archived: 30 Apr - 6 May, 2006         Back                 Next

UPDATED:  May 3, 2006                       

                        THREE TO WATCH
                        [Authored by BOY ORATOR] 

Over at BlueNC, someone asked for thoughts on which NC Congressional races would be close.  They also commented in believing Larry Kissell had a shot to win. Larry has been blogging about his recent primary victory, you can read it here.  I decided to . . . weigh in on the conversation. 

I, too, think Kissell has a strong shot. I got to sit next to him at JJ (the NDCP's big to-do dinner), as well as next to one of his fundraisers. They have a strong team and a strong message in anti-Republican incumbent times. Why I am convinced? I was talking to his fundraiser saying Kissell needed to be raising more money, to which Kissell's team member responded, 'It's hard because he teaches until 3:15.' That deserves pause, and with enough resources, Kissell can get that to resonate with voters. 

With that said, November is a long way off. There is plenty of time for the winds to change direction (both good and bad). Looking at turnout numbers, both early and overall, it seems clear Republican voters are demoralized...as they should be. Bush continues his terrible performance (building on his first four years), GOP members continue having legal problems, the country continues to underperform, etc. Low turnout caught Democrats with their pants down in 1994. It may be time for payback. 

It's not all down and out for the GOP, though. The President probably made his best political decision when he turned Rove loose, back into the waters in which he is most at home. That could spell trouble; do not underestimate that man. I'm not sure they are looking here, but Rove & Co. can pack quite a punch. 

As for which races will be close, I think the ones to watch are definitely Kissell's and Shuler's. Taylor is done in my opinion; while Shuler may not be an Asheville Dem (as most here would prefer), he still brings us one closer to a majority. Not being an Asheville Dem may also be the secret to winning in that district. Hayes is a little safer even though the district is supposedly friendlier to Democratic candidates. Kissell builds steam with each passing day, and victory is definitely in reach (although I'm sure Dunn has made it hard to raise money from the establishment, as they were torched by his dropping out). 

Then there is Brad Miller vs. Vernon Robinson. Oh, brother. I don't think Vernon's appeals to bigotry and radical conservatism will peel off enough voters. And you must remember that Kerry won the 13th in 2004. It's not a Mel Watt district, though, that is for sure. It is going to take a TON of resources, however, to make sure voters know the true Brad Miller (Robinson raised $3 million for his 2004 race), not the Robinson rendition. Robinson will raise considerable cash from out of state and will use it to try and peel off more conservative Democratic and Independent voters. He will say and do anything to get elected, as the voters in the 5th district know all too well. And he will also affect turnout levels, although it remains to be seen in which direction. At the end of the day, Miller should be re-elected. It will likely take the same effort necessary for Kissell and Shuler to beat their respective incumbents. 

                        REPUBLICAN EXORCISTS 

A preliminary overview of the Tuesday primaries reveals very few true surprises.  

            The House 

Republican exorcists defeated three “moderate” Republicans who had worked on a bipartisan basis with Democrats.  The moderates defeated were: 

Former House Co-Speaker Richard Morgan.  The Republican Party, in a rare move, openly endorsed, raised money and supported Morgan’s opponent.  Morgan lost by a narrow marginm 52 to 48%. 

 

Rep. Rick Eddins; Wake.

 

Rep. Stephen LaRoque, Lenoir, but a recount in this election lost by LaRoque by some 10 votes. 

The successful attack on the moderate Republicans was funded, largely, by Republican Art Pope: 

Helping bankroll the effort has been former state Rep. Art Pope, a Raleigh businessman whose company has been financing mass mailings accusing Morgan of raising taxes and linking him to Black.

 

Pope's committee reported sending out 217,876 pieces of mail into five House districts attacking GOP incumbents. Morgan says there have been at least four mailings since then -- likely pushing the total to 260,000. Morgan estimates that Pope has mailed 50,000 to 60,000 pieces into his district -- five or six for every likely primary vote. 

Conservative Republicans lost one seat to a moderate.  Rep. John Rhodes was one of the most vocal and conservative of Republicans in the House.  A more moderate, at least by Republican standards, defeated Rhodes.  

Conservative Republicans have clearly cut the heart out of any moderate Republican leadership in the House.  They have clearly sent a message to every elected Republican that allegiance to conservative ideology is required. 

For Democrats, only one surprise.  William Brisson defeated Democrat Rep. Ed Nye.  Rep. Nye had barely defeated Brisson in 2004.  TPJ is still researching what happened in this race, but it initially appears that Brisson will be more conservative than Nye.    

            The Senate 

Republicans exorcists defeated Sen. John Garwood, Wilkes, whose “walk” on the NC Education Lottery vote was instrumental in passage of the lottery.   

For Democrats in the Senate, there were no surprises.  Incumbents were largely not challenged or defeated their opponents.  

With conservatives now clearly in control of the Republican Party, the campaign against Democrats, both in the House and Senate, will be vitriolic and well funded.  Democrats have little time to lose in establishing an aggressive, coordinated campaign.  The general election will be a battle royal.  

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JUNKIE:  TPJ solicits reader observations about the elections on Tuesday.  Please use TPJ FEEDBACK.  TPJ will be exploring Tuesday’s results in greater depth in future issues.

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                        VOTER REGISTRATION 

TPJ returns to the issue of voter registration this week.  In past issues, TPJ has noted that the North Carolina Democratic Party does not have a comprehensive voter registration campaign for this election cycle. As a result, Republicans are slowly, but persistently, working to narrow Democratic Party advantage in voter registration. 

Republicans, in North Carolina and nationally, have a comprehensive program of “micro-targeting” citizens to register to vote and to vote them.  In reality, it is a modern day version of Pres. Abraham Lincoln’s advice to a prospective candidate who solicited his advice on how to win an election.  Pres. Lincoln quipped to the would be candidate, “Find them – vote them.”   

The Washington Times has published an article providing a glimpse into the Republican system.  These clips from the Washington Times’ article provide an outline of its operation: 

[T]he voter-identification, registration and Election Day turnout effort, which the Republican National Committee (RNC) reactivated quietly last year, is using state-of-the-art "micro-targeting" technology to thwart the Democrats' offensive to win control of Congress.

 

The grass-roots effort reactivates a well-trained ground force of political volunteers -- that eventually will number in the millions -- who have been sending in weekly reports on the number of new Republican voters identified and registered in key races through a vast e-mail network linking Republican Party organizations.

 

"Every single week our volunteers make tens of thousands of contacts with targeted voters," said a senior Republican official who detailed the operation for The Washington Times but did not want to be identified.

 

[A] senior party operative who is intimately involved in the program described a large and growing volunteer force that is given a set number of goals that have to be met each week. 

If “micro-targeting sounds as if it is some vague program, it is not.  Local Republican organizations in North Carolina demonstrate the reality.  For example, the Franklin County Republican Party, at its convention, was setting specific targets for voter registration, explaining those targets to is members and tracking success of their program.  The picture from their convention demonstrates the point. 

The Franklin County Democratic Party web page routinely updates voter registration numbers for their county.  TPJ has surveyed a number of Republican county websites and many are demonstrating their voter registration efforts. 

The point here is that Democrats in North Carolina must implement and institutionalize a professional, targeted voter registration.  It defies logic that with the Republican Party declining in public approval that Democrats in North Carolina are not gaining ground in voter registration.             

RELATED ARTICLES: 

            TPJ, A SLOW DECLINE (2006) (Latest voter registration statistics in North Carolina.) 

            TPJ, THE NC REPUBLICAN STRATEGY – RIGHT, RELIGIOUS (2006) (TPJ details Republican voter registration efforts among fundamentalist churches.) 

            TPJ, NC VOTER REGISTRATION (2005) (TPJ surveys the need for emphasis on registering younger voters who are decidedly trending Democratic.)

                        AVOIDING SOUTH DAKOTA 

The Common Sense Foundation (“CSF”), a TPJ favorite, has published a warning that North Carolina could become“South Dakota” for women’s reproductive rights. 

In the wake of South Dakota ’s devastating ban on all abortions deemed unnecessary to save a woman’s life, many are taking a renewed look at the state of choice here at home.  And while the precedents set forth by Roe v. Wade may not face as dire a threat here in North Carolina just yet, over the past years we have seen a steady chipping-away at reproductive freedoms that should make all pro-choice advocates ill at ease.

 

Earlier this year, North Carolina earned a “D” on a report card issued by one of the nation’s leading abortion advocacy groups, NARAL Pro-Choice America.  The annual report from NARAL (available by clicking here) examined the abortion laws and legislative make-up of each state, as well as the possible impact of a future Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade.

 

NARAL’s report on the Tar Heel state found that 78 percent of North Carolina counties do not have an abortion provider, and that the General Assembly is “mixed” on the issue of abortion.

 

Also enumerated were other specific state laws that place undue burdens on women seeking information on or access to legal abortions, including laws that limit access to abortion for young and low-income women.

 

Pro-choice advocates must work to make sure that the anti-choice movement gains no ground this year in the General Assembly.  The health and safety of women across this state depends on it. 

CFS is correct, reproductive rights have and will come under attack in North Carolina.   

IF North Carolina Republicans regain majority status in the General Assembly, North Carolina will, without question, join South Dakota.  Below are some of the bills that North Carolina Republicans introduced in the General Assembly during the last session.  Individually and especially collectively, they represent a breathtaking assault on reproductive rights. 

Democrats in the General Assembly prevented these bills, and others, from becoming law in this State.   

The simple message is that every person who believes in reproductive rights must be about electing Democrats to the General Assembly.  With a very slim majority of the Democrats holding the State House there is no room for error and there is every need to become active in the upcoming elections.

                        GAS TAX  

TPJ has Republican readers.  One recently wrote this question to which TPJ’s response follows: 

How do progressive Dems in the state feel about capping the gas tax? I know there is strong support on our side and always curious to hear a perspective on an issue that I consider populist in nature and a regressive tax as well.           

Republicans have called for a special session of the North Carolina General Assembly to roll back automatic increase in the gasoline tax of 2.8 cents that came into effect in North Carolina recently.  If gasoline prices remains high, the automatic gas tax formula, adjusted quarterly, based on 17.5 cents + 7% of wholesale price of gasoline will increase again.   

For tax cutting Republicans, the issue seems perfect.   In an election year and with many North Carolinians struggling to make ends meet, they can focus on “unburdening” North Carolinians of another tax.   For some progressive Democrats concerned about the effect of the tax on lower income North Carolinians, the need to freeze the gas tax seems compelling. 

Lost in the initial political posturing are some important facts: 

While North Carolina’s gasoline tax is in the sixth highest nationally, North Carolina has more miles of road infrastructure than all other states except Texas. 

 

North Carolina’s population is growing.  North Carolina's population increased by more than 142,000 people last year, tying it with Texas and Georgia as the fifth fastest-growing state in the country.  -- U.S. Census Bureau.  

 

As North Carolina’s roads “age,” there already exists a need for road improvement and repair. 

 

Coupled with the need for new roads, there is a “gap” between revenue and the cost of basic road needs.   

The gap between revenue and road repair is substantial.  The conservative John Locke Foundation found: 

The cost to bring the [road] system up to prudent status, and fund major widening and planned new roads is about $27.8 billion. Under current funding policies, about $24.1 billion is likely to be available for pavement repair, major widening, and new construction over the next 8 years. Thus, the gap between needs and likely disbursements is about $3.75 billion over 8 years. If highway spending were increased by this amount, the economic impact to North Carolina would be about $747 million annually, or about 7629 jobs. – John Locke Foundation   

A study by UNC Charlotte ranked: 

NC 35th (15th worst) nationwide in 1998, down from 8th in 1990. According to the latest statistics, NC ranked poorly compared with other states: 45th in poor-condition rural Interstates, 43rd for poor-condition urban Interstates, 39th in poor-condition major rural roads, 38th in deficient bridges, 38th in urban Interstate congestion, 35th in fatal accident rate, and 36th in percentage of narrow lanes on major rural roads. These statistics are considerably worse than those of other large-system states, and lower than nearby states. On the other hand, North Carolina’s road spending rates, per mile of responsibility, are very efficient, that is low expenditures relative to other states. In recent years the state’s focus on maintenance has fallen from 35.1 percent of the highway budget in 1984 to 25.3 percent in 1998. The state’s road system is in uneven condition around the state, generally in worse shape in the western and piedmont counties than in eastern counties.  

Another problem that has been documented is the need to widen a substantial percentage of North Carolina’s older roads. 

The benefits of lane widening are also substantial. The study referenced above (Zeeger et al, 1988) indicated that lane widening was shown to reduce accident rates by 12 percent for 1 foot of widening, 23 percent for 2 feet of widening, and 32 percent for 3 feet of widening. For the North Carolina data, an average widening of 3.6 feet would likely produce an accident reduction of about 35 percent, for that portion of the system improved. This is a substantial reduction, but probably not as cost effective as the shoulder widening discussed earlier, since the cost is much higher. There would also be some minor benefits related to increased capacity, for those roads that are simultaneously congested and have narrow lanes. 

In sum, North Carolina needs additional revenue to build new roads to: 

Create jobs; and
 Reduce accidents 

Now, compare road needs to the cost of the last automatic increase in the gas tax.  The last increase would cost the average North Carolinian the sum of  

$15.00 PER YEAR. 

The amount raised from that increase will go a long way in closing the gap in funding and make roads safer.     

The Democratic Party leadership in the General Assembly responded to the Republican tax cut mantra by launching a joint House and Senate committee to study the problem.  The Committee specifically questioned oil industry interests if they would promise that if the gas tax were capped that the savings, though small, would be passed to the consumer.  Oil interests declined to make such a commitment.  

The real culprit is not the gas tax in North Carolina; it is the price of gasoline.  While Republicans want to cut the gas tax, a cut North Carolina will never really see in their pockets, North Carolina’s needs for roads will not be met, and North Carolina economic development and jobs as noted by the John Locke Foundation will be lost.  At the same time, “crude oil prices have risen steadily from about $20 a barrel in 2002 to over $75 last week, handing oil and gas companies a long-running profit bonanza.”  

Republicans at the national level are simply unwilling to address that issue.  For example, Bush has announced that he will not support a windfall profit tax. 

The gas tax can be regressive.  North Carolina should consider a tax credit for lower income citizens to address that problem. 

Additionally, every penny raised from the gas tax should be spent on North Carolina’s roads.  No exceptions.   

In its last report, even the John Locke Foundation recommended that funding for state highways be increased: 

This analysis suggests that road funding should be increased, particularly in maintenance categories, if North Carolina is to improve its road system compared to other states. . . .  One alternative, obviously, is to increase road user taxes, particularly gasoline and diesel taxes. However, North Carolina’s state fuel taxes – 22.3 cents/gallon for both gasoline and diesel fuel - are already quite high relative to other states , and further increases might jeopardize the state’s economic growth. However, in the last 2 years about 6 states have raised taxes to meet the funding needs . . . .  Also, some states have a differential tax, that is diesel fuel is taxed at a higher rate than gasoline. If a tax increase is contemplated this option should be explored. 

While TPJ rarely finds cause to agree with the John Locke Foundation, we do so in this case.

TAR HEEL DEM CELLAR