archived: 18 - 24 Jun, 2006         Back                 Next

UPDATED: JUNE 20, 2006                         

                        OFFENSE 

Democrats in the US Senate are going on the offense, pushing for a vote on a planned withdrawal from Iraq: 

Democrats plan to offer a resolution in the U.S. Senate on Tuesday seeking a timetable for a phased withdrawal from Iraq, California Sen. Dianne Feinstein said on Sunday. . . .

The House of Representatives last week approved a nonbinding resolution which rejected a deadline for U.S. troops to leave Iraq and called the conflict there part of the broader war on terrorism.

"Three years and three months and a bogging down, I think, suggests that the time has come for some discussion on where we go from here," Feinstein said, also interviewed on CNN.

"I don't know why we are so afraid to stand up and say, 'look, we want to see an end to this thing'," she said.

Feinstein argued an open-ended deployment was unsustainable for the U.S. military, which needed to be free to deal with growing problems in Afghanistan and elsewhere. . . .

Last week the Senate voted 93-6 to put aside an amendment from Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry, the Democrats' 2004 presidential candidate, to withdraw U.S. forces by the end of this year.

Kerry was angry that Republicans put to a vote his amendment, which was still being crafted and would work with colleagues this week on his amendment plans, said his spokeswoman, April Boyd.

"John Kerry has been calling for a clear deadline for withdrawal and will not take the heat off the Iraqi leaders to do their job and stand up for their own country," she said. 

A cable from the US Embassy in Iraq obtained by the Washington Post reinforces why Democrats must continue to make the case against the war: 

-- "Personal safety depends on good relations with the 'neighborhood' governments, who barricade streets and ward off outsiders. The central government, our staff says, is not relevant; even local mukhtars have been displaced or coopted by militias. People no longer trust most neighbors."

-- One embassy employee had a brother-in-law kidnapped. Another received a death threat, and then fled the country with her family.

-- Iraqi staff at the embassy, beginning in March and picking up in May, report "pervasive" harassment from Islamist and/or militia groups. Cuts in power and rising fuel prices "have diminished the quality of life." Conditions vary but even upscale neighborhoods "have visibly deteriorated" and one of them is now described as a "ghost town."

-- Two of the three female Iraqis in the public affairs office reported stepped-up harassment since mid-May...."some groups are pushing women to cover even their face, a step not taken in Iran even at its most conservative." One of the women is now wearing a full abaya after receiving direct threats.

-- It has also become "dangerous" for men to wear shorts in public and "they no longer allow their children to play outside in shorts." People who wear jeans in public have also come under attack.

-- Embassy employees are held in such low esteem their work must remain a secret and they live with constant fear that their cover will be blown. Of nine staffers, only four have told their families where they work. They all plan for their possible abductions. No one takes home their cell phones as this gives them away. One employee said criticism of the U.S. had grown so severe that most of her family believes the U.S. "is punishing populations as Saddam did."

-- Since April, the "demeanor" of guards in the Green Zone has changed, becoming more "militia-like," and some are now "taunting" embassy personnel or holding up their credentials and saying loudly that they work in the embassy: "Such information is a death sentence if overheard by the wrong people." For this reason, some have asked for press instead of embassy credentials.

-- "For at least six months, we have not been able to use any local staff members for translation at on-camera press events....We cannot call employees in on weekends or holidays without blowing their 'cover.'"

-- "More recently, we have begun shredding documents printed out that show local staff surnames. In March, a few staff members approached us to ask what provisions would we make for them if we evacuate."

-- The overall environment is one of "frayed social networks," with frequent actual or perceived insults. None of this is helped by lack of electricity. "One colleague told us he feels 'defeated' by circumstances, citing his example of being unable to help his two-year-old son who has asthma and cannot sleep in stifling heat," which is now reaching 115 degrees.

-- "Another employee tell us that life outside the Green Zone has become 'emotionally draining.' He lives in a mostly Shiite area and claims to attend a funeral 'every evening.'"

-- Fuel lines have grown so long that one staffer spent 12 hours in line on his day off. "Employees all confirm that by the last week of May, they were getting one hour of power for every six hours without. ... One staff member reported that a friend lives in a building that houses a new minister; within 24 hours of his appointment, her building had city power 24 hours a day."

-- The cable concludes that employees' "personal fears are reinforcing divisive sectarian or ethnic channels, despite talk of reconciliation by officials."

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                        A GAME OF 270 

The 2008 Presidential election may have been decided this week, with only one vote cast – President Bush’s vote.  Bush, exercising legitimate authority as President, declared a large segment of remote Hawaiian waters as a national monument.   

Environmentalists are hailing Bush’s designation:               

US President George W Bush has designated a swathe of Hawaiian islands as a US national monument, making them the world's largest marine sanctuary.

He signed a law on Thursday which will give the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands the highest protected status in US law.

The area, nearly as big as California, supports more than 7,000 species, a quarter of which occur nowhere else.

Environmental groups welcomed the decision, although fishing industry bodies have raised concerns.

The designated site - more than 140,000 sq miles (362,000 sq km) of reefs, atolls and shallow seas - is just larger than the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park in Australia, previously the world's largest protected marine area.

The remote and uninhabited islands and surrounding seas are important breeding grounds for sea turtles, and are home to the only remaining population of the endangered Hawaiian monk seal.

The new restrictions will mean all fishing is phased out within five years and visitors will need permits to snorkel or dive in the area.

The islands were already being considered for designation as a national marine sanctuary.

Now, however, Mr Bush has used his powers under the 1906 National Antiquities Act, which allows the president to give instant protection to important sites, in a decision which will bypass a year-long process of consultation and afford a greater level of protection.  

Why would Bush; whose environmental record is, at best, dismal and whose administration routinely scrubs its own scientific reports suggesting global warming is real, take such a bold move?  For cynics the answer might just be four Electoral College votes. 

            Democratic Conventional Wisdom 

Hawaii has four electoral votes, but those votes are critical to Republican plans for holding the White House in 2008.  Conventional wisdom in Democratic Party circles is to win the 2008 election by holding all of the states that Kerry/Edwards won in 2004 and capturing either Ohio or Florida.  It is a winning strategy, IF, and only IF, Democrats can hold all of the states that they won in 2004.  Bush’s action in Hawaii is designed as a defense to the Democratic Party formula for victory in 2008. 

            The Ohio Defense  

The Republican Party in Ohio is in serious trouble.  Ohio’s Republican Governor has had severe moral lapses and his standing in the polls is at the bottom of any Governor in the United States.  His administration has also been rocked by corruption which has led to the conviction of several ranking Republicans.  At the moment, Democrats appear to be headed to capturing the Governorship in 2006 and a US Senate Seat.  

If Democrats recapture Ohio, the State’s elections machinery will be run by Democrats in 2008.  For those Democrats who believe that Bush’s 2004 victory in Ohio was the result of tampering and illegal vote suppression tactics, that possibility should not be replicated under a Democratic administration.  

Assuming that Democrats can recapture Ohio in 2008, Republicans can still win the White House by capturing Hawaii’s four electoral votes.  The Chart immediately below has each Party duplicating their 2004 wins, except for Ohio and Hawaii; Democrats capturing Ohio and Republicans capturing Hawaii.  Republicans retain 270 electoral votes and the Presidency. 

            The Florida Defense  

Hawaii’s importance also extends to the possibility that Republicans lose Florida, which was crucial to their 2000 electoral victory.  While Democrats recapturing Florida in 2008 is a more remote possibility than Ohio, Florida has been highly competitive in 2000 and 2004.   

Florida has 27 electoral votes compared to Ohio’s 20, therefore, the Florida defense strategy requires offsetting its potential loss with two states; Hawaii with four electoral votes and Wisconsin with 10 electoral votes. 

Democrats squeaked out a victory in Wisconsin in 2004, by just over 10,000 votes, with Nader nearly playing the spoiler with a mere 16,000 votes: 

Democratic Governor Jim Doyle was elected in 2002 and stands for reelection this year.  His personal approval rating as of May 2006 is reflected in the chart below: 

A recent Rasmussen poll has Gov. Doyle barely leading his Republican opponent; 47% to 43%.  Any incumbent under 50% at this stage of the election is not in a clear winning position.      

Therefore, Republican possibilities of capturing Wisconsin in 2008 are real, and with the possibilities in Wisconsin Republicans have a key to their Florida defense.  The scenario is represented in the chart immediately below: