archived: 11 - 17 Jun, 2006 Back Next
THE BOUNCE
June polling confirms that Bush is getting a small bounce in the polls, with Bush’s approval rating in mid-June up +1.83 over his May average. The bounce follows four consecutive trailing month declines.
The polls are rather inconsistent in showing the bounce. The chart immediately below reflects the change for each polling firm reporting in June, see the chart at the conclusion of this article, from their most recent previous published poll in May.
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NBC/Wall Street Journal +1.00% |
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CBS -2.00% |
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USA Today/Gallup + 7.00% |
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AP-Ipsos * +2.00% |
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Cook/RT Strategies 0.00% |
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Gallup + 5.00% |
While CBS actually records Bush’s approval rating down by -2.00%, both polls conducted by Gallup show a +5.00 and + 7.00% increase. TPJ believes that these extremes represent the “house effects” in polling; Gallup representing an overstatement of Bush’s approval rating and CBS’ poll understating Bush’s approval rating. A few more polls to be released next week may provide a clearer picture, but our view is that the NBC/Wall Street Journal and AP-Ipsos polls are more indicative of Bush’s current public standing.
Most importantly, Bush has been “playing” to his base supporters for almost a month. He has pushed a constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage and his Congressional allies are promising to return to Social Security privatization next year as just two examples. Some current events have been favorable; the completion of the Iraqi government and Bush’s flight into Iraq to celebrate the event.
Fundamentally, Bush still faces serious impediments to major gains in pubic approval. Inflation, fueled by gasoline prices, is biting the average American family and world financial markets. The killing in Iraq continues to grind on as the cost of the war is ever increasing.
The interplay between upcoming developments, Bush’s play to resecure his political base and Democrats ability to focus their policy message in the coming weeks will largely determine how “high” and “long” Bush’s bounce will be.
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Approve |
Trail Mo |
Disapprove |
No Opinion |
Spread |
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NBC/Wall Street Journal |
6/9-12/06 |
37 |
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58 |
5 |
-21 |
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CBS |
6/10-11/06 |
33 |
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60 |
7 |
-27 |
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USA Today/Gallup |
6/9-11/06 |
38 |
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56 |
6 |
-18 |
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AP-Ipsos * |
6/5-7/06 |
35 |
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63 |
2 |
-28 |
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Cook/RT Strategies RV |
6/1-4/06 |
37 |
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57 |
6 |
-20 |
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Gallup |
6/1-4/06 |
36 |
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57 |
6 |
-21 |
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June Average |
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36.00 |
1.83 |
58.50 |
5.33 |
-22.50 |
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2006 |
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May Average |
34.17 |
-1.58 |
60.33 |
5.91 |
-26.17 |
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April Average |
35.75 |
-1.35 |
57.75 |
6.82 |
-22.00 |
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March Average |
37.10 |
-2.54 |
57.30 |
5.80 |
-20.20 |
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February Average |
39.64 |
-2.42 |
55.21 |
5.23 |
-15.57 |
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January Average |
42.07 |
1.32 |
53.27 |
5.07 |
-11.20 |
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2005 |
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December Average |
40.75 |
2.83 |
54.25 |
6.33 |
-13.50 |
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November Average |
37.92 |
-1.93 |
56.46 |
6.09 |
-18.54 |
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October Average |
39.86 |
-1.46 |
55.07 |
5.58 |
-15.21 |
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September Average |
41.31 |
-1.91 |
53.75 |
4.81 |
-12.44 |
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August Average |
43.22 |
-2.38 |
52.33 |
4.33 |
-9.11 |
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July Average |
45.60 |
0.60 |
49.00 |
5.30 |
-3.40 |
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June Average |
45.00 |
-1.50 |
49.83 |
5.33 |
-4.83 |
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May Average |
46.50 |
-1.10 |
48.33 |
5.17 |
-1.83 |
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April Average |
47.60 |
-1.28 |
49.00 |
3.20 |
-1.40 |
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March Average |
48.88 |
-1.13 |
46.00 |
5.13 |
2.88 |
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February Average |
50.00 |
-1.00 |
46.29 |
3.71 |
3.71 |
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January Average |
51.00 |
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44.71 |
4.00 |
6.29 |
Last Update: 06/18/2006