republican leads 51-41 in the initial vote which narrows to a 49-45 race when both candidates’ biographies are presented to the voters.

In the Ohio 1 race between Republican Congressman Steve Chabot and Democrat John Cranley, the initial vote is 52-43 for Chabot. The horserace becomes 49-47 after voters hear the candidates’ biographies.

In New Jersey 7, which pits Republican Congressman Mike Ferguson against Democrat Linda Stender, Ferguson has a 54-35 lead. When presented with the candidates’ biographies, the race is cut to 50-41. . . .

The survey reveals the strong change environment in these districts, reflecting what is happening throughout America. In New Jersey 7 and Ohio 1, 64 percent think the country is going in the wrong direction, while 71 percent in Pennsylvania 7 share that view. President Bush performs dismally in these districts with approval ratings that should make each of these loyal Republicans uncomfortable (29 percent Bush approval in PA-7, 36 percent in NJ-7, and 40 percent in OH-1).

In this mid-term election, who turns out to vote will obviously make the difference between Republican and Democratic control of Congress. In each of the three races surveyed by Democracy Corps, the evidence indicates that Republicans are demoralized. The percentage that strongly disapproves of Bush is more than twice the size the percentage who strongly approve of him. And on our 1 to 10 scale on interest in the election, the number of those supporting the Republican who say their interest in the election is a ten lags behind the number of Democratic supporters who indicate that level of serious interest.

Among independents the Republican and Democratic candidates are running even but the data suggests they could break against incumbents as they strongly prefer a Democrat who would provide balance to Bush’s agenda to a Republican who would support it.

America wants change. Republicans who have not faced real challenges in years past now find themselves on new terrain. 

The message is simple.  Democrats must outwork Republicans on the ground to turn out the vote in November.  A simple prescription for recapturing control of Congress.

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                        “BLOOD AND GUTS”  

Democrats are going to need a bit of a political tsunami in order to recapture majority control of the US House of Representative and a bigger tsunami to regain majority control of the US Senate.  Signs are emerging that a tsunami is possible. 

Pennsylvania held a special election to fill a vacant seat in State Senate District 19, a historically Republican District, as a part of the statewide primary elections.  Democrats won a historically Republican district.  The win holds many lessons (emphasis added) for Democrats across America: 

Democrats crashed through the walls of the formerly impenetrable Republican fortress known as Chester County on Tuesday, sending one of their own to the state Senate for the first time in more than a century.

In a special election for the 19th District state Senate seat, Democrat Andrew Dinniman trounced Republican Carol Aichele by 13 percentage points, a margin that no politician can recall even for a Democrat winning a local office in Chester County. . . .

"This is the rare political event here or in the country where you have an upset landslide," said Democratic party activist and former Congressional candidate Dan Wofford. "It's a true watershed election that breaks the Republican stranglehold in Chester County."

Republican county controller Valentino F. FiGiorgio 3d [observed,] "It is hard to analyze because it is unprecedented. We need to figure out what message our base was sending."

But Democrats had no problem figuring it out, saying the race's outcome spoke to the anger voters are feeling at Washington, Harrisburg and everywhere in between.

"There is a frustration that crosses party lines," said Wofford. "People want change, they want government to start solving problems and they want an end to partisanship."

Many credited Dinniman's win to the fact that he has been a county commissioner for 15 years. People knew him, they felt comfortable with him and they liked him.